【作者】 李勇；

【导师】 吴文生； 盛世杰；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【副题名】基于风险承担视角的研究

【摘要】 近年,中美贸易摩擦掀起逆全球化浪潮、全球新冠疫情反复成为经济复苏新阻力,世界经济进入新一轮波动周期。我国过度依赖出口与投资的发展模式已不再适应日趋复杂的国际经济环境,要实现经济发展方式由粗放式到高质量转变,创新是必由之路。本文借鉴Pindyck（1993）^[8]以及Whalley^[9]理论模型,将经济政策不确定性因素引入企业研发决策模型,证明经济政策不确定性的正向促进作用。同时,基于中国经济政策不确定指数（Baker 2015）^[1],利用中国上市公司2008-2019年的数据进行了实证检验,实证结果支持理论预期。研究结果表明:经济政策不确定性通过增加风险承担促进了企业研发投入。从研发阶段来看,经济政策不确定性对企业风险承担水平更高的研究阶段促进作用更为显著。非国企、高科技企业和市场化程度更高地区的企业在面对外部冲击时,面临着更高的风险承担,因此进一步研究发现,经济政策不确定性对非国企、高科技和市场化程度高的区域企业研发投入影响更大。本研究的创新点包括从创新项目自身价值出发,在Pindyck[8]和Whalley[9]研究基础上加入了经济政策不确定性因素,构建了理论模型;考虑研发活动特性,以“风险”为主线从企业风险承担角度试图揭示研究经济政策不确定性如何作用于企业研发活动;打开了研发活动的“黑箱”过程,将研发投入活动分解成研究和开发两阶段,研究政策不确定性对研发不同阶段的异质影响。本文的研究为企业选择研发活动的渠道和政府设计精准支持企业研发政策提供了一定的参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the Trade Friction between Chian and US has led to de-globalization,Covid-19 has hampered economic recovery all over the world.China’s over-reliance on export and investment development model is no longer suitable for the increasingly complex international economic environment,and innovation is the only way to achieve the transformation of economic development mode from extensive to high-quality.Based on the theoretical models of Pindyck（1993）^[8]and Whalley^[9],this paper introduces the uncertainty factors of economic policy,and proves theoretically that the economic policy uncertainty promotes the R&D investment of enterprises.At the same time,based on China’s economic policy uncertainty index（Baker 2015）,this paper makes an empirical test and the results support the theoretical expectation.The research shows that the economic policy uncertainty increases significantly the R&D expenditure of enterprises.And the enterprise’s risk-taking has an intermediary effect.For the different phases of R&D,economic policy uncertainty has a greater impact on research phases because the level of corporate risk-bearing is higher.The enterprises which include non-state-owned,high-tech and enterprises in more market-oriented regions face higher risk exposures when there are several external shocks.The innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly,considering the value of innovation projects,the theoretical model was constructed by adding economic policy uncertainties on the basis of Pindyck and Whalley.Secondly,considering the characteristics of R&D activities,this paper tries to reveal how economic policy uncertainty affects R&D activities from the enterprise risk-taking perspective.Thirdly,considering different stages of R&D,we divide R&D input activities into two stages:research and development,and analyze the heterogeneous impact of research policy uncertainty on different stages of R&D.The findings in this paper provides a certain reference basis for companies to choose channels for R&D activities and government design to accurately R&D policies.更多还原