【作者】 张进；

【导师】 李强；

【作者基本信息】 电子科技大学 ， 工商管理硕士（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 随着市场经济的高速发展,中国农业生产出现了根本性的改变。农户作为农业生产的中坚力量,愈来愈多地开始使用银行贷款来进行生产经营。然而,我国农村金融体系尚不健全,存在信贷供给不充分和信贷数据缺乏等问题,如何进行科学的农户信用质量评估,成为了农村信贷机构提高农户信贷可得性和践行普惠金融的重点与难点。特别地,各农村商业银行的经营范围具有一定的区域性,所处区域的经济、文化环境,以及农户的个人或家庭特征等,都是农户贷款违约风险的重要影响因素,但数据所限,现有研究尚缺乏关于农户贷款违约风险的经验证据。本文在介绍研究背景和引出研究问题的基础上,首先分析了WY农商行在农户贷款违约风险管控中的现状与问题,其次以WY农商行2017～2019年的农户贷款为样本,将农户违约的影响因素分为四大类共16个指标,利用Logit和Tobit回归模型,实证考察农户贷款违约风险的影响因素,并对其成因进行经济分析,最后提出农村商业银行发展农户贷款的对策与建议。研究结果表明:WY农商行的农户贷款业务总体情况较好,但在保证类贷款的违约风险比较集中;进一步,就农户个人或家庭特征对违约概率的影响来看,农户年龄越大、家庭人口数越多、社会资本变化状况越频繁,其违约概率越高;学历和婚姻状况对违约概率并无显著影响;此外,贷款利率、贷款期限,与农户违约概率成正相关关系。从农户贷款逾期天数的影响因素来看,家庭人口数越多、非信用村、有逾期记录的农户,以及贷款利率越高、贷款期限越长、资金用途为养殖的农户贷款的逾期天数越长。研究结论为农村信贷机构面向三农践行普惠金融和服务乡村振兴国家战略提供了重要的经验证据与决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of market economy,China’s agricultural production has undergone fundamental changes.Farmers as the backbone of agricultural production,more and more began to use bank loans for production and management.However,China’s rural financial system is still not sound,there are insufficient credit supply and lack of credit data and other problems,how to carry out a scientific evaluation of farmers’ credit quality,become the rural credit institutions to improve the availability of farmers’ credit and practice inclusive finance focus and difficulty.In particular,the operation scope of each rural commercial bank is regional to a certain extent.The economic and cultural environment of the region as well as the personal or family characteristics of farmers are important factors affecting farmers’ default risk.However,due to the limitations of data,the existing research lacks empirical evidence on farmers’ default risk.On the basis of introducing the research background and leading out the research problems,this thesis firstly analyzes the current situation and problems of WY rural commercial bank in the risk control of farmers’ loan default.Secondly,using a sample of the farmers’ loans made by WY rural commercial bank from 2017 to 2019,the influencing factors of farmers’ default are divided into four categories,a total of 16 indicators,using Logit and Tobit regression models,this thesis empirically investigates the determinants of default risk of farmers’ loans,makes an economic analysis of its causes,and finally puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for rural commercial banks to develop loans to farmers.The results show that the overall situation of loans made to farmers by WY bank is good,but the default risk is concentrated in guaranteed loans.From the perspective of the impact of individual or family characteristics of farmers on default probability,we find that the older the farmers,the larger the family size,and the more frequent the social capital changes,the higher the probability of default.Educational background and marital status have no significant influence on default probability.In addition,the interest rate and duration of farmers’ loan are positively correlated with default probability.From the determinants of the overdue days of farmers’ loans,the more members of the household,non-credit villages,farmers with overdue records,and the higher the interest rate,the longer the loan duration,the loans used for the purpose of breeding,the longer the overdue days of farmers’ loans.The conclusions provide insightful empirical evidence and decision-making reference for rural credit institutions to implement inclusive finance in the field of agriculture,rural areas and farmers and to serve the national strategy of rural revitalization.更多还原