【作者】 陈晨；

【导师】 王旭；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 工商管理硕士（专业学位）， 2025， 硕士

【摘要】 作为我国国民经济重要支柱产业之一的房地产行业,随着我国城市化进展的飞速加快,房地产行业发展带动上下游产业,推动我国GDP的快速增长。然而,近年来一些房企过度依赖债务融资,采取“高杠杆-高风险”的激进扩张策略,在市场环境逐渐演变为“房不住炒”背离其单纯居住属性的同时,高风险运营的房企给市场经济埋下了巨大隐患。房地产作为重资金运营型行业,一旦面临销售去化率降低、回款不及时、融资受阻时,极易引发财务风险。与此同时,国家出台的宏观调控政策越来越严格,如“三道红线”、“集中供地”等政策,势必要改变部分企业高杠杆运营的属性。当时代红利被稀释后,房地产企业面对可能来临的“政策寒冬”,如何识别财务风险并且前置做好风险规避,在财务风险出现后上市企业还能够实现稳定的发展才是现阶段的关键。本文在梳理国内外相关文献的基础上,结合资本结构理论、优序融资理论、期限匹配理论等理论,以产业新城闻名房地产行业的HX集团为研究对象,运用文献研究法、案例分析法和定量与定性相结合的方法,分析研究其面临的财务风险、财务风险成因和应对措施。首先通过阅读文献分析总结财务风险和财务风险评价体系研究现状,对财务风险评价体系目前常用的方法进行归纳,并对本文研究的理论基础进行简要说明。然后从投融资、营运、盈利以及收益分配这四个财务活动过程对HX集团财务风险进行分析,并从内部和外部两个方向对HX集团财务风险成因进行分析。接下来,根据爬取的数据所划分的四个维度为基础,在先后运用主成因分析法对维度下的各项指标进行筛选和优化后,运用熵权TOPSIS法建立HX集团的财务风险评价体系,并进行实证分析,根据结果进行财务风险结果评价。最后,根据前文案例分析以及实证分析的结果,针对HX集团在投融资、营运、盈利以及收益分配这四个方面存在的财务风险提出具体的应对策略:投资方面需关注政策调整投资方向、深化国企合作关系;融资方面降低负债规模、优化资本结构、调整债务期限结构、创新融资渠道;营运方面加强自身造血功能以及经营活动现金流管理;收益分配方面建立合理的分配机制以及完善信息披露制度等措施。以上,通过对HX集团财务风险的研究,构建适合HX集团的财务风险评价体系,也为同行以及其他行业财务风险的评价提供一个新的思路。另外,还为HX集团控制财务风险提出了切实、可行的措施,该风险控制措施也可以为其他同类型企业控制财务风险提供一些启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real estate industry has achieved rapid development in the first two decades of this century,and gradually become one of the important pillar industries of China’s national economy.In recent years,some real estate enterprises have used debt capital to implement the“high leverage,high risk”rapid expansion mode of operation,in the market speculation mood,property gradually deviated from its purely residential properties at the same time,high-risk operation of real estate enterprises has also laid a huge hidden danger to the market economy.Real estate companies themselves as a heavy capital operation type of enterprise,once faced with a lower rate of realization,slow returns,financing difficulties,its financial situation is likely to deteriorate rapidly.At the same time,the state“three red lines”,“centralized land supply”and other increasingly stringent macro-control policies introduced,is bound to change some of the attributes of high-leverage operations.When the era of dividends are diluted,real estate companies face the possible arrival of the“policy winter”,listed companies how to solve the financial risks in advance to do a good job of risk warning,after the crisis to achieve stable development is the key at this stage.In this paper,on the basis of combing relevant literature at home and abroad,combined with the theory of capital structure,the theory of preferential financing,the theory of term matching and other theories,HX Group,which is famous for its new industrial city in the real estate industry,is the object of study,and analyzes and researches the financial risks it faces,the causes of the financial risks and the measures to deal with them by applying the method of literature research,the method of case study,and the method of combining the quantitative and qualitative methods.First of all,we summarize the current situation of financial risk and financial risk evaluation system research by reading the literature analysis,summarize the methods commonly used in the financial risk evaluation system at present,and briefly explain the theoretical basis of this paper’s research.Then the financial risk of HX Group is analyzed from the four processes of financial activities:investment and financing,operation,profitability and income distribution,and the causes of financial risk of HX Group are analyzed from both internal and external directions.Next,based on the four dimensions classified by the crawled data,after screening and optimizing the indicators under the dimensions by using the main cause analysis method successively,the entropy weight TOPSIS method is used to establish the financial risk evaluation system of HX Group and carry out the empirical analysis,and the financial risk results are evaluated according to the results.Finally,based on the results of the previous case study and empirical analysis,specific coping strategies are proposed for the financial risks of HX Group in the four aspects of investment and financing,operation,profitability and income distribution:investment should pay attention to the policy to adjust the direction of investment,and deepen the cooperation relationship between state-owned enterprises;financing to reduce the scale of liabilities,optimize the capital structure,adjust the maturity structure of the debt,and innovate the financing channels;operation to strengthen the self-blood-supporting function and the cash flow of operating activities;and the financial risk assessment system.In terms of financing,reduce the scale of liabilities,optimize the capital structure,adjust the debt maturity structure,and innovate financing channels;in terms of operation,strengthen the self-blood-forming function and cash flow management of operating activities;and in terms of income distribution,establish a reasonable distribution mechanism and improve the information disclosure system.Above all,through the study of HX Group’s financial risk,it matches HX Group with a financial risk evaluation system suitable for the enterprise,and also provides a new idea for the evaluation of financial risk of other enterprises of the same type and other industries.In addition,practical and feasible measures are proposed for HX Group to control financial risk,and the risk control measures can also provide some insights for other enterprises of the same type to control financial risk.更多还原