【作者】 张弦；

【导师】 王宗军；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 企业管理， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 21世纪以来,重大突发公共卫生事件屡见不鲜。2020年新冠肺炎疫情在全球大肆传播,引发了自二战结束后史无前例的全球性经济、政治、健康多重危机。新冠肺炎疫情对国民生命安全带来极大威胁的同时,对经济运行产生了深远而持久的影响,加之当前疫情仍起伏反复,进一步加剧了国内经济下行的压力。开展针对重大突发公共卫生事件经济影响的特征、机制以及定量评价研究,有助于认识、掌握、应用重大突发公共卫生事件冲击下经济受损和恢复规律,以期运用论文的研究成果更科学、高效、精准指导经济健康有序发展。影响机制分析方面,基于危机管理、灾害经济学、产业关联等理论,分析了严重传染病经济影响的主要特征,构建了主要由供给侧、需求侧、科技创新组成的宏观经济影响机制的研究框架。运用个案分析法,以新冠肺炎疫情为例,聚焦中国经济转型背景,从经济冲击的根源出发,多维度、多视角分析了国内宏观经济受疫情影响的机制路径。运用对比分析法,探究了非典疫情与新冠肺炎疫情的差异性特征。在实证分析方面,构建了自回归移动平均(ARMA)经济影响评价模型,得到以下实证结论:(1)从整体上看,新冠疫情在短期内对我国宏观经济正常运行轨道造成了全方位的且复杂的冲击。(2)从影响特点看,新冠肺炎疫情冲击下,我国宏观经济呈现需求侧疲软与供给侧中断交替叠加效应。(3)从影响程度看,新冠肺炎疫情对我国宏观经济的冲击总体可控,但仍存在一定不确定性。最后论文提出了四方面的决策参考:科学精准实施宏观调控、培育完整内需体系、强化产业链与供应链现代化建设、加快推动经济新旧动能转换。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the beginning of the 21 st century,major public health emergencies have occurred frequently.In 2020,the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world,triggering multiple global economic,political and health crises unprecedented since the end of World War II.While the COVID-19 pandemic poses a great threat to people’s lives,it has had a profound and lasting impact on economic performance.In addition,the current outbreak is still fluctuating,which has further intensified the downward pressure on the domestic economy.Research on the mechanism,mechanism and quantitative evaluation of the economic impact of major public health emergencies is helpful to understand and master the law of economic damage and recovery under the impact of major public health emergencies,so as to use the research results of this thesis to guide the healthy and orderly development of economy in a more scientific,efficient and accurate way.In the aspect of impact mechanism analysis,based on the theoretical basis of crisis management,disaster economics,industrial association and so on,the mechanism characteristics of the economic impact of severe infectious diseases are analyzed,and the research framework of macroeconomic impact mechanism mainly composed of supply side,demand side,and scientific and technological innovation is constructed.With the case analysis method and the COVID-19 epidemic as an example,this paper focuses on the background of China’s economic transformation and analyzes the mechanism of the impact on the domestic macro economy from multi-dimensional and multi-perspective starting from the root of the economic shock.Comparative analysis was used to explore the differences between the SARS epidemic and the COVID-19 epidemic,and to deeply grasp the temporal characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic’s impact on the macro economy.In the aspect of empirical analysis,the economic impact assessment model of ARMA is constructed,and the following empirical conclusions are drawn :(1)on the whole,the novel coronavirus epidemic has caused a comprehensive and complex impact on the normal operation track of China’s macro economy in the short term.(2)From the perspective of the impact characteristics,China’s macro economy under the impact of COVID-19 presents an alternating superposition effect of demand-side weakness and supply-side disruption.(3)The impact of COVID-19 on China’s macro economy is generally controllable,but there is still some uncertainty.Finally,the thesis puts forward four aspects of decision-making reference: scientific and accurate implementation of macro-control,cultivating a complete domestic demand system,strengthening the modernization of industrial chain and supply chain,accelerating the transformation of old and new economic drivers.更多还原