【作者】 李琪；

【导师】 尤天慧；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 关于报童模型的研究是供应链管理中的重要课题之一,自从报童模型被提出以来,一直受到学者们的广泛关注,对于与报童模型相关问题的拓展研究也非常丰富。经典的报童模型认为零售商是完全理性的,然而现实生活中零售商获得的信息往往是有限的,其在销售期内无法进行完全理性的决策。此外,在现实中,销售季节内温度的变化往往能影响消费者的购买决策,进而影响温度敏感型商品的市场需求。例如,2004年欧洲夏季温度偏低,吉百利公司饮料销量明显下降;2005年大多数地区温度普遍低于正常水平,沃尔玛的库存积压明显增加;2006年美国东北地区温度偏高,保暖商品的销量严重下降;此外,历史数据还显示,冬季保暖衣物销售量与冬季平均温度的相关度达到91%。因此,针对温度敏感型商品的决策中,销售季内的平均温度是不可忽视的重要问题。基于此,本文在传统报童模型的基础上,考虑了损失规避行为对温度敏感型商品零售商决策的影响,并着重研究了考虑温度敏感型需求的损失规避报童问题中的定价、订货以及广告投入问题。本文主要完成了以下几个方面的研究工作。(1)给出针对温度敏感型商品的需求函数。本文提出了一个新的刻画商品需求受价格和温度两方面因素影响的需求函数,并进行了需求函数分析。(2)构建考虑温度敏感型需求的损失规避报童定价与订货联合决策模型。本文提出了考虑温度敏感型需求的损失规避报童定价与订货联合决策问题,构建了定价与订货联合决策模型,并给出了模型的求解方法,最后对模型进行了数值分析及参数分析。(3)构建考虑温度敏感型需求的损失规避报童定价、订货与广告联合决策模型。本文提出了考虑温度敏感型需求的损失规避报童定价、订货与广告联合决策问题,构建了相应的定价、订货与广告联合决策模型,并给出了模型的求解方法,最后对模型进行了数值分析及参数分析。最后,总结了本文的主要研究成果和结论、主要贡献和研究局限,并对进一步需要开展的研究工作做了阐述。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research on the newsvendor model is one of the most important topics in supply chain management.Since the newsboy model has been put forward,it has been widely concerned by scholars,and has extensive research on the related problems of newsboy model.The classic newsvendor model considers the retailer to be completely rational.However,retailers in real life often have limited information and can not make a rational decision during the sales period.In addition,in reality,changes in temperature within the selling season can often affect consumer purchasing decisions,thus affecting the market demand for temperature-sensitive goods.For example,the European summer temperature is low in 2004,and the Cadbury beverages sales decreased;The temperature is lower than the normal level generally in most regions in 2005,and the Wal-Mart’s inventory increased significantly;The increase of the temperature in northeastern United States lead to the severe thermal product sales decline in 2006;In addition,historical data also show that warm winter was related to the clothing sales and the affinity is 91%.Therefore,for temperature-sensitive goods in the decision-making,the average temperature in sales season is an important issue that can not be ignored.Based on the traditional newsvendor model,this paper considers the effect of loss avoidance behavior on the decision of retailer who sales the temperature sensitive goods,and focuses on the pricing,ordering and advertising input of the loss-averse newsvendor that considering temperature-sensitive goods’ demand.This paper mainly completed the following several aspects of research work.(1)Give the demand function for temperature-sensitive goods.This paper presents a new demand function which depicts the demand of goods affected by both price and temperature,and the demand function is analyzed.(2)Constructing a joint decision model of loss-averse newsvendor on pricing and ordering considering temperature-sensitive demand.In this paper,we propose a joint decision-making problem for pricing and ordering of loss-averse newsvendors with temperature-sensitive demand,and construct a joint decision-making model for pricing and ordering.Finally,the model is solved and analyzed numerically.(3)Constructing a joint decision model of loss avoidance newsvendor on pricing,order and advertising considering temperature-sensitive demand.In this paper,we propose a joint decision-making problem for pricing,ordering and advertising of loss-averse newsvendors with temperature-sensitive demand,and construct a joint decision-making model for pricing,ordering and advertising.Finally,the model is solved and analyzed numerically.Finally,the paper summarizes the main research results and conclusions,the main contributions and limitations of this paper,and the further research work is described.更多还原