【作者】 王琳；

【导师】 孙玉环；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2022， 硕士

【副题名】基于CFPS微观数据

【摘要】 自1998年我国住房商品化以来,房地产价格不断上涨,住房具有长期的增值保值收益,导致我国家庭的住房拥有率极高,住房财富成为中国家庭财富的最大组成部分。与此同时,在我国家庭代际联系紧密、青年人中独生子女多的环境下,父母通常会将自己的住房资产视作留给子女的财产,家庭住房财富很大程度上影响了子女在就业和升学上的抉择倾向。而青年群体的就业和升学选择会对劳动力市场和国家的经济发展带来巨大影响,住房财富不平等可能导致我国青年劳动力就业供应不足。因此,探究家庭住房财富对毕业生就业和升学的影响程度具有重要意义。本文在总结国内外现有文献的基础上,基于2010-2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,探究家庭住房财富对毕业生就业与升学的影响。首先,阐述家庭住房财富及毕业生去向的定义,明确本文使用的数据与变量,介绍模型的原理及模型设定;而后,分别探讨家庭住房资产、家庭住房贫困、家庭住房数量对毕业生毕业去向的影响程度,其中家庭住房贫困和家庭住房数量的实证研究中,先使用倾向得分再加权法削弱实验组和对照组的特征差异,再使用加权数据构建Probit模型进行后续分析;最后,通过异质性分析探究不同群体的抉择差异,进而提出相应的思考和建议。主要研究结论如下:①家庭住房资产对毕业生就业和升学均具有正向影响,对就业的影响更大,异质性分析表明家庭住房资产对受教育程度在大专及以上的毕业生、独生子女以及农村毕业生的影响更大;②家庭住房贫困会导致就业概率降低,升学概率升高,毕业生更倾向于升学,异质性分析表明家庭住房贫困对受教育程度在大专及以上的毕业生、独生子女以及农村毕业生的影响更大;③家庭住房数量对就业具有正向影响,对升学影响不显著,家庭住房数量对独生子女以及城镇毕业生的影响更大。本文基于现有文献,尝试从研究方向、研究角度和研究方法三个方面做出三点优化。首先,尝试分析和比较家庭住房财富对毕业生就业和升学的影响大小,从而探究不同条件下,毕业生在就业和升学两者之间的抉择倾向;其次,分别从家庭住房资产、家庭住房贫困、家庭住房数量三方面衡量住房财富,进一步细化了家庭住房财富对毕业生就业和升学的影响;最后,使用倾向得分再加权法,一定程度上避免了因实验组和对照组存在较大差异导致Probit回归结果有偏的情况发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the commercialization of housing in China in 1998,the price of real estate has continued to rise,and housing has long-term value-added benefits.As a result,the homeownership rate of Chinese families is extremely high,and housing wealth has become the largest component of Chinese family wealth.At the same time,in an environment where Chinese families are closely intergenerational and there are many only children among young people,parents usually regard their own housing assets as property left to their children,and family housing wealth largely affects their children’s choice in employment and further study.The choice of young people between employment and further study will have a huge impact on the labor market and the country’s economic development.The inequality of housing wealth may lead to insufficient employment supply for my country’s youth labor force.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the impact of family housing wealth on the employment and further study of young graduates.On the basis of summarizing the existing literature at home and abroad,this paper explores the impact of family housing wealth on the employment and further study of young graduates based on the data of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2018.First,the definition of family housing wealth and the whereabouts of graduates is explained,the data and variables used in this paper are clarified,and the principle and model setting of the model are introduced.Then,the impact of family housing assets,family housing poverty,and family housing quantity on the graduation of young graduates is discussed respectively.The degree of influence of whereabouts,among which,in the empirical research on family housing poverty and the number of family housing,the Reweighting on Propensity Score were used to weaken the characteristic difference between the experimental group and the control group,and then the weighted data was used to construct a Probit model for subsequent analysis.Finally,qualitative analysis explores the differences in the choices of different groups,and then puts forward corresponding thinking and suggestions.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Family housing assets have a positive impact on graduates’ employment and further study,and have a greater impact on employment,and heterogeneity analysis shows that family housing assets have a greater impact on graduates with college study or above,only children and rural graduates;(2)Family housing poverty leads to a lower probability of employment,an increase in the probability of further study,and graduates are more inclined to go on to higher study,and heterogeneity analysis shows that family housing poverty has a greater impact on graduates with college study or above,only children and rural graduates;(3)Family housing quantity has a positive impact on employment,but the impact on further study is not significant,and the impact of family housing quantity on only children and urban graduates is greater.Based on the existing literature,this paper attempts to make some optimizations from three aspects:research direction,research angle and research method.Firstly,this paper attempts to analyze and compare the impact of family housing wealth on graduates’ employment and further study,so as to explore the choice tendency of graduates between employment and further study under different conditions.Secondly,this paper measures housing wealth from three aspects:family housing assets,family housing poverty,and family housing quantity,and further refines the impact of family housing wealth on the employment and further study of young graduates;Thirdly,this paper uses the Reweighting on Propensity Score,which to a certain extent avoids the occurrence of biased Probit regression results due to the large difference between the experimental group and the control group.更多还原