【作者】 王鑫；

【导师】 马勇； 熊昊平；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 金融硕士（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 全球化的深入推进使得各国的交流更加紧密与频繁,国际环境也日益复杂,我国正面临“百年未有之大变局”。在此背景下,为了满足发展的需要,我国政府对经济形势进行研判后,不断出台一系列经济政策来保障市场的稳定运行。这些政策的出台在提高我国经济发展水平的同时,也导致了国内经济政策不确定性程度的增加,使得企业的外部层面不确定性上升,进而影响企业现金持有决策等微观行为。当企业持有现金量较高时,其抵御风险的能力会更强,但可能会增加管理层利用现金谋私的代理成本,可能使企业错失投资项目产生机会成本;当企业持有现金量较低时,其收益性资产相对更多,会具有更强的盈利水平,但同时,陷入财务危机的可能性也会随之提高。因此,研究经济政策不确定性波动对企业现金持有策略的变动及其变动动机的影响具有理论价值和现实意义。本文以经济政策不确定性为出发点,选取2011年-2021年我国沪深主板、创业板上市企业年度数据为研究对象,采用固定效应面板模型进行实证检验,得出以下结论:(1)经济政策不确定性与企业现金持有水平正相关。(2)经济政策不确定性上升时,企业将会采取“从现金流中节省现金”与“减少股息派发和股票回购”的策略来提高企业的现金持有水平。(3)经济政策不确定性上升时,企业管理层将采取保守型策略,以此来缓解投资减少并维持企业创新。经济政策不确定性上升对企业投资以及企业创新有显著的负面影响,该种影响会随着企业现金持有水平的增加而逐步缓解,这一点在受到约束的企业上表现的尤为明显。(4)与国有企业和非制造业企业进行对比,非国有企业和制造业企业的现金持有水平更易受到经济政策不确定性波动的影响。通过本文的研究,为企业合理应对经济政策不确定性上升提供建议,企业应主动密切关注经济政策的动态变化,避免陷入过于悲观或过于乐观的市场预期,提升自己的内部治理能力,制定合理的投融资计划,保持创新战略定力,合理配置现金资产。为政府降低经济政策不确定性风险提供启示,政府应提高政策实施的透明性,维持政策的一致性和长效性,完善相关法律法规制度和市场监督体系,为企业融资给予直接或间接的政策支持,提振企业信心。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the advance of globalization,exchanges between countries have become closer and more frequent and the international environment has become increasingly complex.Our country is facing "profound changes unseen in a century".In this context,in order to meet the needs of development,our government has studied and judged the economic situation and introduced a series of economic policies to ensure the stable operation of the market.The continuous introduction of these policies,while improving the level of economic development in China,has also led to the rise of economic policy uncertainty in China,resulting in an increase in the uncertainty of the external environment of enterprises,and thus affecting enterprises’ microbehavior such as cash holding decision-making.How to keep the cash holding at a reasonable level is the test of the enterprise’s asset management ability.When the amount of cash held by an enterprise is high,its ability to resist risks will be stronger,but it may increase the agency cost of the management using cash for personal gain.When the amount of cash held by an enterprise is low,its earning assets are relatively more and it will have stronger profitability,but at the same time,the risk of falling into financial distress will also increase.Therefore,it is of great value to study the influence of economic policy uncertainty fluctuation on the change of corporate cash holding strategy and its change motivation.Taking the uncertainty of economic policy as the starting point,this paper selects the annual data of listed enterprises on the main board and GEM in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2011 to 2021 as the research object,and uses the fixed-effect panel model for empirical analysis.The paper draws the following conclusions:(1)Economic policy uncertainty is significantly positively correlated with corporate cash holdings.(2)When economic policy uncertainty rises,enterprises will adopt strategies of "saving cash from cash flow" and "reducing dividend distribution and stock buyback" to increase cash holdings.(3)When economic policy uncertainty rises,corporate management will adopt conservative strategies to mitigate the decrease in investment and maintain the level of innovation.The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative correlation with firm investment and firm innovation,and the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on investment and firm innovation of firms,especially those under financial constraints,is gradually alleviated with the increase of cash holdings.(4)Compared with state-owned enterprises and non-manufacturing enterprises,the cash holding level of non-state-owned enterprises and manufacturing enterprises is more affected by the uncertainty of economic policies.Through the research of this paper,it provides suggestions for enterprises to cope with the rising environment of economic policy uncertainty,and provides enlightenment for the government to reduce the risk of economic policy uncertainty.Enterprises should take the initiative to pay close attention to the dynamic changes of economic policies,avoid overly pessimistic or overly optimistic market expectations,improve their internal governance capabilities,formulate reasonable investment and financing plans,maintain strategic focus on innovation,and allocate cash assets reasonably.The government should improve the transparency of policy implementation,maintain the consistency and long-term effect of policies,improve relevant laws and regulations and market supervision system,provide direct or indirect policy support for enterprise financing and boost enterprise confidence.更多还原