【作者】 张杰；

【导师】 阮加；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【副题名】以华夏北京保障房REIT为例

【摘要】 21世纪以来,我国经济快速发展,资本市场无论从体量或是产品端都得到了空前扩展。然而基础设施行业融资模式单一、存量资产众多且高负债限制了基础设施企业的发展。国家发改委、证监会两部门在2020年4月联合发文《关于推进基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金(REITs)试点相关工作的通知》,文件要求国家有关部门在发行基础设施公募REITs要优先保障性租赁住房此类补短板的基础设施行业。根据监管要求,公募REITs产品募集资金90%投入在建项目或新建基础设施项目,而募集资金与估值息息相关,因此项目估值至关重要。在国家层面大力发展REITs、盘活存量资产的阶段,公募REITs产品的估值显得尤为重要。当前学术界对REITs估值的研究主要集中在收益法估值模型方面,关注模型中现金流的计算方式以及各种参数的调整。但是在中国这种特殊的房地产市场下,收益法估值有一个显著问题,会低估底层资产价值,因为中国房地产市场租售比数值较高,如果同样的资产,使用收益法估值和市场成交价格比较,二者之间会有较大差异。因此,本文在使用收益法估值的基础上,创造性的引入了市场法进行估值,弥补了收益法的不足。同时又根据当地的交通、区位、商业、服务等特点,评估房屋租售比参数,调整市场法评估结果,最终更加合理确定项目整体估值,以此对未来产品的估值提供一种新的估值思路。使用收益法对案例估值时,本文不同于目前上市项目根据分派率调整折现率的估值方式,而是首先选择同类项目平均分派率加一定溢价后确定折现率,之后对其他现金流影响因素如出租率、收缴率、运营成本等进行审慎估计,使估值结果更加客观、合理。普通投资者往往对于项目的估值逻辑并不了解,本文从系统性和非系统性两个方面梳理分析了影响产权类资产的估值影响因素,并通过敏感性分析,得到影响此类资产估值最重要的因素是折现率和收入增长率以及其影响程度。本文建议未来此类公募REITs产品可以选择市场法和收益法相结合的估值方式,体现公募REITs新型金融产品特性。在收益法估值方面,投资者可以在未来投资中重点对估值结果最重要的折现率和市场增长率参数,通过对比同类型资产的水平,评估参数的公允性,借此对比估值是否公允,理性进行投资,促进市场健康有序发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 21 st century,our economy has developed rapidly,and the capital market has never been expanded from the body or the product end.However,the single financing mode,large stock assets and high debt limit the development of infrastructure enterprises.In April 2020,the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Promoting the Pilot Work of Real Estate Investment Trust(REITs)in the Field of Infrastructure,which required relevant departments of the state to give priority to the infrastructure industry,such as low-income rental housing,when issuing public offering REITs of infrastructure.Due to regulatory requirements,90 per cent of funds raised by public REITs go into ongoing or new infrastructure projects,and valuation is crucial because it is closely linked to fundraising.The valuation of publicly offered REITs products is particularly important in the stage of the national development of REITs and the revitalization of stock assets.The current academic research on REITs valuation mainly focuses on the income method valuation model,focusing on the calculation of cash flow and the adjustment of various parameters in the model.However,in China’s special real estate market,there is a significant problem in income method valuation,which will underestimate the value of underlying assets.Because the rent-to-sale ratio in China’s real estate market is relatively high,if the same asset is valued by income method and the market transaction price is compared,there will be a big difference between them.Therefore,on the basis of using the income method of valuation,this paper creatively introduces the market method of valuation,to make up for the deficiency of the income method.At the same time,according to the local characteristics of transportation,location,commerce,service,etc.,the housing rent-sales ratio parameters are evaluated,the market method evaluation results are adjusted,and the overall project valuation is finally determined more reasonably,so as to provide a new valuation idea for future product valuation.When using income method to evaluate cases,this paper is different from the current valuation method of listed projects which adjusts the discount rate according to the distribution rate.Instead,it first selects the average distribution rate of similar projects and then determines the discount rate after adding a certain premium,and then makes prudent estimation of other factors affecting cash flow,such as rent rate,payment rate and operating cost,so as to make the valuation result more objective and reasonable.Ordinary investors often do not understand the valuation logic of projects.This paper analyzes the factors affecting the valuation of property assets from both systematic and non-systematic aspects,and finds that the most important factors affecting the valuation of such assets are discount rate and income growth rate and their impact degree through sensitivity analysis.This paper suggests that such public offering REITs in the future can choose the valuation method combining market method and income method,reflecting the characteristics of new financial products of public offering REITs.In the aspect of income method valuation,investors can focus on discount rate and market growth rate parameters,which are the most important to valuation results,and evaluate the fairness of parameters by comparing the level of assets of the same type,so as to compare whether the valuation is fair,make rational investment and promote the healthy and orderly development of the market.更多还原