【作者】 周杰；

【导师】 周新苗；

【作者基本信息】 宁波大学 ， 国际商务硕士（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济贸易全球化的发展,国际资本的流动范围和频度不断增强,这也为一国的经济发展和金融创新带来了机遇和挑战。中国作为一个庞大的新兴经济体国家而言更容易受到国际资本流动异常情况的影响,这个对于一个国家经济的稳定发展和金融安全来说会受到某种程度的影响,对我国的货币政策体系也会带来冲击。在这种情况下本文分析我国资本流动的特征及未来趋势,并通过模型研究开放经济条件下国际资本的流动对我国货币政策变量的冲击效应,为货币当局制定和实施正确而有效的货币政策,维护宏观经济的平稳运行和发展具有理论与现实意义。本文首先介绍了国际资本流动与货币政策的相关概念和影响因素,并重点介绍IS-LM-BP模型和“三元悖论”及其拓展,为研究奠定理论基础。紧接着通过整理最新数据概述我国资本流动的现状以及我国资本输出国的地位将长期保持、对外直接投资与对外证券投资齐头并进、中国官方资本输入上升,私人资本输出上升我国国际资本流动未来发展趋势的结论。并对文章的影响机理做了详细的阐述,具体包括国际资本的流动对货币供给的影响、对货币政策的传导渠道影响和对货币政策的最终目标影响。实证部分本文选取了国际资本流动、货币供应量、汇率、利率、居民物价消费指数、国内生产总值、进口额和出口额8个指标建立VAR模型,并通过平稳性检验、最优滞后阶数的确定以及协整检验得出国际资本流动与汇率成负相关,其余变量均为正相关并通过稳健性检验。根据理论与实证结果,本文对提升货币政策的有效性和货币当局提升抵御风险的能力提出政策性建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economic and trade globalization,the range and frequency of international capital flows are increasing,which also brings opportunities and challenges for a country’s economic development and financial innovation.As a large emerging economy,China is more vulnerable to abnormal international capital flows,which will affect the stable development of a country’s economy and financial security,and will also have an impact on China’s monetary policy system.In this case,this paper analyzes the characteristics and future trend of capital flows in our country,and through the research under the condition of open economy model of international capital flows on China’s monetary policy variables impact effect,for the monetary authorities to formulate and implement the correct and effective monetary policy,to maintain smooth operation and development of macro economy has theory and practical significance.This paper first introduces the relevant concepts and influencing factors of international capital flow and the effectiveness of monetary policy,and focuses on the IS-LM-BP model and the "triparadox" and its expansion,laying a theoretical foundation for the research.Then,by sorting out the latest data,this paper summarizes the current situation of China’s capital flow and the conclusion that China’s status as a capital exporting country will be maintained for a long time,that foreign direct investment and foreign securities investment go hand in hand,that China’s official capital input and private capital output rise,and that China’s international capital flow will develop in the future.The paper also elaborates the influence mechanism,including the influence of international capital flow on the money supply,the influence on the transmission channel of monetary policy and the influence on the ultimate goal of monetary policy.The empirical part of this article selects the international capital flow,money supply,exchange rate,interest rate and residents consumption price index,gross domestic product(GDP),imports and exports eight indexes to establish the VAR model,and through stationarity test,the most backward and cointegration test to determine the order of international capital flows and the exchange rate into negative correlation,the rest of the variables are positively related.Based on the theoretical and empirical results,this paper puts forward policy Suggestions for improving the effectiveness of monetary policy and the ability of monetary authorities to resist risks.更多还原