【作者】 贺皓； 姜创业； 蔡新玲；

【Author】 He Hao, Jiang Chuangye, Cai Xinling(Shanxi Professional Meteorology Observatory, Xi’an 710015)

【机构】 陕西省专业气象台；

【摘要】 <正> 1 引言目前,数值预报模式多样,输出产品丰富,研制客观的使用技术是各级气象台预报研究的重大课题。特别在专业预报服务中,用户生产过程需要解决的气象问题种类繁多,客观化的应用技术开发研究显得尤为重要,如高速公路大雾预报即是如此。在近几年的降水预报中,动力释用技术,统计释用方法,都取得了比较明显的效果。对于连续性变量,如湿度、高度场有卡尔曼(kalman)滤波方法;近年来,各地高速公路发展迅猛,成为经济建设的先行者,制约高速公路的更多还原

【Abstract】 Numerical forecast model exports meteorological elements at intervals of an hour. This paper explores explanation and application technique for heavy fog, over the advanced highway in Shanxi province, by use of the products, such as moisture (f), wind (v) and temperature (t) that are exported from the non- stastic mesoscale model mm5. There are three technical methods. The first is called PPI, namely the perfect prediction index method, which is designed on the basis of forecast object having definite critical value to certain meteorological element. The second is called the model output model (MOM), which can develop forecast rules and complete forecast process according to the output productions once an hour from MM5, as well as forecast experience. The third method is called the model error correction method (MEC), which is devised to minimize the error, considering that the output results of the model have errors. These methods above attain satisfactory effects in practical operational prediction.更多还原