【作者】 王艳；

【导师】 冯群；

【作者基本信息】 济南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 随着社会的不断发展和进步,人们对生活品质的要求不断提高,城市化程度的不断增加也推动着建筑数量和规模的快速增长。然而,这种趋势也导致了建筑能耗的不断上升。中国提出2030年前达到二氧化碳排放峰值,争取2060年前实现碳中和的目标。因此,在实现碳达峰和碳中和的大背景下,建筑领域将承担更多的节能减排任务。党的二十大报告明确指出了积极稳妥地推进碳达峰和碳中和的重要性,强调先立后破,完善能源消耗总量和强度调控,并推进工业、建筑、交通等领域的清洁低碳转型。当前正是推进建筑节能的关键时期。识别建筑全寿命周期能耗的利益相关主体与关键影响因素,并进一步确定造成建筑全寿命周期能耗增长的各影响因素影响程度以及应为此负有关键责任的利益相关主体,从全寿命周期的角度探讨能耗治理问题,有助于政府找到推动建筑节能的着力点,出台有针对性的政策措施。然而,目前国内对建筑能耗影响因素的研究多停留在单纯对因素进行研究,结合利益相关主体进行的研究较少,现有的能耗治理研究也多是针对某一阶段的能耗分析。因此,本文将建筑能耗影响因素与建筑全寿命周期利益相关主体结合,运用定性定量相结合的方法研究了造成建筑能耗增长的影响因素和利益相关主体,为以往单纯对影响因素进行的研究提供了重要补充,并从全寿命周期角度出发探讨各利益相关主体的能耗治理问题,为制定节能战略规划提供依据。论文的核心内容包括:建筑全寿命周期能耗的计算分析、建筑全寿命周期利益相关主体界定、建筑全寿命周期能耗影响因素识别、建筑全寿命周期能耗增长的影响因素的影响程度与关键利益相关主体研究以及建筑全寿命周期能耗协同治理的政策建议,主要结论如下:(1)建筑行业是全国能源消费的最大领域之一。2020年建筑全寿命周期能耗为23.07亿吨标准煤,占全国能源消费总量的46.3%,是国民经济中能源消费最大的部门之一。(2)社会因素、经济因素和产业结构因素对建筑能耗的增长发挥了显著的推动作用。利用STIRPAT模型,对造成建筑能耗增长的因素进行了定量研究,并运用岭回归的方法建立了回归分析模型,研究发现以上因素对建筑能耗的增长具有显著的推动作用。(3)建筑全寿命周期的各利益相关主体对建筑能耗的升高均负有重要责任。通过将造成筑能耗增长的影响因素与利益相关主体进行关联研究,发现针对某个单一利益相关主体的节能政策无法实现建筑全寿命周期能耗的显著降低。只有通过统筹各利益相关主体,实现协同合作,才能更加有效地降低建筑能耗。纵观全文,论文在以下方面取得了创新:(1)从全寿命周期角度出发探讨建筑各利益相关主体能耗治理问题,是对目前仅研究单一阶段建筑能耗的重要进展。仅对某一阶段进行能耗研究具有一定的局限性,因为各阶段的利益目标不一致,仅达到本阶段的零能耗可能会增加其他阶段的成本和能耗。因此,研究全寿命周期的主体能耗治理不仅仅是简单地组合所有阶段,而是要考虑各利益相关主体在整个生命周期中的协同治理。(2)通过将建筑能耗影响因素与建筑全寿命周期利益相关主体结合分析,本研究为以往单纯对影响因素进行的研究提供了重要补充。由于建筑全寿命周期过程复杂,涉及多个利益相关主体,他们的参与对于降低建筑全寿命周期能耗至关重要。本研究通过对建筑全寿命周期的利益相关主体进行界定,并识别造成建筑能耗增长的主要影响因素并与之进行关联分析,进一步确定不同利益主体对建筑能耗增长的程度大小,并提出利益相关主体协同治理策略,有助于更好地实现建筑节能目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous development and progress of society,people’s demands for quality of life have been continuously increasing.The increasing degree of urbanization has also driven the rapid growth of the number and scale of buildings.However,this trend has also led to the continuous increase in building energy consumption.China has proposed to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before2060.Therefore,in the context of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,the building industry will undertake more energy-saving and emission reduction tasks.The 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out the importance of actively and steadily promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,emphasizing the need to improve the control of total energy consumption and intensity,and promote clean and lowcarbon transformation in industries such as industry,building,and transportation.The current period is a critical period for promoting building energy conservation.Identifying the stakeholders and key influencing factors of the energy consumption throughout the entire life cycle of buildings,and further determining the impact of each influencing factor on the growth of the energy consumption throughout the life cycle,as well as the stakeholders who should bear key responsibilities for this,can help explore the energy consumption governance issues from a life cycle perspective,and enable the government to find the key points to promote energy conservation in buildings and formulate targeted policy measures.However,at present,research in China on the influencing factors of building energy consumption mostly focuses on the analysis of single factors,with little attention paid to the combination of stakeholders and influencing factors,and the existing energy governance research is mostly limited to the analysis of energy consumption in a specific stage.Therefore,this paper combines the influencing factors of building energy consumption with the stakeholders throughout the entire life cycle of buildings,and uses a combined qualitative and quantitative method to study the influencing factors and stakeholders that cause the growth of building energy consumption,providing an important supplement to the previous research that focused on single influencing factors.From a life cycle perspective,this paper also explores the energy consumption governance issues of each stakeholder,providing a basis for the formulation of energy conservation strategies and plans.The core contents of the paper include the following: calculation and analysis of the energy consumption of buildings throughout their entire life cycle;definition of the stakeholders involved in the entire life cycle of buildings;identification of the factors influencing the energy consumption throughout the entire life cycle of buildings;research on the extent of the impact of the factors affecting the increase in energy consumption throughout the entire life cycle of buildings and key stakeholder research;and policy recommendations for the coordinated management of energy consumption throughout the entire life cycle of buildings.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The building industry is the largest energy-consuming sector in China.In 2020,the energy consumption throughout the entire life cycle of buildings was 2.307 billion tons of standard coal,accounting for 46.3% of the total national energy consumption and representing the sector with the highest energy consumption in the national economy.(2)Social factors,economic factors,and industrial structure factors have played a significant role in driving the growth of building energy consumption.Using the STIRPAT model,the factors that have led to the increase in building energy consumption were quantitatively studied,and a regression analysis model was established using ridge regression method.The research found that the above factors have a significant driving effect on the growth of building energy consumption.(3)All relevant stakeholders throughout the entire life cycle of buildings bear important responsibilities for the increase in building energy consumption.By studying the relationship between the factors influencing the increase in energy consumption in buildings and the relevant stakeholders,it was found that energy-saving policies aimed at a single stakeholder cannot significantly reduce the energy consumption throughout the entire life cycle of buildings.Only by coordinating all relevant stakeholders and achieving collaborative cooperation can building energy consumption be effectively reduced.Throughout the paper,the following innovations have been achieved:(1)From a whole life cycle perspective,exploring the issue of multi-agent energy consumption governance in buildings is a breakthrough in the current research which focuses only on the energy consumption of a single stage.Studying energy consumption in a single stage has certain limitations,as the interests and goals of each stage are not consistent.Achieving zero energy consumption in a single stage may increase costs and energy consumption in other stages.Therefore,studying multi-agent energy consumption governance throughout the entire life cycle is not just simply combining all stages,but also considering the collaborative governance of multiple agents throughout the entire life cycle.(2)By combining the factors affecting building energy consumption with the relevant stakeholders throughout the entire life cycle,this study provides an important supplement to the previous research which only focused on individual factors.Due to the complexity of the whole life cycle of buildings,which involves multiple stakeholders,their participation is crucial to reducing the overall energy consumption of buildings throughout their life cycle.This study defines the relevant stakeholders throughout the whole life cycle of buildings,identifies the main factors that contribute to the increase in building energy consumption,and analyzes their correlation.Furthermore,it determines the degree of impact of different stakeholders on the increase in building energy consumption and proposes collaborative governance strategies for multiple agents,which can help achieve energy-saving goals in buildings more effectively.更多还原