【作者】 田丰；

【导师】 任建伟；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古大学 ， 交通运输， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 公路交通作为我最主要的客货运方式,在国民经济发展中扮演着重要的角色,国家对公路交通的发展给予了高度重视。然而中国公路交通在现阶段高效率发展仍然存在一定局限性,因此有必要对公路交通效率进行系统地分析。本研究以中国省域“十二五”到“十三五”期间公路交通效率为对象,从现有研究现状及相关理论出发,在详细介绍了DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis,数据包络分析)传统模型、Malmquist指数、RAM-DEA(Range Adjusted MeasureData Envelopment Analysis,范围调整测度数据包络分析)模型以及非期望产出RAM-DEA模型后,考虑到中国省域公路实际情况,构建了更适用的广义非期望产出RAM-DEA模型。从不同维度对中国省域10年间的公路交通效率进行了实证分析,研究得出以下结论:(1)中国省域公路交通的综合效率从时间平均值上来看各年均未达到DEA有效,但是山西、内蒙古、江西、贵州、云南、甘肃及青海这7个省域公路交通运输效率是在提升的。从地区上来看仅有北京和上海达到有效。而山西、吉林、黑龙江、云南、甘肃、青海和新疆则效率较低,公路交通效率地区差异性较大。(2)大多数省域RAM-DEA模型效率平均值高于DEA-BCC(规模报酬可变下的DEA模型,其中BCC是三位作者的名字首字母)模型下的效率平均值,说明绝大多数省域可以通过投入产出不同比例地调整来提升公路交通效率。而内蒙古、浙江、安徽和贵州这些省域同时调整投入产出比例和单方面调整的结果差别不大。(3)在交通事故安全管理方面,中国绝大多数省域公路交通部门给予了高度的重视,而效率值下降的浙江、福建和湖北,在交通事故安全管理方面,则需要加强重视。(4)根据构建的广义非期望产出RAM-DEA模型结果,本研究将“十三五”末年的中国30个省域公路水平划分为三层,并为效率值较低的省域提供了逐步追赶上一层省域的方案。最后基于上述结论提出针对性策略建议,对不同省域公路交通发展具有一定的实际参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the most important mode of passenger and freight transportation,highway transportation plays an important role in the development of national economy,and the state attaches great importance to the development of highway transportation.However,there are still some limitations to the efficient development of China’s highway transportation at this stage,so it is necessary to systematically analyze the efficiency of highway transportation.This study takes the highway transportation efficiency of Chinese provinces during the period from the 12 th Five-Year Plan to the 13 th FiveYear Plan as the object,and starts from the current status of existing research and related theories,and introduces the DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis)traditional model,Malmquist index,RAM-DEA(Range Adjusted Measure-Data Envelopment Analysis)model,and non-expected output RAM-DEA model in detail.After introducing the DEA traditional model,Malmquist index,RAM-DEA model and nonexpected output RAM-DEA model in detail,a more applicable generalized nonexpected output RAM-DEA model is constructed considering the actual situation of China’s provincial highways.The empirical analysis of highway traffic efficiency in China’s provincial highways during the 10-year period was conducted from different dimensions,and the study reached the following conclusions:(1)The comprehensive efficiency of China’s provincial highway transportation is not DEA effective in all years from the time average,but the efficiency of highway transportation in seven provinces,namely Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Jiangxi,Guizhou,Yunnan,Gansu and Qinghai,is improving.Regionally only Beijing and Shanghai are effective.While Shanxi,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Yunnan,Gansu,Qinghai and Xinjiang are less efficient,and there are large regional differences in road transportation efficiency.(2)The average value of the efficiency of RAM-DEA model in most provinces is higher than the average value of the efficiency under the DEA-BCC(DEA model with variable returns to scale,where BCC is the initials of the three authors)model,which indicates that most provinces can improve the efficiency of highway transportation through the adjustment of different ratios of inputs and outputs.And there is little difference between the results of adjusting input-output ratios simultaneously and unilaterally in the provinces of Inner Mongolia,Zhejiang,Anhui and Guizhou.(3)In terms of safety management of traffic accidents,the road transportation departments in the majority of Chinese provinces pay high attention,while Zhejiang,Fujian and Hubei,where the efficiency value decreases,need to pay more attention in terms of safety management of traffic accidents.(4)Based on the results of the generalized non-desired output RAM-DEA model,this study classifies the highway level of the 30 provinces in China at the end of the13 th Five-Year Plan into three tiers,and provides a plan for provinces with lower efficiency values to catch up with those in the upper tier gradually.Finally,based on the above conclusions,targeted strategy suggestions are proposed,which have certain practical reference value for the development of highway transportation in different provinces.更多还原