【作者】 郑琳；

【导师】 陈贵富；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 西方经济学， 2022， 硕士

【副题名】基于A股上市工业企业数据

【摘要】 就业是最大的民生。在构建新发展格局的背景下,研究进出口贸易对我国就业的影响意义重大。当前,我国面临着日益突出的结构性矛盾,以及日渐复杂的国际环境,以此为背景,本文着重研究进出口贸易对我国劳动力市场的冲击。首先,本文利用2000年-2017年A股上市工业企业的微观面板数据,计算就业波动指标。之后,从企业进出口贸易状态以及出口强度和进口强度两个方面实证分析进出口对我国工业企业不同技能水平劳动力就业波动的影响。研究发现,无论是仅从事出口贸易、仅从事进口贸易还是同时从事进出口贸易,都能够显著降低高技能和低技能水平劳动力的就业波动,但是对二者的影响程度是存在差异的。出口强度并不能抑制高技能水平劳动力的就业波动,但是随着出口强度的提高,低技能水平劳动力的就业波动却是显著下降的。进口强度的提高显著抑制了高技能水平劳动力和低技能水平劳动力的就业波动。同时,本文研究还发现,进出口贸易通过影响企业的产出波动、研发投入和工资波动进而影响不同技能水平劳动力的就业波动。此外,对于不同所有制类型的企业、不同地区的企业以及不同技能密集型的企业,其就业波动受进出口贸易的影响是存在差异的。不同贸易方式也使得进出口对就业波动的影响存在差异。最后,本文还从细分劳动力学历、区分就业波动方向以及考虑贸易状态的转换三个方面进行了拓展分析。在本文研究结论的基础上,为在当前的国内国际环境下应对贸易冲击并稳定就业,本文提出了一些有价值的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Employment is the most important aspect of people’s livelihoods.It is of great significance to study the influence of imports and exports on employment in China under the background of constructing a new development pattern.China is facing increasingly prominent structural contradictions,and the international environment is increasingly complex.So this paper focuses on the impact of exports and imports on China’s labor market.Firstly,based on the micro-panel data of A-share listed industrial enterprises from 2000 to 2017,this paper calculates employment volatility indicators.Then,this paper empirically analyzes the trade status and import and export intensities on employment volatility of labor with different skills.It is found that whether engaged in export alone,import alone or both can significantly reduce the employment volatility of high-skilled and low-skilled labor,but the degree of impact on the two is different.Export intensity does not restrain the employment volatility of high-skilled labor,but with the increase of export intensity,the employment volatility of low-skilled labor decreases significantly.The import intensity significantly suppressed the employment volatility of high-skilled labor and low-skilled labor.At the same time,this paper finds that imports and exports affects the employment volatility of labor with different skills by influencing the output volatility,R&D investment and wage volatility.In addition,for enterprises of different ownership types,enterprises in different regions and enterprises with different skill intensities,the influence of imports and exports on employment volatility is different.Different trade patterns also make the impact of imports and exports on employment volatility different.Finally,this paper makes an extended analysis from three aspects of subdividing labor’s educational background,distinguishing the direction of employment volatility and considering the transition of trade status.On the basis of the research conclusions,this paper puts forward some valuable policy suggestions to deal with the trade shock and stabilize employment in the current domestic and international environment.更多还原