【作者】 黄芳；

【导师】 郭凤香；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 随着老龄化社会的进一步加深,国家放开对小汽车驾驶证申领的70岁年龄限制,未来老年驾驶人越来越多,而且老年驾驶人造成的交通事故数和伤亡人数都呈逐年上升趋势,老年驾驶人的交通安全问题已经成为了备受社会关注的热点问题。随着年龄的增长,身体功能开始下降,老年驾驶人为了能独立自主的生活,保持出行活动不受限制,大多数会尽可能地延长驾驶年限。驾驶自我调节被认为是补偿老年驾驶人健康状况或者驾驶能力下降导致危险驾驶的一种策略。当老年驾驶人意识到身体、认知功能以及运动能力的不断变化会对驾驶安全造成不好的影响时,将会适当调整驾驶行为,比如减少驾驶时间和里程、避免具有挑战的驾驶情景,以此来提升自己的驾驶安全性。本文以自我报告式问卷调查的方法为基础,对老年人驾驶自我调节进行调查,建立老年人驾驶自我调节预测模型,研究多种因素对老年人驾驶自我调节的影响。首先,在分析国内外关于老年人驾驶自我调节研究成果的基础上,结合我国实际情况,开发了一套老年人驾驶自我调节问卷,通过线上线下的方式开展了60岁及以上老年驾驶人的问卷调查,收集老年驾驶人自我报告的数据。然后,应用老年驾驶人自我报告的数据,进行社会人口变量、病史、药物服用及驾驶信心对驾驶自我调节的差异性分析,结果表明:不同年龄段、就业情况的老年驾驶人在驾驶暴露行为调整上存在显著差异,不同学历的老年驾驶人在驾驶回避行为调整上存在显著差异;有过病史和药物服用的老年驾驶人的驾驶暴露和驾驶回避水平较低;驾驶信心越高,驾驶回避水平越低。最后,利用结构方程(SEM)模型分别构建出老年人驾驶回避和驾驶暴露预测模型,分析其影响因素。研究发现,性别、年龄、驾龄、驾驶能力、驾驶信心都对驾驶回避有影响,并且驾驶信心对老年人驾驶回避的影响高于其他影响因素;驾驶信心越高的驾驶人往往报告越低的自我调节水平;性别和年龄都是通过影响驾驶能力间接影响驾驶回避行为,随着年龄的增长,驾驶能力开始下降,年龄越大的驾驶人的驾驶回避水平越高,女性老年驾驶人普遍认为其驾驶能力相比男性较低,女性老年驾驶人比男性有更多的驾驶回避行为;通常驾龄越长的驾驶人驾驶信心越高,驾龄越长的老年驾驶人驾驶回避行为越少。年龄、社会支持、就业情况、替代交通工具的感知都显著的影响老年人驾驶暴露,并且年龄对驾驶暴露的影响高于其他影响因素。年龄越大的老年驾驶人的驾驶暴露更少;没有他人建议限制或停止驾驶的老年人,其驾驶暴露更多;退休的老年驾驶人比全职或兼职上班的驾驶暴露相对更少;认为自己居住周边替代交通工具方便快捷的老年驾驶人的驾驶暴露更少。性别、学历、驾龄、驾驶能力也会影响老年驾驶人的驾驶暴露,女性、高学历、驾龄长、驾驶能力高的老年驾驶人的驾驶暴露更少。通过研究结果,明确了老年人驾驶自我调节的影响因素,针对老年驾驶人表现出来的弱项,开展有针对性的干预或教育训练,提高其驾驶安全性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the further deepening of the aging society,the state has liberalized the age limit of the application for the car driver ’ s license,and there will be more and more elderly drivers in the future.The number of traffic accidents and casualties caused by elderly drivers are increasing year by year.The traffic safety of elderly drivers has become a hot issue of social concern.With the increase of age,the physical function begins to decline.In order to live independently and maintain unlimited travel activities,most elderly drivers will extend their driving years as much as possible.Driving selfregulation is considered as a strategy to compensate for the health status of elderly drivers or the decline of driving ability leading to dangerous driving.When the elderly drivers realize that the changing body,cognitive function and exercise capacity will have a bad impact on driving safety,they will adjust driving behavior appropriately,such as reducing driving time and mileage,avoiding challenging driving scenarios,in order to improve their driving safety.Based on the self-report questionnaire survey method,this paper investigates the elderly driving self-regulation,establishes the prediction model of the elderly driving self-regulation,and studies the influence of various factors on the elderly driving self-regulation.First of all,on the basis of analyzing the research results of driving selfregulation of the elderly at home and abroad,and combining with the actual situation of our country,a set of questionnaires on driving self-regulation of the elderly is developed.A questionnaire survey of elderly drivers aged 60 and above is carried out online and offline,and the self-reported data of elderly drivers are collected.Then,using the self-report data of elderly drivers,the differences of social demographic variables,medical history,drug use and driving confidence on driving self-regulation were analyzed.The results showed that there were significant differences in driving exposure among elderly drivers with different ages and employment conditions,and there were significant differences in driving avoidance among elderly drivers with different educational backgrounds.the level of driving exposure and driving avoidance of elderly drivers with medical history and medication is low;the higher the driving confidence,the lower the level of driving avoidance.Finality,the structural equation(SEM)model is used to build driving avoidance and driving exposure prediction models for the elderly,and their influencing factors are analyzed.The study found that gender,age,driving age,driving ability and driving confidence all have influence on driving avoidance,and the influence of driving confidence on elderly driving avoidance is higher than other factors.Drivers with higher driving confidence tend to report lower levels of self-regulation.Both gender and age indirectly affect driving avoidance behavior by affecting driving ability.With the increase of age,driving ability begins to decline,and the older the driver is,the higher the level of driving avoidance is.Female elderly drivers generally believe that their driving ability is lower than men,and female elderly drivers have more driving avoidance behavior than men.Generally speaking,the longer the driving experience,the higher the driving confidence,and the longer the driving experience,the less the elderly drivers’ driving avoidance behavior.Age,social support,employment and perception of alternative means of transport have a significant impact on elderly driving exposure,and the impact of age on driving exposure is higher than other factors.Older drivers have less driving exposure;older drivers who do not have other people’s advice to restrict or stop driving have more driving exposure;retired elderly drivers are relatively less exposed than those who go to work full-time or part-time;elderly drivers who think they live around them are less exposed to alternative means of transportation.Gender,education,driving age,driving ability will also affect the driving exposure of elderly drivers,female,high education,long driving age,high driving ability of elderly drivers have less driving exposure.Through the research results,make clear the factors that affect the elderly drivers’ driving self-regulation,aiming at the weaknesses shown by the elderly drivers,carry out targeted training intervention or education training to improve their driving safety.更多还原