【作者】 杨晨；

【导师】 刘爱军；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 国际商务硕士（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 由于人口众多,我国农产品消费市场潜力巨大。然而由于劳动力、土地、资源等方面的限制,我国农产品常常供不应求,通过对外投资可以有效解决农产品供需平衡问题。中央一号文件也多次提到农业“走出去”,鼓励企业到境外开展农业投资。境外产业园区的建立为企业走出国门到境外投资提供了新的选择,近年来投资额稳定增长,投资领域越来越广,但是我国境外产业园区仍然存在基础设施相对薄弱、总体战略定位不清晰等各方面不足,导致产业园区在经营时存在各种风险。H公司作为较早对外进行农业投资的企业,具有多年对外投资的经验,2014年在坦桑尼亚投资建设了农业产业园区,成为农业部认定的首批十家境外农业合作示范区之一,在对外投资过程中,企业遭遇到各种风险和挑战。企业亟需建立完善的风险预警以及防范机制。本文以H公司坦桑尼亚产业园区为研究对象,首先归纳选取了内部控制理论作为风险识别的基础,风险评价与预警理论作为风险评估的基础,其次通过访谈和调研,并对结果进行统计整理,得出坦桑尼亚产业园区最终风险清单,通过构建SCOR模型对投资风险进行分析,识别出面临政治风险包括战争和内乱风险、廉洁风险;经济风险包括宏观经济变化风险、汇率风险;社会文化风险包括语言障碍风险、宗教习俗风险、自然环境风险、基础设施风险、人力资源风险、公共卫生风险;运营风险包括审批风险、市场需求风险、舆论风险、市场竞争风险、供应风险、运输风险、招商风险、资金回收风险、租赁风险;管理风险包括物资管理风险、组织管理风险、劳工管理风险。再次,通过层次分析法和问卷调查法,建立风险综合权值模型,对风险进行分析,按照设定风险准则,进行风险评价,划分高中低风险。本文针对坦桑尼亚产业园区提出风险防范对策及构建风险监测机制,针对不同等级的风险本文建议采取不同方式进行风险决策。对于高风险,本文建议采取风险预防的方法,尽量避免风险的发生;针对中风险,本文建议采取风险转移或对冲,将风险控制在合理范围内;针对低风险,主要采取风险自留,利用企业内部资源将风险及时处理。本文通过研究H公司坦桑尼亚产业园区风险管理,希望给H公司对外投资带来借鉴,也为其他企业风险管理提供对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s agricultural products consumption market has great potential because of the large population.However,due to the limitation of labor,land and resources,the demand for China’s agricultural products often exceeds the supply.The balance between supply and demand of agricultural products can be effectively solved through foreign investment.No.1 central document also mentioned agriculture,encouraging enterprises to carry out agricultural investment abroad through Overseas Industrial Zones.There are still some deficiencies in China’s overseas industrial zones.Yet,the amount of investment has increased steadily in recent years and the investment field has become more and more abundant.Such includes relatively weak infrastructure and unclear overall strategic positioning,which lead to various risks in China’s industrial zones.H Company has went abroad for several years as an early foreign agricultural investment company.In 2014,it invested in constructing an industrial agricultural zone in Tanzania.As a result,it has become one of the first ten overseas agricultural cooperation demonstration zones approved by the Ministry of Agriculture.Among them,the company encounters various risks and challenges.Enterprise urgently needs to establish a perfect risk warning and prevention mechanism.This research focuses on H Company Industrial Zone in Tanzania as the research object.First,we summarize and select the internal control theory as the basis for risk identification.Risk assessment and early warning theory are used as the basis of risk assessment.Second,we obtained the Tanzania industrial zone’s absolute risk through statistically sorting out the results of the interview.We identify the investment risk by the establishment of the SCOR model.Political risks include war and civil strife,integrity,whereas the economic hazards include macroeconomic change and exchange rate.Moreover,the socio-cultural risks have language barrier,religious custom,natural environment,infrastructure,human resource,and public health.On the other hand,operational risks include approval,market demand,public opinion,market competition,supply,transportation,investment,capital recovery,lease.In contrast,management risks include material management,organization management,and labor management.Third,through the analytic hierarchy process and questionnaire survey,the risk comprehensive weight model is established to analyze the risk.According to the risk criteria,the risk assessment is carried out and the high,medium,and low risks are divided.Further,this paper presents risk prevention countermeasures and risk monitoring mechanisms for Tanzania industrial zone.Besides,this paper suggests various ways to make decisions regarding various risk levels.For high risks,this paper suggests that risk prevention should be adopted to avoid the occurrence of risks as far as possible.Also,for medium risks,this paper recommends risk transferring or hedging to control risks within a reasonable range.For low risks,we mainly adopt risk retention and enterprise can use internal resources to deal with risks in time.This paper studies the risk management of H Company’s Tanzania industrial zone project,bring reference to its foreign investment,and also providing countermeasures and suggestions for other enterprises’ risk management.更多还原