【作者】 郭颖；

【导师】 王建华； 何正惠；

【作者基本信息】 江南大学 ， 物流工程（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 传统的报童模型往往基于“理性人”假设,得出的最优决策与经营者实际决策总会存在偏差。研究发现,管理者在决策时并不能保持完全理性,面对可能的收益与损失,管理者对损失的敏感性会更高,所以,考虑损失规避的报童模型更具有现实意义。同时,在企业生产经营过程中,供应中断事件层出不穷,国家政策、环保要求、自然灾害、突发疫情等,都会在一定程度导致部分企业在供应链供应系统出现问题,进而影响消费者购买,对企业声誉同样有很大影响。因此,在风险与机遇并存之际,企业加大了对供应中断的重视,而采购管理是有效应对市场供应风险的策略之一。通过对采购策略的比较与优化,为企业提供更加安全可靠的适合企业发展的采购策略。考虑以上因素,本文进行了以下研究:(1)从制造商采购策略选择出发,本文在建模时分为单源采购和双源采购模型,同时在双源采购中有基于不可靠供应商的双源采购和基于备份供应商的双源采购。以报童模型为基础,充分考虑企业的缺货损失、退货补偿、中断概率、损失规避系数,讨论不同模型下各因素对最优决策影响,为企业在不同情景下的采购策略决策提供参考;(2)从制造商有限理性类型出发,本文结合企业实际情况,认为制造商是损失规避的,同时分为对超订损失的规避和对缺货损失的规避,借助两种损失规避系数衡量制造商的损失厌恶程度,并将制造商的损失规避与供应商供应中断水平结合,拓展了损失规避报童模型的研究范围,为以后的研究者提供一种新的研究思路;(3)结合H企业的生产经营数据,利用数值分析软件对比分析制造商在不同参数影响下的最优采购策略决策,为H企业的供应链应急采购管理提供参考,同时也为其他同类企业在损失规避情况下的采购策略决策提供依据。研究发现,制造商损失规避系数在不同采购策略下会造成制造商决策偏差,而影响的方向和程度大小均有所不同。产品订购量与制造商获得效用并不总是同向变动,高的订购量并不意味着高效用。在H企业数据支持下,基于不可靠双源采购的采购量总是最多的,而基于备份双源采购策略的期望效用总是最好的;在损失规避制造商决策中,单源采购完全失去了优势。所以本文的研究结果对H企业的采购策略优化具有一定的参考价值,企业应加大对供应商的开发管理投资,以双源采购代替既有的单源采购策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 The traditional newsboy model is often based on the assumption of "rational person",and there is always a deviation between the optimal decision and the actual decision of the operator.The study found that managers can not keep completely rational when making decisions.In the face of possible gains and losses,managers will be more sensitive to losses.Therefore,the newsboy model considering loss avoidance has more practical significance.At the same time,in the process of enterprise production and operation,supply interruption events emerge one after another.National policies,environmental protection requirements,natural disasters,sudden epidemics,etc.will,to a certain extent,lead to problems in the supply chain supply system of some enterprises,which will affect consumers’ purchase,and also have a great impact on enterprise reputation.Therefore,when risks and opportunities coexist,enterprises pay more attention to supply interruption,and procurement management is one of the effective strategies to deal with market supply risks.Through the comparison and optimization of procurement strategies,we can provide enterprises with more secure and reliable procurement strategies suitable for enterprise development.Considering the above factors,the following research is carried out in this paper:(1)Starting from the manufacturer’s procurement strategy selection,this paper divides the modeling into single source procurement and dual source procurement models.At the same time,there are dual source procurement based on backup suppliers and dual source procurement based on different suppliers in dual source procurement.Based on the newsboy model,taking full account of the shortage loss,return compensation,interruption probability and loss avoidance coefficient of the enterprise,the influence of each factor under different models on the optimal decision is discussed in the case analysis,which provides reference for the enterprise’s procurement strategy decision under different scenarios;(2)Starting from the limited rational type of manufacturers,this paper combines the actual situation of enterprises to believe that manufacturers are loss avoidant,and at the same time divides into avoidance of overbooking loss and avoidance of out-of-stock loss,with the help of two loss avoidance coefficients to measure the loss aversion of manufacturers,and combines the loss avoidance of manufacturers with the level of supplier supply interruption,expands the research scope of the loss avoidance newsboy model,and provides a new research idea for future researchers;(3)Combined with the production and operation data of enterprise H,the numerical analysis software is used to compare and analyze the manufacturers’ optimal purchase strategy decisions under the influence of different parameters,which provides a reference for the supply chain emergency purchase management of enterprise H,and also provides a basis for other enterprises’ purchase strategy decisions under the situation of loss avoidance.It is found that the manufacturer’s loss avoidance coefficient will cause manufacturer decision bias under different procurement strategies,and the direction and magnitude of the impact are different.Product order volume does not always move in the same direction as the manufacturer’s utility,and high order volume does not mean efficient use.With the support of H enterprise’s data,the purchase volume based on unreliable dual-source procurement is always the largest,while the expected utility based on the backup dual-source procurement strategy is always the best.In the loss avoidance manufacturer’s decision,single-source procurement has completely lost its advantage.So the research results of this article have certain reference value for the optimization of procurement strategies of H enterprise.Enterprises should increase investment in supplier development and management,and replace existing single source procurement strategies with dual source procurement.更多还原