【作者】 李慧；

【导师】 张桥云；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 2023年10月30日-31日,中央金融工作会议从战略高度做出部署,强化金融监管效能,切实防范化解金融风险,筑牢我国系统性风险防范的安全屏障。会议指出,经济金融风险隐患较多,金融工作的主题始终是防控风险。商业银行面临的风险复杂多样,信用风险受宏观经济环境影响显著,是主要风险来源。近年来,城商行不良贷款率在抬升后逐步压降,信贷资产质量呈现改善趋势。城商行面临多重风险叠加压力:一方面,制造业信贷领域不良贷款率呈现边际递增态势,信用风险持续积聚;另一方面,房地产行业流动性风险通过供应链关联及抵押品价值重估渠道,形成跨行业风险传导链条。2009年4月,原银监会下发《关于中小商业银行分支机构市场准入政策的调整意见(试行)》,允许符合条件的中小银行在相关地域设立分支机构,该政策既解除了分支机构设立的数量管制,又放松了对各分支机构运营资金的要求。经过多年的发展,截至2024年12月,全国共有124家城市商业银行,包括分行、支行、分理处在内的全国分支机构超2万家,不仅实现了全国绝大多数省份的业务覆盖,更在区域经济发展进程中承担着重要使命。城市商业银行作为中小银行,管理能力和风控措施同大银行相比较为薄弱,但强于同为中小银行的农村商业银行,其异地扩张分支机构行为是否加剧了自身风险?基于此,本文选取我国96家城市商业银行2010-2021年的数据,构建衡量业务地理集中度的指数变量HHI,从实证角度探讨我国城市商业银行的信用风险与其业务地理集中度之间的关系。作为商业银行的主要风险来源,信用风险始终占据重要地位。本文选择以信用风险为切入点来研究银行风险。结果发现:我国城市商业银行业务地理集中能够显著降低其信用风险,但同时,城商行业务地理集中对其信用风险存在“U”型特征,这说明地理集中或扩张均要具有适度性,既不可过度扩张,也不可过度集中。此外,贷款集中度会削弱城商行业务地理集中对信用风险的抑制作用;其次,城商行业务地理集中的避险效应主要存在于总部位于南方城市、资产规模较小、金融科技水平较高、第一大股东性质为非国有和低股权集中度的银行中;通过进一步分析发现,城市商业银行业务地理集中与信用风险水平呈现出典型的门限效应特征,具体而言,当信用风险处于较低区间时,地理集中策略能够发挥风险缓释功能;然而,一旦信用风险突破临界值,适度推进地理多元化布局则显现出显著的风险分散效应。最后,基于理论机制分析和实证检验结果,从政府监管和城商行自身发展两方面给出建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Central Financial Work Conference held on October 30-31,2023 made strategic deployments to enhance financial regulatory effectiveness,effectively prevent and resolve financial risks,and strengthen China’s systemic risk prevention safeguards.The conference highlighted numerous economic and financial risks,emphasizing that risk prevention and control remain the central theme of financial work.Commercial banks face complex and diverse risks,with credit risk being significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions and constituting a primary risk source.Although city commercial banks(CCBs)have gradually reduced their non-performing loan(NPL)ratios in recent years,showing improved credit asset quality,they now confront multiple risk factors:manufacturing sector NPL ratios exhibit a marginal increase,indicating accumulating credit risks,while real estate sector liquidity risks propagate across industries through supply chain linkages and collateral value reassessment channels.In April 2009,the former China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the"Adjustment Opinions on Market Access Policies for Branches of Small and Medium-sized Commercial Banks(Trial)",allowing qualified small and medium-sized banks to establish branches in relevant regions,lifting restrictions on both the number of branches and their operating capital requirements.By December 2024,China had 124 CCBs operating over 20,000 branches nationwide,covering most provinces and playing a significant role in regional economic development.Compared to large commercial banks,CCBs demonstrate relatively weaker management capabilities and risk control measures,though they outperform rural commercial banks of similar scale.This raises the question:does the geographic expansion of CCBs exacerbate their risk exposure?This study examines the relationship between credit risk and geographic concentration of CCBs in China,utilizing data from 96 CCBs from 2010 to 2021and constructing a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI)to measure business geographic concentration.The findings reveal that geographic concentration significantly reduces credit risk,while exhibiting a U-shaped relationship,suggesting that both geographic concentration and expansion should be moderate.Furthermore,loan concentration weakens the risk mitigation effect of geographic concentration.The risk mitigation effect is particularly evident in CCBs headquartered in southern cities,with smaller asset sizes,higher fintech adoption,non-state-owned major shareholders,and lower equity concentration.Additional analysis identifies a threshold effect between geographic concentration and credit risk levels:geographic concentration demonstrates risk mitigation effects when credit risk is low,while moderate geographic diversification shows significant risk dispersion effects once credit risk exceeds a critical threshold.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical findings,policy recommendations are provided from both regulatory and CCB development perspectives.更多还原