【作者】 孙悦；

【导师】 胡蓓蓓；

【作者基本信息】 山东师范大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,分时租赁的电动共享汽车在我国城市出现并得到迅速的发展,这种出行方式将汽车的使用权与所有权分离,满足人们多样化的出行需求,有助于降低城市汽车保有量,缓解城市交通拥堵,大大提高城市资源的配置效率。虽然共享汽车的发展补充了其他城市交通出行方式,给城市交通带来了诸多的便利和好处。但是随着越来越多的运营商将车辆投放到城市中,这一行为引发了与一些其他交通方式的激烈竞争,如出租车,导致市场主体的利益重新分配;同时,交通方式之间的竞争和替代也会给共享汽车带来巨大的潜在转移需求。因此,为了推动共享汽车产业健康持续发展,聚焦不同出行情形下共享汽车的优势市场和演变趋势,挖掘共享汽车潜在需求,这对于合理调控和配置共享汽车市场具有重要的意义。本文利用了北京市共享汽车和出租车的出行订单及其GPS轨迹数据,从出行成本的角度探讨共享汽车的竞争优势市场、发展趋势和潜在需求,旨在为共享汽车规范运营提出合理化策略。首先,基于共享汽车和出租车的实际运营数据,对用户特征,出行的时空分布特征进行提取和分析。其次,根据共享汽车和出租车的出行特征及轨迹构建出行成本对比模型,分别测算对比共享汽车场景下和出租车场景下两种出行方式的成本,包括实际的共享汽车出行成本和模拟的出租车出行成本,以及实际的出租车出行成本和模拟的共享汽车出行成本。然后,比较其在出行里程、出行时间、使用效率等维度的成本差异,定位共享汽车的成本优势空间。讨论了出行的不同因素(如时间成本、等待时间等)对共享汽车出行成本优势的影响,以及在不同出行条件下的竞争演变趋势。最后,通过成本优势来挖掘不同出行情形(如取车距离,时间成本,价格浮动)下共享汽车的潜在需求。结果表明,当租车时间不太长(小于14小时)、使用效率较高、停车时间小于8小时时,共享汽车的成本优势尤为明显。在城市出租车短缺的时期或地区使用汽车共享有很大的成本优势。在短途出行的情况下,共享汽车对于中低收入群体具有更大的成本优势,共享单车的普及也可以增加汽车共享的成本优势,不同出行模式的协同可以增加潜在需求,促进共享汽车的发展。然而,在长途出行的情况下,尤其是在利用效率高、出行停驻时间短的情况下,共享汽车会保持其成本优势。此外,共享汽车具有较大的潜在需求市场。目前,北京市可以由出租车出行转移为共享汽车出行的订单的可转移率超过90%。当长途、长时间出行时(比如超过30千米,1小时),共享汽车的出行成本优势变得更大。此时,共享汽车的出行成本约为出租车的50%。在出行者取车距离相对较短,用户处于中低收入水平,共享单车的普及程度较高的场景下,共享汽车的成本优势较高,潜在需求较大。运营商可兼顾需求与效益区别定价,促进多方式交通出行与共享汽车的接驳使用等策略,来满足共享汽车的需求和发展。本文的研究有助于从成本角度理解共享汽车用户的出行需求和交通方式的选择,明晰共享汽车的市场竞争优势,制定合理运营策略(如定价方案、设施保障等),促进共享汽车市场的健康可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,electric car-sharing rental by time has emerged and developed rapidly in Chinese cities.This mode of transportation separates the right to use and ownership of vehicles,meets people’s diverse travel needs,helps reduce urban car ownership,alleviates urban traffic congestion,and greatly improves the allocation efficiency of transportation resources.Although the development of car-sharing complements other travel modes and has brought a lot of convenience and benefits to urban transportation,it leads to fierce competition with some other modes(such as taxis)and redistributes the interests of market players as more and more operators put vehicles into markets.At the same time,competition and substitution among travel modes will bring huge potential demand shift from other modes to car-sharing.Therefore,in order to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the car-sharing industry,it is necessary to focus on the market with cost advantages and evolution trend of car-sharing under different travel situations,and explore its potential demand.These will be of great significance to rationally regulate and configure the car-sharing market.Based on the car-sharing and taxi travel orders and GPS trajectory data in Beijing,this study discusses the competitive advantage market,development trend and potential demand of car-sharing from the perspective of travel-cost,aiming to put forward reasonable strategies for standardized operation of car-sharing.Firstly,based on the operating data of car-sharing and taxis,the users’ characteristics and the spatial temporal distribution characteristics of trips are extracted and analyzed.Secondly,according to the travel characteristics and trajectory build travel-cost comparison model,respectively measuring contrast the travel costs of two ways in car-sharing scenarios and taxi scenario.It includes the actual travel-cost of car-sharing and the simulated travel-cost of taxi,as well as the actual travel-cost of taxi and the simulated travel-cost of car-sharing.Then,cost differences are compared to locate the cost advantages of car-sharing in travel mileage,travel duration,utilization efficiency and other dimensions.And discuss the influence of different travel factors(such as time cost,waiting time,etc.)on the cost advantage of car-sharing and the competitive evolution trend under different travel conditions.Finally,the potential demand for car-sharing under different travel conditions(such as pick-up distance,time cost and price fluctuation)is explored through cost advantages.The results reveal that,under the current pricing conditions,the cost advantage of car-sharing is particularly obvious when the rental duration is not too long(less than 14 hours),the utilization efficiency is relatively high,and the stop time is shorter than 8 hours.It also finds that it makes great cost advantage of using car-sharing in periods or areas of urban taxi shortages.In the cases of short distance trips,car-sharing has bigger cost advantage for the middle and low-income groups.The popularity of bike-sharing can also increase the cost advantage of car-sharing,which indicates that the synergy of different travel models could promote the development of car sharing.However,when people travel long,the cost advantage of car-sharing would be minimally affected by the elements,such as people’s income and the development of bike-sharing.In other words,car-sharing would keep its cost advantage in the cases of long travel,especially when its utilization efficiency is high and the travel stop time is short.In addition,the car-sharing has a large potential demand in the market.Currently,the shift rate between travel modes,which refers to the ratio of orders that can be shifted from taxi to car-sharing trips in Beijing,exceeds 90%.When traveling long distances or duration(more than30 km or 1 hour),the travel cost advantage of car-sharing becomes larger.In such situations,the travel cost of car-sharing is about 50% of the cost of a taxi.We also find that the cost advantage of car-sharing is relatively high,and the potential demand is large,in cases where the pick-up distance is relatively short,the users are in the middle-or low-income levels,and the popularity of bicycle-sharing is relatively high.Operators can take into account the differentiated pricing of demand and benefit,promote the connection of car-sharing and other multi-modes of transportation to meet the demand and development of car-sharing.This research is helpful to understand the travel needs and transportation modes choices of car-sharing users from the perspective of travel-cost,clarify the competitive advantage market of car-sharing,formulate reasonable operation strategies(such as pricing scheme,facility guarantee,etc.),and promote the healthy and sustainable development of car-sharing in China.更多还原