【作者】 李妍；

【导师】 王庆石；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 2020年11月15日,东盟、中国、韩国、日本、新西兰和澳大利亚十五个国家正式签署 RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,即区域全面经济伙伴关系协定)。在如今全球新冠疫情肆虐、单边主义和贸易保护主义盛行以及霸权主义潮流上升,全世界经济处于阴霾的背景下,RCEP的签署给中国以及其他成员国带来了曙光。自2012年正式谈判开始,RCEP历经了 8个春秋,几十回合谈判,终于在2020年年尾签署。RCEP的成立主要是为了消除这15个国家相互之间的非关税贸易壁垒和关税贸易壁垒,进而创造一个更加自由和更加便利化的区域。RCEP协定的成功签署,将全面提升我国与其他14个国家的多边贸易合作关系,从而推动中国对外贸易走向一个新的台阶,同时也推动亚太地区的经济发展,也将使这一区域资源得到更加有效的配置。因此,有必要研究RCEP对中国经济的影响。本文首先梳理了区域经济一体化基本理论和国际贸易基本理论,为本文之后分析奠定了一定的理论基础。再结合中国对RCEP整个区域和区域内各个国家(地区)的进出口总额数据和分产业进出口数据,分析了 2009-2019年中国与RCEP区域和RCEP区域各个伙伴国(地区)进出口贸易规模和贸易结构。然后运用第十版GTAP模型模拟RCEP协定在实施初期、发展期和成熟期三个时期的情景,定量评估了在三个时期中关税的减免以及非关税壁垒的降低对中国的经济以及对外贸易的影响。最后本文给出了结论以及针对模拟结果为中国经济发展提出了建议。本文的模拟结果显示:第一,RCEP协定对中国的国内生产总值、社会福利、居民收入、进出口贸易以及部分产业产出都有促进作用,但中国的贸易条件却出现了恶化。第二,RCEP协定实施后,中国对日韩和港澳台地区为贸易逆差,对澳新和东盟为贸易顺差,总的来说对各个国家的进出口总额均呈正增长。第三,中国的奶类制品、橡胶塑料制品、化学药品及基本药品、机电产品及运输制造业部门将会受到不同程度的冲击,对此中国的有关部门需要引起重视。第四,RCEP外的其他非成员国的GDP、社会福利、居民收入和贸易条件都将呈现出不同程度的恶化。因此在未来RCEP协定实施时,中国应做好应对政策,从而提高中国产品在RCEP区域内的竞争优势。本文的研究有着重要的理论意义:第一,本文通过实证分析,研究RCEP协定对中国经济产生的影响,使中国能够更加有效地制定融入RCEP的步骤,为中国借助RCEP协定实现中国国内经济正增长和对外贸易正增长提供理论指导;第二,在现有的区域经济一体化研究中,大多数研究者的研究对象是发达国家,而RCEP不仅有发达国家,发展中国家更是占据大多数,其经济发展水平差异较大,研究RCEP能够为我国之后建设其他大型自贸区起到示范和引导作用,并能够提供理论上的指导。本文的研究也同样有重要的现实意义:RCEP使我国能够更好地把握亚太经济一体化发展的机遇,巩固我国与各伙伴国的经济合作,这也为我国的发展提供新的经济和贸易增长点,进一步深化我国的开放水平,提高我国在亚太经济合作中的地位,能够更有效地应对美国对我国经济和政治上的遏制。本文通过分析RCEP框架下中国的对外贸易现状,模拟并分析RCEP对中国的经济影响,从而提出相应的政策建议。本文的创新点主要有以下三个方面:(1)以往研究者在进行模拟时,大多数学者没有分阶段考虑RCEP实施后的各阶段中国的经济效应,而本文在进行情景设定时,考虑了 RCEP实施后的各个阶段,即实施初期、发展期、成熟期,循序渐进、全面科学地设定情景,以便模拟结果更加贴近现实情况;(2)在以往文献中,大多数学者没有考虑非关税壁垒的降低带给各成员国(地区)的经济影响,而RCEP中最大的特点是非关税壁垒的降低,本文将非关税壁垒也考虑了进去;(3)在以往的文献中大多采用旧版的GTAP模型,而本文运用最新版的即第十版的GTAP模型,在设计情景时,考虑了印度的退出,使得模拟结果更有说服力。更多还原

【Abstract】 November 15,2020,RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)was officially signed by ASEAN,China,South Korea,Japan,New Zealand and Australia.In today’s global new crown epidemics,single-sidedism and trade protectionism and hegemonism trends have risen,and the world economy is in the context of haze,RCEP’s signing brings dawn to China and other Member States.Since the official negotiations in 2012,RCEP has passed 8 spring and autumn,dozens round negotiations,and finally signed in 2020.The establishment of RCEP is mainly to eliminate non-tariff trade barriers between these 15 countries and tariff trade barriers,thereby creating a more free and more convenient area.The successful sign of the RCEP protocol will fully improve the multilateral trade partnership between China and other 14 countries,thereby promoting China’s foreign trade to a new step,and also promoting economic development in the Asia-Pacific region will also make this regional resources more Effective configuration.Therefore,it is necessary to study the impact of RCEP on China’s economy.This paper first combed the basic theory of regional economic integration and the basic theory of international trade,and laid a certain theoretical basis for the analysis of this paper.Combined with China’s import and export data of RCEP’s entire region and regional import and export data and division of industry import and export data,China and RCEP area and RCEP region and RCEP regional import and export trade scale were analyzed in 2009-2019.And trading structure.Then use the tenth version of the GTAP model to simulate RCEP Agreement in the implementation of the initial,development period and maturity,quantitative assessment of the reduction in tariffs in three periods and the reduction of non-tariff barriers to China’s economy and foreign trade.Influence.Finally,this paper gives a recommendation for China’s economic development for simulation results.The simulation results of this paper show:First,RCEP Agreement has promoted China’s gross domestic product,social welfare,resident income,import and export trade,and some industrial output,but China’s trade conditions have deteriorated.Second,after the implementation of the RCEP Agreement,China’s trade deficit against Japan and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan,and the total import and export of various countries is growing in the trade surplus in Japan and South Korea and China’s Hong Kong,China’s Macao and China’s Taiwan.Third,China’s milk products,rubber plastic products,chemicals and basic drugs,mechanical and electrical products and transportation manufacturing departments will be affected by varying degrees,and the relevant departments of China need to pay attention.Fourth,other non-member revenues and social conditions of other non-member countries outside RCEP will show different degrees of deterioration.Therefore,when the RCEP agreement is implemented in the future,China should do a good job in response to the competitive advantage of Chinese products in the RCEP area.This paper has important theoretical significance:First,this paper uses an empirical analysis to study the influence of RCEP agreement on China’s economy,so that China can make more effectively into the RCEP step,to achieve China’s domestic economy with RCEP agreement And provide theoretical guidance on the growth of foreign trade;Second,in the existing regional economic integration study,most researchers’ research objects are developed countries.The RCEP not only has developed countries,but also the developing country has occupied most,and its economic development is different.Study RCEP can play a demonstration and guidance role in building other large-scale self-trade districts after China,and can provide theoretical guidance..The study of this paper also has important practical significance:RCEP enables China to better grasp the opportunity of Asia-Pacific economic integration development,consolidate China’s economic cooperation with all partner countries,which also provides new economic and trade growth for China’s development.Point,further deepening China’s opening level,improve the status of China in Asia-Pacific economic cooperation,can more effectively respond to the United States to China’s economic and political containers.Based on the analysis of China’s foreign trade status,simulation and analysis of RCEP’s economic impact of China under the RCEP framework,this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations.The innovation points of this paper mainly have the following three aspects:(1)In the past,most scholars did not consider the economic effects of China after the implementation of RCEP implementation,and this article considers At various stages of RCEP implementation,that is,the initial,period,maturity,step-by-step,comprehensive scientific setting scenario,so that the simulation results are more close to the reality;(2)In the past literature,most scholars did not consider non-tariffs The decrease in barriers brings to the economic impact of Member States(region),and the biggest feature in RCEP is a decrease in non-tariff barriers.This article will take into account the non-tariff barriers;(3)Most of the old version of GTAP in the past literature Model,and this article uses the latest version of the tenth GTAP model,in the design scenario,considering India’s exit,making the simulation results more convincing.更多还原