【作者】 丁锐；

【导师】 王诗才；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 会计硕士（专业学位）， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 数字经济的兴起正颠覆以往的产业结构和经济格局,对企业来说数字化转型已经成为了一种不可逆转的大趋势。在数字化与通信行业紧密相连的背景下,论文选取中国联通作为研究对象,运用蒙特卡洛模拟优化后的DCF方法来重新评估其价值,并探讨企业在数字化转型过程中的价值变动。论文在探讨公司在完成数字化的转变后呈现的新特性及其现行估值策略的不充分性和适应性问题。针对目前传统的DCF法存在的缺陷,论文利用了蒙特卡洛模拟技术的优势对其进行了改进。并在此基础上,参考已有的文献及相关改良策略,选择中国联通作为研究案例,通过分析数字化转型后企业的特征、价值与风险,从而揭示数字化转型对于企业价值的影响。最后,论文采用传统的DCF法与经过蒙特卡洛技术改进的DCF法来评估中国联通数字化转型后的企业价值。比较这两种方式的结果之后发现:第一,传统的DCF法无法全面反映企业的潜在发展趋势及未来的经营状况,而通过应用蒙特卡洛模拟技术优化后的DCF法可有效预测公司未来收益的走势,进而能计算出包含未知风险条件下的企业估值范围,从而提高企业价值评估的精确性和可靠性。第二,数字化转型后的企业不仅具有较高的成长性,而且企业会受到内部和外部许多不可预知的变量影响,因此运用基于蒙特卡洛技术优化后的DCF法更为精准且实用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The digital economy’s ascendance is upending customary industry frameworks and economic patterns,making digital transformation an irreversible trend for businesses.In the context of closely intertwined digitalization and the telecommunications industry,the dissertation selects China Unicom as the research subject,using the optimized DCF method through Monte Carlo simulation to reevaluate its value and explore the changes in value during the digital transformation process.The dissertation aims to explore the new characteristics exhibited by companies after completing their digital transformation and the inadequacies and adaptability issues of current valuation strategies.Addressing the shortcomings of the traditional DCF method,the dissertation have improved it with the advantages of Monte Carlo simulation technology.Building on this,referencing existing literature and relevant improvement strategies,China Unicom is chosen as a case study to analyze the attributes,value,and hazards of the company post digital transformation,revealing the impact of digital transformation on enterprise value.In the end,the dissertation evaluate the economic value brought by China Unicom’s completion of digital transformation using both the classic DCF method and the DCF method enhanced by Monte Carlo technology.Comparing the results from these two methods,we found that: Firstly,the traditional DCF method cannot fully reflect the potential development trends and future operating conditions of the enterprise.Through the application of the DCF method optimized by Monte Carlo simulation technology,it can effectively predict the trend of the company’s future earnings and calculate the range of enterprise valuation under unknown risk conditions,thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of corporate value assessment.Secondly,companies after digital transformation not only have high growth potential,but also are affected by many unpredictable internal and external variables.Therefore,applying the DCF method optimized by Monte Carlo technology is more accurate and practical.更多还原