【作者】 王阳；

【导师】 郅庭瑾；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 公共管理（专业学位）， 2024， 硕士

【副题名】以上海市P区为例

【摘要】 随着近年来新生儿数量的持续走低,我国未来学龄人口下降的趋势已经确定,这对我国教育公共服务均衡供给与教育资源的合理配置带来了巨大的的挑战,研究如何在学龄人口下降的总趋势下对学校的布局进行优化,在满足义务教育阶段学生就近入学需求的前提下提供高质量的义务教育,促进义务教育优质均衡发展,成为摆在当前社会的一个难题。论文从学龄人口下降的趋势出发,以一个经济发展和教育水平有明显差异地区为样本,主要解决新生儿数量迅速下降和义务教育阶段学生总数缓升陡降从而导致的学校布局调整的困难。首先,通过对上海市P区义务教育阶段学龄人口、可提供学位数量和学校现状三个方面的梳理分析,以个案研究方式全面掌握学龄人口趋势、学校建设趋势和相关政策基础,利用统计分析方法和文献研究法为进一步的研究分析提供了数据和理论支持。其次,通过对上海市P区不同访谈对象的访谈内容研究,并结合学龄人口变化的现实影响下的P区义务教育学校优化布局实际,并比照国内和国外其他地区的情况措施,提出学龄人口变化对学校布局调整的“四段式滑坡”模型。最后,通过个案、访谈、数据模型分析等多种因素的结合,提出应对学龄人口下降趋势的学校布局的优化建议,主要从生源的精准预测、教育规划与配套的弹性关系、灵活的学校退出和预备返回机制和均衡配置四个方面展开,为教育行政管理部门和学校的研究者和实践者提供一个新的视角。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous decline in the number of newborns in recent years,the trend of declining school-age population in China in the future has been determined,which brings a huge challenge to the balanced supply of educational public services and the reasonable allocation of educational resources in China.Study how to optimize the layout of schools under the general trend of declining school-age population.It is a difficult problem to provide high-quality compulsory education and promote the balanced development of compulsory education on the premise of meeting the needs of students in the stage of compulsory education.Starting from the declining trend of school-age population,this paper takes a region with obvious differences in economic development and education level as a sample to solve the difficulties of school layout adjustment caused by the rapid decline in the number of newborns and the slow rise and steep decline in the total number of students in compulsory education stage.First of all,by combing and analyzing the school-age population at the compulsory education stage in P District of Shanghai,the number of available degrees and the current situation of schools,the trend of schoolage population,the trend of school construction and the relevant policy basis are comprehensively grasped by case study,and statistical analysis and literature research methods are used to provide data and theoretical support for further research and analysis.Secondly,through the study of the interview contents of different interviewees in P District of Shanghai,combined with the actual optimization layout of compulsory education schools in P District under the realistic influence of schoolage population change,and compared with the situation and measures in other regions at home and abroad,a "three-stage landslide" model was proposed to adjust the school layout of school-age population change.Finally,through the combination of cases,interviews,data model analysis and other factors,this paper puts forward suggestions on the optimization of school layout to cope with the declining trend of school-age population,mainly from four aspects: accurate prediction of student source,flexible relationship between education planning and supporting facilities,flexible school exit mechanism and balanced allocation.It provides a new perspective for researchers and practitioners of educational administration and schools.更多还原