【作者】 刘芳；

【导师】 张正华；

【作者基本信息】 云南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 由于物流业与制造业(以下简称“两业”)在产业链上存在天然的衔接与关联,就注定了二者在发展过程中是相互作用、彼此联系相协调的。作为物流业务的主要需求方,制造业在一定程度上决定着物流业发展容量;作为连接制造业产业链上下游各节点的纽带,物流业起到优化制造业企业组织结构、提升核心竞争力等重要作用;另外,作为能源消耗和碳排放大户的制造业和物流业也承担着保护生态环境,减少碳排放的责任,二者的协调发展是否会影响区域碳排放便成为一个值得关注的研究视角。首先,梳理文献并分析我国“两业”协调发展机理及“两业”协调发展对区域碳排放的影响机理;其次,借鉴已有的代表性研究成果并结合我国经济进入新发展阶段的背景,以投入产出理论为基础构建“两业”协调发展评价指标体系,借助协调度模型进行测算,并从经济区和省域两个视角开展“两业”协调发展的时空演化特征分析;接着,借助空间计量经济模型,探讨“两业”协调发展水平对区域碳排放的影响;最后,结合实证分析结果得出具有针对性的政策启示,以期推动我国物流业与制造业更好贯彻新发展理念,实现“两业”的协调发展及加快碳减排进程。研究表明:(1)在研究期内,“两业”协调发展水平在时间上呈现从“轻度失调”到“良好协调”的逐级提升演变轨迹,在空间上呈现分层的特征,表现为“两业”协调度自东向西梯度递减,这与地区经济发展水平分布特征相一致;(2)物流业碳排放强度在时间维度表现为逐渐降低,在空间维度呈现北部低于南部,东部低于西部的分布特征,制造业碳排放强度在空间上呈现出南部低于北部,东部低于西部的分布规律;(3)在不同模型中,“两业”协调发展水平差异化作用于区域碳排放,在OLS模型中表现为显著抑制作用,而在空间计量模型中均显示对区域碳排放有正向促进作用,且除“两业”协调发展水平外,对区域碳排放的影响程度由大到小的因素依次为技术、经济、人口和能源结构,因此要加大低碳创新技术的研发力度实现科技驱动碳减排,在发展经济和推进城镇化进程中注重与环境的协调,并逐步优化能源消费结构。更多还原

【Abstract】 Because there is a natural connection between logistics and manufacturing(hereinafter referred to as "the Two Industries")in the industrial chain,it is doomed that the two industries interact and coordinate with each other in the process of development.As the main demander of logistics services,the manufacturing determines the development capacity of logistics industry to a certain extent;As a link connecting the upstream and downstream nodes of the manufacturing industry chain,the logistics industry plays an important role in optimizing the organizational structure of manufacturing enterprises and enhancing their core competitiveness;In addition,as major energy consumers and carbon emitters,the manufacturing and logistics industries also bear the responsibility of protecting the ecological environment and reducing carbon emissions.Whether the coordinated development of "the Two Industries" will affect regional carbon emissions has become a research perspective worthy of attention.Firstly,review the literature and analyze the coordinated development mechanism of "the Two Industries" and the impact mechanism of the coordinated development of"the Two Industries" on regional carbon emissions;Secondly,drawing on existing representative research results and combining the background of China’s economy entering a new stage of development,an evaluation index system for the coordinated development of "the Two Industries" is constructed based on the input-output theory,measured using the coordination degree model,and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the coordinated development of "the Two Industries" are analyzed from the perspectives of economic regions and provinces;Then,with the help of a spatial econometric model,the impact of the coordinated development level of "the Two Industries" on regional carbon emissions is discussed;Finally,based on the empirical analysis results,this paper explores targeted policy implications in order to promote the better implementation of new development concepts in China’s logistics and manufacturing industries,achieve coordinated development of "the Two Industries",and accelerate the process of carbon emission reduction.The research shows that:(1)During the research period,the coordinated development level of the "two industries" presented a gradual evolution trajectory from"slight imbalance" to "good coordination" in time,and presented a layered feature in space,showing a gradual decline in the coordination degree of the "two industries" from east to west,which is consistent with the distribution characteristics of the regional economic development level;(2)The carbon emission intensity of the logistics industry gradually decreases in the temporal dimension,with a distribution characteristic that the north is lower than the south and the east is lower than the west in the spatial dimension.The carbon emission intensity of the manufacturing industry shows a spatial distribution pattern that the south is lower than the north,and the east is lower than the west;(3)In different models,the difference of the coordinated development level of "the Two Industries" is used for regional carbon emissions,which shows a significant inhibition effect in the OLS model,and a positive promotion effect on regional carbon emissions in the spatial measurement model,and in addition to the coordinated development level of "the Two Industries",the factors that influence the regional carbon emissions from the largest to the smallest are technology,economy,population and energy structure.Therefore,we should increase the research and development of low-carbon innovative technologies to achieve technology-driven carbon emissions reduction,pay attention to the coordination with the environment in the process of economic development and urbanization,and gradually optimize the energy consumption structure.更多还原