【作者】 李倩；

【导师】 王晓琴；

【作者基本信息】 云南师范大学 ， 运动训练（专业学位）， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 2022年,云南省开展了首届射箭校际联赛,共有44支队伍参赛,成为体教融合的一次重要实践。2024年9月,云南省体育局正式发布了《关于将进一步全面深化改革推进体育强省建设的若干措施》文件,明确提出要构建体教融合多元化发展格局,将优化青少年体育竞赛体系、深化体教融合,以此全面促进青少年健康发展。目前云南省射箭校际联赛仅举办三届,正处于发展初期,为促进云南省射箭校际联赛可持续发展,需审视发展中存在的问题。基于此,本文采用文献资料法、德尔菲法、系统动力学等方法对云南省射箭校际联赛可持续发展情况进行研究。首先,调查云南省射箭校际联赛的基本情况;其次,通过德尔菲法构建联赛可持续发展指标体系,并采用层次分析法确立指标权重;最后,引入系统动力学方法,建立联赛可持续发展模型,对联赛可持续发展趋势进行模拟仿真。主要研究结果如下:第一,云南省射箭校际联赛开始于2022年,由云南省体育局及教育厅联合主办,目的在于促进射箭运动在中小学生群体中的普及与发展。通过调查发现:参赛队伍数量由最初的44支减少至16支,且多数参赛者为首次参与,反映出参赛队伍数量具有较大的波动性;运动员对赛事的满意度较高,但部分运动员存在学训矛盾;教练员队伍学历层次以本科及以上为主,呈现出年轻化特点;裁判员普遍具有较长的执裁年限。第二,云南省射箭校际联赛可持续发展指标体系中一级指标由数量指标、质量指标、发展指标共3项构成,二级指标由运动员数量、参赛队伍数量、运动员状况、赛事运营/组织质量、政策支持等共14项构成,三级指标由俱乐部运动员数量、学校运动员数量、赛事影响力、竞赛水平等共59项构成。其中一级指标权重系数由高到低依次为质量指标(0.5235)、发展指标(0.3084)、数量指标(0.1681)。第三,运用Vensim PLE软件,绘制云南省射箭校际联赛可持续发展系统因果反馈回路与存量流量图,模型与现实系统的拟合度良好,误差率属于±10%的范围,说明模型可信度较高。第四,模拟仿真结果显示,联赛现有的发展模式是不可持续发展的。首先,提升体教融合力度后参赛运动员人数和参赛队伍数量较现有发展模式有所增加,该模式是云南省射箭校际联赛可持续发展的基础;其次,赛事和旅游相结合模式是云南省射箭校际联赛可持续发展需突破的方向;最后,协同整合模式中各观察指标均比前三个模式呈现出较为明显的增长趋势,从数量、质量、发展三个维度同时推进,是联赛可持续发展较为理想的模式。得出以下研究结论:联赛参赛队伍数量波动较大,存在持续性不足等问题,模拟仿真结果显示现有发展模式不利于联赛的可持续发展。为促进云南省射箭校际联赛可持续发展,建议如下:(1)完善体教融合的青少年体育赛事体系;(2)发挥区域优势促进赛事和旅游融合;(3)整合各类竞赛资源,发挥协同联动作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2022,Yunnan Province launched the first archery inter-school league,with a total of 44 teams participating,which has become an important practice of the integration of sports and education.In September 2024,the Yunnan Provincial Sports Bureau officially issued the document"Several Measures to Further Deepen the Reform and Promote the Construction of a Strong Sports Province",which clearly proposes to build a diversified development pattern of sports and education integration,optimize the youth sports competition system,and deepen the integration of sports and education,so as to comprehensively promote the healthy development of young people.At present,the Yunnan Archery Intercollegiate League has only been held for three sessions,and it is in the early stage of development,so in order to promote the sustainable development of the Yunnan Archery Intercollegiate League,it is necessary to examine the problems in the development.Based on this,this paper uses the literature method,Delphi method and system dynamics to study the sustainable development of the archery intercollegiate league in Yunnan Province.Firstly,the basic situation of the archery inter-school league in Yunnan Province was investigated.Secondly,the index system of league sustainable development was constructed through the Delphi method,and the index weight was established by analytic hierarchy process.Finally,the system dynamics method was introduced to establish a model of league sustainable development,and the trend of league sustainable development was simulated.The main findings are as follows:First,the Yunnan Provincial Archery Inter-School League began in 2022 and was jointly sponsored by the Yunnan Provincial Sports Bureau and the Department of Education,with the aim of promoting the popularization and development of archery among primary and secondary school students.Through the survey,it was found that the number of participating teams decreased from the initial 44 to 16,and most of the participants participated for the first time,reflecting the large fluctuation of the number of participating teams.Athletes are more satisfied with the event,but some athletes have contradictions in learning and training.The educational level of the coach team is mainly bachelor’s degree or above,showing the characteristics of youthfulness;Referees generally have a long number of years of adjudication.Second,the first-level indicators in the sustainable development index system of the Yunnan Archery Intercollegiate League are composed of three quantitative indicators,quality indicators and development indicators,the second-level indicators are composed of 14 items,such as the number of athletes,the number of participating teams,the status of athletes,the quality of event operation/organization,and policy support,and the third-level indicators are composed of 59 items,such as the number of club athletes,the number of school athletes,the influence of the event,and the level of competition.The weight coefficients of the first-level indicators from high to low were quality index(0.5235),development index(0.3084)and quantitative index(0.1681).Thirdly,the Vensim PLE software was used to draw the causal feedback loop and stock flow diagram of the sustainable development system of the archery intercollegiate league in Yunnan Province,and the fitting degree between the model and the real system was good,and the error rate was between±10%,indicating that the credibility of the model was high.Fourth,the simulation results show that the original development model of the league is not sustainable.First of all,the number of participating athletes and teams has increased compared with the original development model,which is the basis for the sustainable development of the archery inter-school league in Yunnan Province.Secondly,the combination of events and tourism is the direction that needs to be broken through for the sustainable development of the archery intercollegiate league in Yunnan Province.Finally,compared with the first three models,all the observation indicators in the collaborative integration model show a more obvious growth trend,and the three dimensions of quantity,quality and development are promoted at the same time,which is an ideal model for the sustainable development of the league.The following conclusions are drawn:the number of teams participating in the league fluctuates greatly,and there are problems such as insufficient sustainability,and the simulation results show that the existing development model is not conducive to the sustainable development of the league.In order to promote the sustainable development of the archery inter-school league in Yunnan Province,the following suggestions are suggested:(1)improve the youth sports event system integrating sports and education;(2)give full play to regional advantages to promote the integration of events and tourism;(3)Integrate all kinds of competition resources and play a synergistic role.更多还原