【作者】 李响；

【导师】 吴东民；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 公共管理（专业学位）， 2024， 硕士

【摘要】 在现代社会,经济飞速发展,各国为应对养老、失业、伤残、医疗等社会风险,纷纷建立了社会保障制度。这一制度对于维护社会稳定、促进国民经济健康发展、改善民众福利水平具有不可或缺的作用。我国的社会保障体系,尤其是作为人口大省的山东省,近年来在社会保障体系建设上取得了显著成就,企业基本养老保险在全省范围内得到广泛覆盖,退休人员待遇水平稳步提高。然而,随着山东省人口老龄化程度的不断加深,养老保险基金支付压力日益增大。尽管目前山东省企业基本养老保险基金有结余,但山东各地发展不均衡,基金保增值方面持续承压。在这一背景下,对养老保险基金运行情况进行精算分析显得尤为重要。通过运用精算模型,如城镇企业职工养老保险基金精算模型(PB2016),结合企业基本养老保险基础数据,我们可以对未来基金支付风险进行预测,为政府出台相关政策提供有力依据。该模型经过系统初始化、社会人口计算、参保人口计算、收入计算、支出计算以及预测结果处理等步骤,为我们揭示了山东省企业基本养老保险基金的运行现状和未来趋势。分析结果显示,基于山东人口当前增长模式,企业养老保险基金的长期支付压力沉重,未来十年山东省企业基本养老保险基金的运行前景令人担忧。此外,宏观经济形势对基金收益的冲击和隐藏的风险也值得警惕。针对这些问题,我们需要采取一系列对策和建议。首先,减轻养老保险基金的支付压力,可以通过优化制度设计、提高基金征缴效率等方式实现。其次,增强基金未来的支撑能力,可以通过扩大养老保险覆盖范围、提高参保率等措施来实现。同时,提高基金的投资运营水平,通过多元化投资、优化资产配置等方式,确保基金保值增值。最后,加快各项制度改革在社保领域的推进,如完善养老保险制度、优化社保政策等,为基本养老保险基金的可持续发展提供有力保障。综上所述,通过精算分析,我们可以更准确地把握山东省企业基本养老保险基金的运行情况,为未来的政策制定和改革提供科学依据,促进养老保险基金的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In modern society,with rapid economic growth,countries have established social security systems to address social risks such as old age,unemployment,disability,and healthcare.This system plays an indispensable role in maintaining social stability,improving the welfare level of the public,and promoting the development level of the national economy.China’s social security system,especially in Shandong Province,a major population province,has achieved significant accomplishments in the construction of the social security system in recent years.The basic pension insurance for enterprise employees has been widely covered across the province,and the treatment levels for retirees have steadily increased.However,with the deepening of population aging in Shandong Province,the payment pressure on the pension insurance fund is growing.Although the basic pension insurance fund for enterprises in Shandong currently has a surplus,the province’s development is uneven,and the fund faces continuous pressure to maintain and increase its value.Against this backdrop,it is particularly important to conduct actuarial analysis of the pension insurance fund’s operations.By using actuarial models,such as the PB2016 model for urban enterprise employees’ pension insurance fund,and combining basic data on enterprise basic pension insurance,we can predict future fund payment risks and provide a strong basis for the government to introduce relevant policies.The model,after steps including system initialization,social population calculation,insured population calculation,income calculation,expenditure calculation,and processing of predictive results,reveals the current operational status and future trends of Shandong’s basic pension insurance fund for enterprise employees.The analysis results show that,based on the current population growth model in Shandong,the long-term payment pressure on the pension insurance fund is heavy,and the operational prospects of Shandong’s basic pension insurance fund for the next ten years are concerning.In addition,the impact of the macroeconomic situation on fund returns and hidden risks are also worth being vigilant about.To address these issues,a series of countermeasures and suggestions are needed.First,to alleviate the payment pressure on the pension insurance fund,this can be achieved through optimizing system design and improving the efficiency of fund collection.Second,to enhance the future support capacity of the fund,measures such as expanding the coverage of pension insurance and increasing the participation rate can be implemented.At the same time,to improve the investment and operation level of the fund,methods such as diversified investment and optimizing asset allocation can ensure the preservation and appreciation of the fund.Finally,accelerating the advancement of various system reforms in the field of social security,such as improving the pension insurance system and optimizing social security policies,will provide strong guarantees for the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance fund.In summary,through actuarial analysis,we can more accurately grasp the operational situation of Shandong’s basic pension insurance fund for enterprise employees,provide a scientific basis for future policy-making and reforms,and improve the sustainability of the pension insurance fund.更多还原