【作者】 陈鑫；

【导师】 卫迎春；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 国际商务， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 当今世界经济正处于深度调整的时代,应对贸易保护主义抬头和经济下行的压力,内外贸协同发展可以使企业合理应对外部环境的不确定性,增强企业抵抗风险的能力,扩大市场的同时增加企业利润,有效促进一国经济平稳发展。义乌市位于浙江,内外贸改革经验丰富,有明显的区位优势和经济基础,研究其内外贸协同发展,对于浙江乃至全国都有重要且独特的意义。本文以义乌市内外贸发展为研究对象,探讨义乌市内外贸协调度及动态影响。首先,深入探讨了内外贸协同发展的理论机制。其次,对义乌市内外贸协同发展的推进过程进行了详实的整理,并对义乌内外贸现状进行微观分析。然后,选取了1998-2018年义乌的贸易数据,利用耦合协调度模型评估了义乌内外贸发展的耦合协调度,对义乌市进出口总额与义乌市社会消费品零售总额的相关性作实证分析,并通过VAR模型分析义乌市内外贸的动态影响。实证研究显示:义乌内外贸协调发展;义乌市内贸与外贸存在长期协整关系;内贸对于外贸的影响作用显著,义乌市内贸额每增加一个百分点,义乌外贸额就增长3.67个百分点,反之义乌外贸每增加一个百分点,义乌内贸就增长0.27个百分点。义乌市出口和进口对义乌内贸的影响是长期的,且出口的影响大于进口,内贸与出口动态影响效果显著。上述结论表明,义乌市内贸对外贸起到了较好的促进作用,出口反哺内贸。本文分析了内外贸协同发展的理论机制,并结合义乌内外贸发展现实情况,通过实证检验了义乌市内外贸协同发展的动态影响,为促进其他地区内外贸协同发展提供了方法与思路,有一定的理论和现实指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The world economy is in the midst of the depth adjustment time.To cope with trade rising protectionism and economic downward pressure,the coordinated development of foreign trade can help the enterprise deal with the uncertainty of external environment reasonably,enhance the ability to resist risk,expand markets and increase the profits,effectively promote the development of a country’s economy smoothly.Yiwu is located in Zhejiang with rich experience in domestice and foreign trade reform,and it has obvious geographical advantages and historical factors.It is of great significance for Zhejiang and the whole country to study the coordinated development of domestic and foreign trade in Yiwu.This paper takes the development of foreign trade in Yiwu as the research object,and discusses its coordination degree and the dynamic effect of coordinated development of domestic and foreign trade.First of all,this paper probes into the theoretical mechanism.Secondly,making detailed analysis of the process of promoting the coordinated development of domestic and foreign trade in Yiwu city,and microscopic analysis of the present situation of the development of domestic and foreign trade in Yiwu.Thirdly,This paper selects the trade data of Yiwu from 1998 to 2018,evaluates the coupling coordination degree of the development of Yiwu’s internal foreign trade by using the coupling coordination degree model,makes an empirical analysis on the correlation between the total import and export of Yiwu and the total retail sales of consumer goods in Yiwu.This paper also analyzes the dynamic influence of Yiwu’s internal foreign trade through VAR model.The empirical study shows that the coordination degree of Yiwu’s domestic and foreign trade is good.The effect of domestic trade on foreign trade is significant.For every percentage point increase in domestic trade,foreign trade increased by 3.67 percentage points,whereas for every percentage point increase in Yiwu’s foreign trade,Yiwu’s domestic trade increased by 0.27 percentage points.The influence of export and import on domestic trade of Yiwu city is long-term,and the influence of export is greater than that of import.The above conclusions show that the domestic trade in Yiwu has played a good role in promoting the foreign trade and the export supports the domestic trade.This paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism,and combines the situation of the development of domestic and foreign trade in yiwu.Testing the dynamic influence of the coordinated domestic and foreign trade in yiwu by empirical analysis.And provides methods for promoting the coordinated development of domestic and foreign trade in other regions,which has theoretical and practical guiding meaning.更多还原