【作者】 李敏；

【导师】 陈怡安；

【作者基本信息】 西南政法大学 ， 应用经济学， 2021， 硕士

【副题名】基于增值税转型改革的“准自然实验”

【摘要】 创新作为企业可持续发展的核心要素,关系着社会经济发展。“抓创新就是抓发展、谋创新就是谋未来。”这是我们每个社会参与者都耳熟于心的一句话。而创新要素作为引领经济发展的首要驱动力,更是关乎一个国家的经济发展水平,国家缺少创新就像是人体缺少灵魂,企业缺少创新就像是器械缺少马达,现代中国仍处于世界上最大的发展中国家地位也主要是因为我们科技革命进步的步伐依旧处于相对落后的局面。为此,早在2016年,我国党中央就提出要努力实现科教兴国、人才强国的战略目标,为我国企业和社会发展指出了一条鲜明的道路。一个离开了企业的市场就如同无源之水,无本之木,而一个离开了创新的企业就会失去它的生机、它的出路和它的核心竞争力。既然企业作为社会发展的生机和原动力,那么研究企业在市场中的行为即是在研究市场经济的发展方向,而且创新不仅是一个企业的核心,更是我国迈向创新驱动发展道路的一个重要战略目标,所以着力研究政策促进企业进行创新创业的行为就显得格外重要。本文以2004-2009年历次增值税转型政策作为准自然实验的出发点,采用多期倍差法系统考察了减税对企业创新的影响及其机制。首先从理论角度梳理了从企业研发投入和创新产出两个层面对企业创新产生影响的路径,然后从市场需求和工资水平这两个渠道来系统分析增值税转型改革对企业创新的影响机制。其次,结合两大数据库1999-2008年的相关数据来分析增值税转型对企业创新行为的影响。同时,本文也将企业类别、总资产规模和外部市场环境纳入整个分析框架,更为细致地研究“增值税转型改革”政策给企业的创新行为带来的差异性。最后,本文更进一步加入生存分析方法来系统分析减税对企业创新活动的持续性影响。研究发现,增值税转型改革显著提升了企业的创新能力,其促进作用在大型企业、东部地区和法制环境较好地区的企业更为明显,并且研究表明增值税转型改革对不同地区的企业创新行为具有动态性。进一步本文利用生存分析方法检验还发现,减税在总体上延长了企业的创新持续时间。不同于以往学者的研究,本文可能在如下几个视角存在贡献之处:第一,理论视角层面。本文主要是利用渐次推进的“增值税转型改革”政策来研究其给企业经营行为带来的影响,结合微观层面数据加以印证,提供了减税政策为宏观经济带来好处的一个基本事实,给一些研究企业行为的有关文献提供一个基于财税政策层面的研究思路,在一定程度上丰富和拓展了减税政策在经济效应方面的文献。第二,视角层面。本研究从“增值税转型改革”入手,将历次政策带来的创新效应与企业所处的外部市场环境纳入统一分析架构,更为全面地研究“增值税转型改革”政策给企业创新行为带来的迥异性,期许为国家提供一些切实的证据进行结构性改革,进而在“降低企业成本”方面取得更为理想的效果。第三,方法层面。首先,本研究以历次“增值税转型改革”政策作为准自然实验,采用多期倍差法系统考察增值税转型改革对企业创新行为的因果效应,将提高研究结论的可靠性,使我们可以更为准确地评估减税对企业创新行为的微观影响;其次,进一步利用生存分析方法考察“增值税转型改革”对企业创新持续时间的影响,来丰富企业动态效应方面的研究。根据本文的研究分析,从政府、企业和人才等角度出发,以促进企业创新创业为导向,提出具体政策建议,实现国家创新水平的增长。从行动上刺激企业和工人的生产积极性来增加商品产量,实现企业营收,进而实现稳定现有就业,积极增加新的就业,促进失业人员再就业等问题。全力保障经济发展动力由“要素驱动”顺利转变为“创新驱动”的经济转型,达到促进经济发展的目的。同时,本文的研究结果和相关政策建议对确切落实给企业减负、融入延绵不断的企业动力提供了一定的参考意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the core element of sustainable development of enterprises,innovation is related to social and economic development“ Innovation means development,and innovation means the future." This is a sentence familiar to every participant in our society.As the primary driving force of leading economic development,innovation factors are more related to the level of economic development of a country.The lack of innovation in a country is like the lack of soul in the human body,and the lack of innovation in enterprises is like the lack of equipment and motor,And modern China is still the largest developing country in the world,mainly because the pace of our scientific and technological revolution is still relatively backward.To this end,as early as 2016,the CPC Central Committee proposed to strive to achieve the strategic goal of rejuvenating the country through science and education and strengthening the country with talents,which pointed out a clear road for China’s enterprise and social development.An enterprise without innovation will lose its vitality,its way out and its core competitiveness.Since enterprises are the vitality and driving force of social development,studying the behavior of enterprises in the market is to study the development direction of market economy,and innovation is not only the core of an enterprise,but also an important strategic goal of China’s innovation driven development path.Therefore,it is particularly important to focus on studying policies to promote enterprises’ innovation and entrepreneurship.Based on the previous VAT transformation policies from 2004 to 2009 as the starting point of quasi natural experiment,this paper uses the multi period multiple difference method to systematically investigate the impact of tax reduction on enterprise innovation and its mechanism.First of all,this paper combs the path of the impact of enterprise innovation from two aspects of R & D input and innovation output from a theoretical perspective,and then systematically analyzes the impact mechanism of VAT transformation reform on enterprise innovation from two channels of market demand and wage level.Secondly,combined with the relevant data of the two databases from 1999 to 2008,this paper analyzes the impact of VAT transformation on enterprise innovation behavior.At the same time,this paper also takes the enterprise category,total asset size and external market environment into the whole analysis framework to study the differences of innovation behavior brought by the "VAT transformation reform" policy in more detail.Finally,this paper further adds the survival analysis method to systematically analyze the impact of tax reduction on the sustainability of enterprise innovation activities.It is found that the transformation of value-added tax significantly improves the innovation ability of enterprises,especially in large enterprises,eastern regions and regions with better legal environment.The research shows that the transformation of value-added tax has dynamic effect on the innovation behavior of enterprises in different regions.Furthermore,we use the survival analysis method to test and find that tax cuts extend the innovation duration of enterprises on the whole.Different from previous studies,this paper may contribute in the following perspectives:First,the theoretical perspective.This paper mainly uses the gradual promotion of the "value-added tax transformation reform" policy to study its impact on business behavior,combined with micro level data to confirm,provides a basic fact that the tax reduction policy brings benefits to the macro economy,and provides a research idea based on the fiscal and tax policy level for some relevant literature on business behavior,To a certain extent,it enriches and expands the literature on the economic effect of tax reduction policy.Second,the perspective level.Starting from the "value-added tax transformation reform",this study integrates the innovation effect brought by previous policies and the external market environment of enterprises into a unified analysis framework,and makes a more comprehensive study of the differences brought by the "value-added tax transformation reform" policy to the innovation behavior of enterprises,hoping to provide some practical evidence for the country to carry out structural reform,And then achieve more ideal results in "reducing enterprise costs".Third,the method level.First of all,this study takes the previous "value-added tax transformation reform" policy as a quasi natural experiment,and uses the multi period multiple difference method to systematically investigate the causal effect of valueadded tax transformation reform on enterprise innovation behavior,which will improve the reliability of the research conclusion,and enable us to more accurately evaluate the micro impact of tax reduction on enterprise innovation behavior;Secondly,we further use the survival analysis method to investigate the impact of "value-added tax transformation reform" on enterprise innovation duration,so as to enrich the research on enterprise dynamic effect.According to the research and analysis of this paper,from the perspective of the government,enterprises and talents,to promote enterprise innovation and entrepreneurship as the guidance,put forward specific policy suggestions,to achieve the growth of national innovation level.From the action to stimulate the enthusiasm of enterprises and workers to increase commodity production,realize enterprise revenue,and then realize the stability of existing employment,actively increase new employment,promote the reemployment of the unemployed.Make every effort to ensure the smooth transformation of the driving force of economic development from "factor driven" to "innovation driven",so as to achieve the purpose of promoting economic development.At the same time,the research results and relevant policy recommendations provide a certain reference for enterprises to reduce the burden and integrate into the continuous enterprise power.更多还原