【作者】 郑琳琳；

【导师】 黄祥钟；

【作者基本信息】 福州大学 ， 货币银行（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【副题名】基于理论模型和具体案例的分析

【摘要】 我国的中小企业普遍存在“融资难、融资贵”问题,由于抵押物不足和信用水平较低,银行担保贷款成为中小企业重要的融资方式。随着担保关系的发展,企业间形成资金担保链。当贷款企业违约,担保企业对债务的连带清偿责任会对自身财务状况形成压力,甚至造成资金链断裂。因此某一债务违约可能沿担保链传播蔓延,催生出巨大的风险传染能力和破坏力,引发企业接连倒闭的“多米诺骨牌效应”,威胁银行信贷资产安全,破坏地区经济和金融稳定。我国近年多次发生担保链出险事件,担保链问题亟待解决。本文采用文献研究法、博弈论、案例分析法和理论研究与模型分析相结合等方法进行研究,研究目标包含:构建担保链融资动态博弈模型,结合安溪铁观音集团担保链案例的实际情况,得出担保链风险爆发的内在机理和现实启示;探索担保链风险的应对措施,对商业银行等金融机构开展担保贷款业务提出可行建议。首先,本文对担保链这一现象进行文献整理和理论分析,梳理担保链的定义、结构和基础理论,从多角度分析担保链风险形成、传染和爆发的原因,归纳担保链的特点和危害,总结我国担保链出险情况和商业银行担保贷款情况;其次,本文建立担保链融资动态博弈模型对企业资金担保链的形成机制做进一步的理论提升,包含担保链融资的完全信息动态博弈模型和不完全信息情况下以企业担保为风险信号的信号博弈模型,模型分析得出:减少企业违约行为的有效手段就是提高社会上企业失信违约和信息造假的代价,银政合作加强风险管理、加大对恶意逃废债的惩戒力度;接着,本文通过安溪铁观音集团担保链案例分析典型担保链中的担保关系、存在问题及形成原因,梳理案例中担保链风险的处置措施并作出案例总结,本文发现,铁观音集团担保链的核心是关联方之间提供担保,企业间担保关系交织形成复杂的担保网络,导致财务问题和经营困境叠加,引爆担保链风险,事件以铁观音集团、安溪茶厂分别破产重整告终;最后,本文从“三查”即贷前调查、贷时审查和贷后管理三个角度为商业银行防范和化解担保链风险提出相应的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s small and medium-sized enterprises generally exist the problem of“difficult and expensive financing”.Due to the lack of collateral and low credit level,bank guarantee loan has become an important financing way for small and medium-sized enterprises.With the development of guarantee relationship,capital guarantee chain is formed among enterprises.When the loan enterprise defaults,the joint and several liability of the guarantee enterprise for debt repayment will form pressure on its own financial situation,and even cause the break of the capital chain.Therefore,a debt default may spread along the guarantee chain,giving rise to huge risk contagion capacity and destructive power,triggering the “Domino Effect” of successive corporate failures,threatening the security of bank credit assets and undermining the regional economic and financial stability.In recent years,there have been many incidents of guarantee chain accidents in China,and the problem of guarantee chain needs to be solved urgently.This paper adopts literature research method,game theory,case analysis method and the combination of theoretical research and model analysis.The research objectives include: establishing the dynamic game model of guarantee chain financing,combining with the actual situation of the guarantee chain case of Anxi Tiekuanyin Group,obtaining the internal mechanism and realistic enlightenment of the risk outbreak of the guarantee chain;exploring the countermeasures of guarantee chain risk and putting forward feasible suggestions for commercial banks and other financial institutions to carry out guarantee loan business.First of all,this paper makes a literature review and theoretical analysis on the phenomenon of guarantee chain,sorts out the definition,structure and basic theory of guarantee chain,analyzes the causes of the formation,contagion and outbreak of the risk of guarantee chain from multiple perspectives,summarizes the characteristics and hazards of guarantee chain,summarizes the status quo of guarantee chain and commercial bank guarantee loan in China.Secondly,this paper establishes a dynamic game model of guarantee chain financing to further improve the formation mechanism of enterprise capital guarantee chain,including the dynamic game model with complete information of guarantee chain financing and the signal game model with enterprise guarantee as the risk signal under incomplete information.The analysis of the game model shows that the effective means to reduce the enterprise default behavior is to raise the cost of enterprise breach of trust and information fraud in the society,strengthen the risk management of bank-government cooperation,and increase the punishment of malicious evasion and waste debt.Then,this paper analyzes the guarantee relationship,existing problems and causes of the typical guarantee chain through the case of Anxi Tiekuanyin Group’s guarantee chain,sorts out the measures to deal with the risk of the guarantee chain in the case,and makes a case summary.This paper finds that the core of the guarantee chain of Tiekuanyin Group is to provide guarantee among related parties,and the guarantee relationships among enterprises interweave to form a complex guarantee network.The superposition of financial problems and operating difficulties triggered the risk of the guarantee chain,and the event ended with the bankruptcy and reorganization of Tiekuanyin Group and Anxi Tea Factory respectively.Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for commercial banks to prevent and resolve the risk of guarantee chain from three perspectives of “three checks”,namely,pre-loan investigation,loan review and post-loan management.更多还原