【作者】 李娟；

【导师】 李建峰； 宋丰年；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 工程硕士 项目管理（专业学位）， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 煤炭作为我国的基础能源和工业原料,长期以来为经济社会发展和国家能源安全稳定供应提供了有力保障。引导煤炭企业坚持深化改革创新,深化供给侧结构性改革,科学合理的开发煤炭资源对促进煤炭行业高质量发展发挥着关键作用。通过煤矿项目决策阶段的经济评价和投资风险分析可为政府及企业提供可靠、准确、客观的判断依据。XX煤矿是新时代推动煤炭安全高效绿色开采和清洁高效低碳利用背景下按现代化高产高效矿井标准设计的矿井及选煤厂建设项目,具有很强的代表性。本文在总结国内外研究现状基础上,梳理出了经济评价的内容、方法及步骤;对项目的基本情况、设计方案、市场情况、建设必要性等进行了分析;测算了项目建设投资并设计资金筹措方案,进行了财务分析及不确定性分析。通过定性分析和定量分析识别了项目投资风险、建立了风险评价模型并进行评价,根据分析结果给出了风险防范和降低的具体措施。在进行项目SWOT分析时采用了专家评分法使评价结果量化。在进行投资风险分析时采用了层次分析法和模糊综合评判法相结合的方法建立了风险评价模型,给出了定量的风险程度评价。更多还原

【Abstract】 Coal,as the basic energy and industrial raw material in China,has provided a strong guarantee for the economic and social development and the national energy security and stable supply for a long time.Guiding coal enterprises to adhere to deepening reform and innovation,deepening supply side structural reform,scientific and reasonable development of coal resources plays a key role in promoting the high-quality development of the coal industry.Through the economic evaluation and investment risk analysis of coal mine project decision-making stage,it can provide reliable,accurate and objective judgment basis for the government and enterprises.XX coal mine is a coal mine and coal preparation plant construction project designed according to the modern high-yield and High-efficiency Mine standards under the background of promoting safe and efficient coal mining and clean,efficient and low-carbon utilization in the new era.On the basis of summarizing the research status at home and abroad,this paper sorts out the contents,methods and steps of economic evaluation,analyzes the basic situation,design scheme,market situation and construction necessity of the project,calculates the project construction investment and designs the financing scheme,carries out the financial analysis and uncertainty analysis.Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,the project investment risk is identified,the risk evaluation model is established and evaluated,and the specific measures of risk prevention and reduction are given according to the analysis results.In the SWOT analysis of the project,the expert scoring method is used to quantify the evaluation results.In the process of investment risk analysis,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to establish the risk evaluation model,and the quantitative risk degree evaluation is given.更多还原