【作者】 纪忠萍； 谢炯光； 谷德军；

【Author】 Ji Zhongping, Xie Jiongguang, Gu Dejun(Guangzhou Center Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080; Guangzhou Institude of Tropical and Oceanic Meteorology, Guangzhou 510080)

【机构】 广州中心气象台； 广州热带海洋气象研究所；

【摘要】 <正> 1 引言小波变换自近年运用于大气科学的研究中以来,主要用来分析天气、气候的演变规律以及大气湍流的研究[1～5],侧重分析其中存在的各种扰动尺度随时间的分布,看清其详细结构。运用它做预报,大多是根据其演变规律,定性地分析出未来的趋势。本文从定量的角度来研究广州逐月平均温度的变化、前、后汛期的雨量趋势、登陆或严重影响广东的热带气旋年频数,以及开汛期、台风初始日期、终止日期。更多还原

【Abstract】 The quantitative forecast using wavelet transformation (WT) was introduced. It was relied on the set up equation that based on the relationship between the maximum Wf (wavelet coefficient) and A (the vibration amplitude showed in wavelet coefficient chart). In the forecast equation ,the main oscillation periods were got by queuing the A (shown in the wavelet coefficient chart of recent years) from big to small, the coefficients are obtained by using the Least-Square Method. Using the data of Guangzhou monthly temperature (1908 - 1998), the experimental forecast was done by changing the two parameter (number of main periods and the data length of recent years) ,and when the parameter was best got , the average prediction accuracy of monthly temperature in 1997- 1998 was up to 83.4% . Using the data of rainfall in rainy seasons, yearly frequency of tropical cyclone that landed in Guangdong, tropical cyclone that made the yearly first and last landfall, the first date that begin the rainy season, the forecasted on them were respectively done from 2000 to 2002, and they were also reported in the conference about weather forecast of the rainy season hold by Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center in 2000 and 2001, and shown a better result.更多还原