【作者】 王博；

【导师】 孙慧； 马春亭；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理， 2023， 硕士

【副题名】以A公司产业园类投资项目为例

【摘要】 产业地产能够作为土地财政的补充,项目建成后招商引资、带动就业、提供税收,也能够聚集产业,推动产业升级,所以迅速成为当下发展热门。但是产业地产的投资所需要的资金量大、回收周期长,投资过程时间跨度大,所面临的风险因素非常多且复杂,涉及到内部、外部及各专业的多种风险,投资者需要了解不同的风险会对投资产生何种影响。因此,准确识别产业地产投资风险,研究其层次结构并对风险进行准确的测量就显得极其重要。本文在通过阅读大量的相关文献基础上,首先利用产业集群、风险管理等概念和理论,确定了研究范围,初步筛选了产业地产项目投资风险因素;其次,通过三轮专家访谈和调研,并建立了相应的风险评价指标体系;第三,通过专家打分,确定了投资风险评价指标权重矩阵,并采用直觉模糊层次分析法对模糊矩阵进行一致性检验和指标修正,确定产业地产项目投资风险评价指标权重;最后,以A公司东莞项目为例,采用模糊综合评价法构建风险评价模型,应用模型对项目风险进行了定量分析。通过研究发现,当前产业地产项目的投资风险等级处于较高状态。其中,融资、地价、市场供求、税收政策、金融政策和管理者经验6个风险因素发生的可能性最大,所产生的影响也最严重,这其中绝大多数的风险都是来自于外部的不可控因素;而风险等级属于“一般”及以上的风险因素在所有主要风险因素中占比超过了50%。对于投资者而言,所投资项目面临的风险一定要深入研究,充分意识到外部环境变化对投资收益的影响,做好风险应对预案。基于以上研究结论和案例分析结果,本文对所有发生可能性投票都在“一般”及以上的风险因素和项目整体风险提出了风险规避建议。研究结论能够为A公司东莞项目风险管理提供指导,基于评价模型和实际案例的分析结果,可以为产业地产投资者提供投资决策的借鉴和参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Industrial real estate can be used as a supplement to land finance,after the completion of the project to attract investment,promote employment,provide tax revenue,but also to gather industries,promote industrial upgrading,so quickly become the current hot development.However,the investment of industrial real estate requires a large amount of capital,a long recovery cycle,a large time span in the investment process,and a lot of complex risk factors,involving a variety of internal,external and professional risks,investors need to understand how different risks will affect the investment.Therefore,it is extremely important to accurately identify the risk of industrial real estate investment,study its hierarchy and measure the risk accurately.On the basis of reading a large number of relevant literatures,this thesis first uses the concepts and theories of industrial cluster and risk management to determine the scope of the research,and initially screens the risk factors of investment in industrial real estate projects.Secondly,through three rounds of expert interviews and research,and establish the corresponding risk assessment index system;Thirdly,the weight matrix of investment risk evaluation index is determined through expert scoring,and the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to test the consistency of the fuzzy matrix and revise the index to determine the weight of industrial real estate project investment risk evaluation index.Finally,taking the Dongguan project of A Company as an example,the risk assessment model is constructed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and the project risk is quantitatively analyzed by the model.It is found that seven risk factors,namely financing,land price,market supply and demand,tax policy,financial policy and management experience,are most likely to occur and have the most serious impact.Most of these risks are from external uncontrollable factors.Through the research,it is found that the investment risk level of the current industrial real estate project is in a high state.Among them,seven risk factors,namely financing,land price,market supply and demand,tax policy,financial policy and management experience,are the most likely to occur and have the most serious impact.Most of these risks are from external uncontrollable factors.Risk factors rated"average"and above accounted for more than 50%of all major risk factors.For investors,the risks faced by investment projects must be thoroughly studied,fully aware of the impact of external environment changes on investment returns,and make risk response plans.Based on the above research conclusions and case analysis results,this paper puts forward risk avoidance suggestions for all risk factors whose probability of occurrence is"average"or above and the overall risk of the project.The research conclusions can provide guidance for the project risk management of Company A in Dongguan.Based on the evaluation model and the analysis results of actual cases,they can provide reference for the investment decision-making of industrial real estate investors.更多还原