【作者】 王超；

【导师】 王刚；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 土木水利（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 大气降水是驱动区域水文循环的主要因素,也是流域内形成洪水的重要原因。随着卫星降水产品的出现及发展,众多国内外学者将其应用于包括无资料地区在内的不同流域的径流模拟研究中,并取得了一定的进展。本文以黄河下游的大汶河流域为研究区,基于流域内地面雨量站的降水资料,在对IMERG的Early、Late、Final三套产品的时空精度进行了系统评价的基础上,采用精度较高的IMERG产品与地面站点降水数据驱动HEC-HMS模型,通过对比分析模拟结果,评价IMERG数据在流域短历时洪水模拟中的效果。主要研究内容及取得的成果如下:(1)采用皮尔逊相关系数、相对偏差、均方根误差、探测率、误报率等指标,基于流域内18个雨量站的日降水数据,对三套产品2001～2019年的降水数据进行日、月、年尺度的精度分析。结果表明,Final产品在大汶河流域有较好的适用性,日尺度下的RB、RMSE、CC分别为7.6%、3.8mm、0.86,其余两个产品的适用性较差,相对偏差分别达到了21.3%、23.0%;各产品的RMSE随着时间尺度的增大而增大,RB在日、月、年尺度下相同,CC在月尺度下最好、日尺度下最差;三套产品对面雨量的模拟精度整体好于点雨量;各产品对流域发生日降水事件的探测率达到了0.85以上,小雨事件探测率达到0.71以上,中雨事件探测率达到0.40以上,随着日降水强度的增大,产品的探测能力呈下降趋势。(2)根据戴村坝水文站实测径流资料,选取2010～2019年间10次洪水作为本次研究的模拟系列,并对各场次的Final降水数据进行小时尺度的精度评价。经计算,各场次的RB值在-43.6%～35.1%间、RMSE值在0.6～1.6mm间、CC值在0.63～0.84间,同时,各场次的相对偏差差异较大,10场中有9场的RB值小于0。各结果表明,Final数据整体上低估了各场次的降水量,空间上存在高估低降水区降水量与低估高降水区降水量的情况。(3)以戴村坝水文站为流域出口构建HEC-HMS流域水文模型,分别以Final产品、雨量站资料作为降水数据源进行1h时间步长的洪水过程模拟,并基于戴村坝站实测流量资料,采用《水文情报预报规范》(GB/T 22482-2008)中的标准对模拟结果进行评价。经计算,基于Final数据模拟的10次洪水过程的洪峰流量、峰现时间、径流深合格率以及平均确定性系数分别为80%、50%、50%、0.51;基于雨量站数据模拟的洪峰流量、峰现时间、径流深合格率以及平均确定性系数分别为80%、80%、70%、0.74。对比同一洪水场次2种降水数据源的模拟结果发现,基于Final数据模拟的洪峰流量、峰现时间、径流深以及平均确定性系数分别有6、2、4、4场好于雨量站资料模拟的成果。结果表明,Final产品在大汶河流域具有一定的应用于洪水模拟的能力,虽然整体精度略低于基于雨量站资料的模拟精度,但在部分场次中对洪水要素的模拟效果更好。更多还原

【Abstract】 Atmospheric precipitation is the main factor driving the regional hydrological cycle,and it is also an important cause of flood formation in the basin.With the emergence and development of satellite precipitation products,many domestic and foreign scholars have applied it to runoff simulation studies in different basins,including ungauged areas,and have made some progress.In this paper,the Dawen River Basin in the lower Yellow River is taken as the study area.Based on the precipitation data of surface rainfall stations in the basin,the spatial and temporal accuracy of the three sets of IMERG products,Early,Late and Final,is systematically evaluated.Then,the HEC-HMS model is driven by the IMERG products with high accuracy and the precipitation data of surface stations.By comparing and analyzing the simulation results,the effect of IMERG data in the short-duration flood simulation of the basin is evaluated.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)Using Pearson correlation coefficient,relative deviation,root mean square error,detection rate,false alarm rate and other indicators,based on the daily precipitation data of 18rainfall stations in the basin,the accuracy of the precipitation data of three sets of products from 2001 to 2019 at the daily,monthly and annual scales was analyzed.The results show that Final products have good applicability in Dawen River Basin.RB,RMSE and CC at daily scale are 7.6%,3.8 mm and 0.86,respectively.The applicability of Final products is poor,and the relative deviations are 21.3%and 23.0%,respectively.The RMSE of each product increases with the increase of time scale.RB is the same at day,month and year scales,and CC is the best at month scale and the worst at day scale.The simulation accuracy of rainfall across the three sets of products is generally better than that of point rainfall;the detection rate of each product for daily precipitation events in the basin is more than 0.85,the detection rate of light rain events is more than 0.71,and the detection rate of moderate rain events is more than 0.40.With the increase of daily precipitation intensity,the detection ability of the product decreases.(2)According to the measured runoff data of Daicunba Hydrological Station,10floods from 2010 to 2019 were selected as the simulation series of this study,and the accuracy of final precipitation data at hourly scale was evaluated.The RB value of each field was-43.6%～35.1%,RMSE value was 0.6～1.6 mm,and CC value was 0.63～0.84.At the same time,the relative deviation of each field was quite different,and the RB value of 9 fields in 10 fields was less than 0.The results show that the Final data underestimate the precipitation of each field as a whole,and there is an overestimation of the precipitation in the low-precipitation area and an underestimation of the precipitation in the high-precipitation area in space.(3)Taking Daicunba hydrological station as the outlet of the basin,the hydrological model of HEC-HMS basin is constructed.The final product and rainfall station data are used as precipitation data sources to simulate the flood process with 1 hour time step.Based on the measured flow data of Daicunba station,the simulation results are evaluated by the standard of’Hydrological Information Forecasting Specification(GB/T 22482-2008).Through calculation,the peak flow,peak time,qualified rate of runoff depth and average deterministic coefficient of 10 flood processes simulated based on Final data are 80%,50%,50%and0.51,respectively.The peak flow,peak time,qualified rate of runoff depth and average certainty coefficient based on rainfall station data simulation are 80%,80%,70%and 0.74,respectively.Comparing the simulation results of two precipitation data sources in the same flood field,it is found that the peak flow,peak time,runoff depth and average deterministic coefficient simulated based on Final data are 6,2,4 and 4 better than those simulated by rainfall station data,respectively.The results show that Final product has a certain ability to apply to flood simulation in Dawen River Basin.Although the overall accuracy is slightly lower than that based on rainfall station data,the simulation effect of flood factors is better in some fields.更多还原