【作者】 王涛；

【导师】 陈怡安；

【作者基本信息】 西南政法大学 ， 税务（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【副题名】基于2019年增值税税率下调的实证研究

【摘要】 2019年4月1日起,我国实施了新一轮的增值税基本税率下调政策,这是继2018年下调以来的又一次下调。基本税率16%一档降至13%、10%一档降至9%。在大规模的增值税减税政策实施后,一方面,激发了市场经济的活力,另一方面降低了企业的增值税税负。这有效的促进了企业的发展,帮助企业提高了经营绩效。但是,不同企业之间的减税“获得感”存在差异较大的现象,有的企业经营绩效提升明显,而有的企业经营绩效则几乎没有改变。基于此,本文将增值税减税政策、企业的议价能力与经营绩效放置于同一框架下,使用规范研究与实证研究来探究它们之间的关系。首先,通过文献综述了解学者们对增值税减税政策、企业的议价能力与经营绩效相关领域的研究现状,以及主要采取的研究方式,以在他们的研究成果之上进一步研究。其次,梳理相关的理论基础,如拉弗曲线理论、乘数理论、税负转嫁理论及讨价还价理论等,为研究打下理论基础。再次,分析增值税税率下调、企业议价能力对企业绩效的影响机制,找出企业在增值税税率下调政策实施后,不同企业获得的减税红利存在差异的原因,并据此提出研究假设。然后,在实证分析方面。本文基于沪深A股1665家上市公司2018年第二季度至2019年第四季度的面板数据,构建双重差分模型,将受到增值税税率下调影响的企业设为实验组,未受到政策影响的企业设为对照组,以此进行实证分析,对研究假设进行检验。研究的主要结论如下:第一,增值税税率下调的减税政策使企业的经营绩效有了显著的提高;第二,企业对经销商和供应商的议价能力与企业的绩效呈现出显著的正相关;第三,企业对经销商的议价能力加强了增值税税率下调政策对企业绩效的影响,即企业对经销商的议价能力越强,增值税税率下调的减税政策实施后,其绩效提升更大;第四,企业对供应商的议价能力未显著加强增值税税率下调政策对企业绩效的影响;第五,在进一步的研究中发现,国有企业对经销商与供应商的议价能力,均未加强增值税税率下调政策对企业绩效的提升效果。但是,在非国有企业中,企业对经销商与供应商的议价能力均加强了增值税税率下调政策对企业绩效的提升效果。最后,基于研究发现,分别为政府和企业提出了一些针对性的建议,对政府而言:第一,可以进一步考虑增值税税率下调,以提升企业的绩效,进而带动我国经济的发展;第二,注意相关政策的配套使用,保障弱势地位的企业也能享受到政策红利。对于企业而言:第一,增强对下游客户的讨价还价能力,以增加销售收入;第二,增强对上游供应商的讨价还价能力,以控制企业的采购成本;第三,合理签订合约,以增强企业在合约方面的议价能力;第四,根据政策做好合理的规划,以谋求企业利益的最大化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since April 1,2019,China has implemented a new round of VAT basic tax rate reduction policy,which is another reduction since 2018.The basic tax rate will be reduced from 16% to 13% and from 10% to 9%.After the implementation of the large-scale VAT reduction policy,on the one hand,it stimulates the vitality of the market economy,on the other hand,it reduces the VAT burden of enterprises.This effectively promotes the development of enterprises,and helps enterprises to improve business performance.However,there is a big difference in the "sense of acquisition" of tax reduction among different enterprises.Some enterprises’ operating performance has improved significantly,while some enterprises’ operating performance has hardly changed.Based on this,this paper puts value-added tax reduction policy,bargaining power and business performance under the same framework,and uses normative research and empirical research to explore the relationship between them.First of all,through literature review to understand the scholars’ research status of VAT tax reduction policy,bargaining power and business performance,as well as the main research methods,in order to further study on their research results.Secondly,combing the relevant theoretical basis,such as Laffer curve theory,multiplier theory,tax shifting theory and bargaining theory,to lay a theoretical foundation for the research.Thirdly,it analyzes the impact mechanism of VAT rate reduction and bargaining power on enterprise performance,finds out the reasons why different enterprises get different tax dividends after the implementation of VAT rate reduction policy,and puts forward research hypotheses accordingly.Then,in the aspect of empirical analysis.Based on the panel data of 1665 A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from the second quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019,this paper constructs a double difference model,and sets the enterprises affected by the VAT rate reduction as the experimental group,and the enterprises not affected by the policy as the control group,so as to conduct empirical analysis and test the research hypothesis.The main conclusions of the study are as follows: first,the tax reduction policy of VAT rate reduction has significantly improved the business performance of enterprises;second,there is a significant positive correlation between the bargaining power of enterprises to dealers and suppliers and the performance of enterprises;third,the bargaining power of enterprises to dealers strengthens the impact of VAT rate reduction policy on the performance of enterprises,that is,the bargaining power of enterprises to dealers The stronger the bargaining power of dealers,the greater the performance improvement after the implementation of VAT rate reduction policy;fourth,the bargaining power of enterprises to suppliers does not significantly strengthen the impact of VAT rate reduction policy on enterprise performance;fifth,in further research,it is found that the bargaining power of state-owned enterprises to dealers and suppliers does not strengthen the VAT rate reduction policy The promotion effect of policy on enterprise performance.However,in non-state-owned enterprises,the bargaining power of enterprises to dealers and suppliers strengthens the effect of VAT rate reduction policy on enterprise performance.Finally,based on the research findings,this paper puts forward some targeted suggestions for the government and enterprises.For the government,firstly,we can further consider the reduction of VAT rate to improve the performance of enterprises and promote the development of China’s economy;secondly,we should pay attention to the supporting use of relevant policies to ensure that enterprises in a weak position can also enjoy the policy dividend.For enterprises: first,enhance the bargaining power of downstream customers to increase sales revenue;second,enhance the bargaining power of upstream suppliers to control the purchase cost of enterprises;third,sign contracts reasonably to enhance the bargaining power of enterprises in terms of contracts;fourth,make reasonable planning according to policies to maximize the interests of enterprises.更多还原