【作者】 王琦；

【导师】 苏剑；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 政治经济学， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 作为东部沿海的重要经济省份,山东省在新型城镇化的推进方面成绩突出。2024年,该省城镇常住人口占比攀升至65.53%,比前一年增长了0.99%。这一进程通过产业融合、公共服务均等化和城乡基础设施一体化,为农民提供了更多就业机会和收入增长空间。国家政策推动农业转移人口市民化,山东省积极响应,印发《山东省新型城镇化建设行动方案(2024—2025年)》,提出到2025年城镇化率达到67%以上的目标。因而,本研究主要探讨新型城镇化如何影响农民收入,并通过实证分析展示其间的关联,旨在为政策决策提供支持。本文综合运用定性与定量、规范性与实证相结合的研究方法,构建了评价指标体系,利用熵值法对山东省16个地市2013—2023年的新型城镇化水平进行测算,根据测算结果可以看出,山东省多数城市在2013—2023年期间新型城镇化水平呈现出先上升后下降的波动变化的态势。随后基于面板数据模型,对新型城镇化与农民收入之间的关系进行了实证分析,同时控制了农业经济水平、对外开放、农民教育支出、政府财政支持等变量,以确保估计结果的准确性和可靠性。研究显示,山东省新型城镇化水平的提升显著促进了农民收入增加,并且在进行内生性和稳健性检验后,该结论仍然是可靠的。最后,本文通过异质性分析得出结论:不同经济圈和不同收入水平的农民群体均展现出显著差异。从经济圈角度看,胶东经济圈的城镇化对农民收入提升作用最为显著,鲁南经济圈次之,而省会经济圈的影响相对较小。从收入水平角度看,城镇化对低收入农民群体收入有显著正向影响,而对高收入群体则有轻微负向影响。基于研究结论,本文提出对策需从宏观制度供给到微观能力提升分层构建。宏观层面,优化财政支出结构,向“三农”关键领域倾斜,深化户籍与土地制度改革,释放城镇化制度红利;中观层面,依托经济圈产业特色推进产城融合,壮大县域经济以激活城镇化节点功能;微观层面,强化乡村教育资源配置与农民职业技能培训,提升非农就业质量以增强低收入群体增收能力。同时,建立经济圈协同机制缓解区域差异,防范城镇化对高收入群体的负向冲击,并通过生态农业与循环经济实现可持续发展,形成覆盖政策、产业、人力、区域及生态的多层次对策体系,推动新型城镇化与农民增收的深度协同。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a key economic province on the eastern seaboard,Shandong Province has a strong record of promoting new urbanization.2024,the proportion of the province’s resident population living in urban areas climbed to 65.53 percent,an increase of 0.99 percent from the previous year.This process has provided farmers with more employment opportunities and room for income growth through industrial integration,equalization of public services,and integration of urban and rural infrastructure.The national policy promotes the citizenship of the agricultural transfer population,and Shandong Province has responded positively by issuing the Action Program for the Construction of New Urbanization in Shandong Province(2024-2025),which sets the goal of reaching an urbanization rate of more than 67%by 2025.Thus,this study focuses on how new urbanization affects farmers’income and demonstrates the association through empirical analysis,aiming to provide support for policy decisions.This paper comprehensively uses the research methods combining qualitative and quantitative,normative and empirical evidence,constructs the evaluation index system,and uses the entropy value method to measure the new urbanization level of 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2023,and according to the results of the measurements,it can be seen that most of the cities in Shandong Province during the period of 2013-2023 The new urbanization level shows a fluctuating and changing trend of increasing and then decreasing.Subsequently,based on the panel data model,the relationship between new urbanization and farmers’ income was empirically analyzed,and variables such as the level of the agricultural economy,opening up to the outside world,farmers’ education expenditure,and the government’s financial support were also controlled to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the estimation results.The study shows that the increase in the level of new urbanization in Shandong Province significantly contributes to the increase in farmers’ income,and the conclusion remains reliable after endogeneity and robustness tests.Finally,the paper concludes through heterogeneity analysis that farmer groups in different economic circles and different income levels exhibit significant differences.From the perspective of economic circles,urbanization in Jiaodong Economic Circle has the most significant effect on farmers’ income enhancement,followed by Lunan Economic Circle,while the effect of provincial capital economic circle is relatively small.From the perspective of income level,urbanization has a significant positive effect on the income of low-income groups of farmers,while it has a slight negative effect on high-income groups.Based on the research findings,this article proposes that countermeasures need to be constructed in a hierarchical manner from macro institutional supply to micro capacity enhancement.At the macro level,we should optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure,tilt to the key areas of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers",deepen the reform of the registered residence and land system,and release the dividend of urbanization system;At the meso level,relying on the industrial characteristics of the economic circle,promote the integration of industry and city,strengthen the county-level economy to activate the function of urbanization nodes;At the micro level,strengthen the allocation of rural education resources and vocational skills training for farmers,improve the quality of non-agricultural employment,and enhance the ability of low-income groups to increase income.At the same time,establishing an economic circle coordination mechanism to alleviate regional differences,prevent the negative impact of urbanization on high-income groups,and achieve sustainable development through ecological agriculture and circular economy,forming a multi-level countermeasure system covering policies,industries,manpower,regions,and ecology,promoting the deep synergy between new urbanization and farmers’ income increase.更多还原