【作者】 李慧；

【导师】 李保民；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 国际商务（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 自中国加入WTO以来,中国企业的国际化进程一直备受关注。中国制造业出口作为中国外贸出口的主力军更是国内外关注的焦点。当前,中国正处于新的经济发展阶段,无论是在发展方式上还是在发展结构上都出现了巨大的变化。依靠人口红利和资本投入的增长方式已缺乏可持续性。因此,加快中国制造业转型和升级,推进制造业高质量发展意义非凡。但近年来,中国出口环境并不乐观。从外部环境来看,反全球化浪潮、发达国家工业复兴计划、贸易保护主义日益盛行,全球经济政策不确定性不断攀升。中国作为世界上众多国家和地区的贸易伙伴,贸易出口环境也受到了空前挑战。从内部环境来看,目前中国正处于改革的重要关口,各类经济政策频繁调整,由此引发的经济政策不稳定增加了中国制造业企业出口风险。因此在新时代改革的大背景下,提高中国制造业全要素生产率,促进外贸高质量发展至关重要。本文选取中国27个制造业行业2005-2019年间的数据,根据DEAMalmquist法,测量中国制造业各行业的全要素生产率,发现全要素生产率在不同时期内表现出不同的行业特征。运用固定效应模型对经济政策不确定性、全要素生产率与制造业出口三者之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:(1)经济政策不确定性对中国制造业出口具有抑制作用,且这种抑制作用在传统制造业与高新技术制造业中均存在;(2)全要素生产率对中国制造业出口具有促进作用,且这种促进作用在传统制造业与高新技术制造业中均存在;(3)全要素生产率在经济政策不确定性对制造业出口的负面影响中起正向调节作用,且这种调节作用只存在于传统制造业企业。此外,这种调节作用主要是通过抑制企业技术进步变动(TC)来实现的。综合理论分析和实证检验结果,结合中国制造业现实发展情况,为促进中国制造业出口高质量发展,本文进行了相应的对策性探讨,分别从政府和企业层面提出了相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China’s accession to the WTO,the internationalization process of Chinese enterprises has attracted much attention.As the main force of China’s foreign trade exports,China’s manufacturing exports are the focus of attention at home and abroad.At present,China is in a new stage of economic development,and great changes have taken place in both the development mode and the development structure.The growth mode that relies on demographic dividends and capital investment is no longer sustainable.Therefore,it is of great significance to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry and promote the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.But in recent years,China’s export environment is not optimistic.From the perspective of the external environment,the tide of anti-globalization,industrial revival plans in developed countries,and trade protectionism are increasingly prevalent.Global economic policy uncertainty is rising.As a trading partner of many countries and regions in the world,China’s trade and export environment has also faced unprecedented challenges.From the perspective of the internal environment,China is currently at an important juncture of reform,and various economic policies are frequently adjusted.The resulting instability in economic policies increases the export risk of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.Therefore,in the context of the reform in the new era,it is very important to improve the total factor productivity of China’s manufacturing industry and promote the high-quality development of foreign trade.This paper selects the data of 27 manufacturing industries in China from 2005 to2019,and measures the total factor productivity of China’s manufacturing industries according to the DEA-Malmquist method,and finds that total factor productivity shows different industry characteristics in different periods.The fixed effect model is used to empirically study the relationship between economic policy uncertainty,total factor productivity and manufacturing exports.The results show that:(1)economic policy uncertainty has an inhibitory effect on China’s manufacturing exports,and this inhibitory effect exists in both traditional manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing;(2)total factor productivity has a negative impact on China’s manufacturing exports.(3)Total factor productivity plays a positive moderating role in the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on manufacturing exports,and this The adjustment effect only exists in traditional manufacturing enterprises.In addition,this moderating effect is mainly achieved by inhibiting the technological progress change(TC)of firms.Comprehensive theoretical analysis and empirical test results,combined with the actual development of China’s manufacturing industry,in order to promote the highquality development of China’s manufacturing exports,this paper conducts corresponding countermeasures,and puts forward relevant policy recommendations from the government and enterprise levels.更多还原