【作者】 张金华；

【导师】 郑江淮；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 产业经济学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 2017年十九大报告中提出了要全面实施区域协同发展战略,率先实现东部地区优化发展。2019年长三角区域一体化发展也正式上升为国家战略。如何推动长三角地区一体化发展和高质量发展成为经济学研究中绕不开的话题。产业协同发展将会是推动长三角高质量一体化的重要突破口。本文以长三角地区产业协同发展为研究主题正当其时。对此,本文系统梳理了现有相关的研究文献,选择采用以“协同”为核心思想的协同学理论作为本文对长三角地区产业协同发展研究的基础理论。并采用协同学中广泛应用的哈肯模型作为协同水平的测度方法。本文首先从现有文献中梳理出区域要素禀赋、区域产业分工和区域产业集聚是长三角地区产业协同发展的主要影响因素,为后续的哈肯模型搭建理论框架。其次运用哈肯模型对长三角地区2009-2018年整体及41个城市的产业协同发展水平进行测度。再次采用面板固定效应、差分GMM、交互效应和门槛效应等方法研究了各个影响因素与产业协同水平之间的线性和非线性关系。最后实证分析了区域产业协同水平的产业结构升级效应和技术进步效应。并提出了长三角地区产业协同发展的政策建议。本文得出以下主要结论:一是长三角地区产业协同发展整体处于初级阶段,产业分工是其发展的最主要影响因素。区域要素禀赋、区域产业分工水平、区域产业集聚水平、区域基础设施水平、经济服务化倾向、城镇化率和人口净流入率等因素都是区域产业协同发展的重要影响因素,但区域产业分工是其中的序参量,即最主要的影响因素。二是要素禀赋和产业集聚与区域产业协同发展水平之间存在非线性关系。一方面,区域要素禀赋及其细分的劳动禀赋、资本禀赋、制度禀赋和区域产业集聚及其整体层面上的产业集聚——空间基尼系数,都会显著促进区域产业协同水平的发展,但促进效应会随着经济发展水平的提高而不断减弱。而要素禀赋中的自然禀赋对产业协同发展的促进效应并不会随经济发展水平的提高而改变。另一方面,制造业与生产性服务业之间的协同集聚在受到经济发展水平和城市规模等其他因素影响时,对区域产业协同发展水平也存在非线性影响。随着经济发展水平的提高,产业协同集聚与区域产业协同发展之间呈倒U型关系。受城市规模扩大影响,产业协同集聚和产业协同发展之间呈倒N型关系。三是区域产业协同发展对产业结构升级和技术进步都存在影响。一方面,随着市场化水平的提高,产业协同水平与产业结构升级之间存在倒U型关系。另一方面区域产业协同发展对TFP的促进主要来自对技术进步变动的促进。区域产业协同水平的提高对区域的TFP和技术进步变动之间均存在正向促进效应,而且这种促进的边际效应呈递增趋势。TFP和技术进步变动的促进效应均存在一定时期的“惯性”,并且技术进步变动的“惯性”持续的时间长于TFP的“惯性”时间,说明技术进步的促进作用更加持久深远。而区域产业协同水平与区域技术效率变动之间不存在显著地线性或非线性关系。基于以上结论,本文认为长三角地区产业协同发展要从构建推动产业协同的要素机制、分工机制和集聚机制三个方面入手。一是优化要素配置,着力构建产业协同的要素机制。二是促进产业分工,着力构建产业协同的分工机制。三是提升产业集群,着力构建产业协同的集聚机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in2017,it is proposed to comprehensively implement the regional coordinated development strategy and take the lead in realizing the optimized development of the eastern region.In 2019,the development of regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta will officially become a national strategy.So how to promote the integration and high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta has become an unavoidable topic in economic research.The coordinated development of industries will be an important breakthrough to promote the high-quality integration of the Yangtze River Delta.It is time for this paper to take the coordinated development of industries in the Yangtze River Delta as the research topic.In this regard,this paper systematically combs the existing relevant research literature,and chooses the synergetic theory with "synergy" as the core idea as the basic theory of the level of industrial collaborative development in the Yangtze River Delta.And we use the Haken Model which is widely used in synergetics to measure the level of synergy.In this paper,we first sort out from the existing literature that regional factor endowment,regional industrial division and regional industrial agglomeration are the main influencing factors of industrial collaborative development in the Yangtze River Delta,and build a theoretical framework for the subsequent Haken Model.Secondly,this paper uses Haken Model to measure the industrial collaborative development level of the whole Yangtze River Delta and 41 cities from 2009 to 2018.Thirdly,using panel fixed effect,differential GMM,interaction effect and threshold effect to study the linear and nonlinear relationship between each influencing factor and the level of industrial collaboration.Finally,the paper empirically analyzes the industrial structure upgrading effect and technological progress effect of Regional Industrial Synergy level.Finally,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the coordinated development of industries in the Yangtze River Delta.The main conclusions are as followsFirstly,the coordinated development of industries in the Yangtze River Delta is in the primary stage,and the division of labor is the most important factor.The regional factor endowment,the level of regional industrial division,the level of regional industrial agglomeration,the level of regional infrastructure,the tendency of economic service,the rate of urbanization and the net inflow rate of population are all important factors affecting the coordinated development of regional industry,but the regional industrial division is the order parameter affecting the coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta,that is,the most important factor.Second,there is a nonlinear relationship between factor endowment,industrial agglomeration and the level of regional industrial collaborative development.On the one hand,regional factor endowments,labor endowments,capital endowments,institutional endowments,regional industrial agglomeration and industrial agglomeration on the whole will significantly promote the development of Regional Industrial Synergy level,but the promotion effect will continue to weaken with the improvement of economic development level.However,the promotion effect of natural endowment on industrial collaborative development will not change with the improvement of economic development level.On the other hand,the collaborative agglomeration between manufacturing industry and producer services industry is also affected by other factors such as economic development level and city size,which has a nonlinear impact on the level of regional industrial collaborative development.With the improvement of the level of economic development,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between industrial collaborative agglomeration and regional industrial collaborative development.Affected by the expansion of city scale,there is an inverted n-type relationship between industrial collaborative agglomeration and industrial collaborative development.Third,the coordinated development of regional industries has an impact on the upgrading of industrial structure and technological progress.On the one hand,with the improvement of the level of marketization,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of industrial collaboration and the upgrading of industrial structure.On the other hand,the coordinated development of regional industries promotes TFP mainly from the change of technological progress.The improvement of the level of Urban Industrial Synergy and the changes of urban TFP and technological progress have positive promotion effect,and the marginal effect of this promotion is increasing.There is a certain period of "inertia" in the promotion effect of urban TFP and technological progress change,and the "inertia" of technological progress change lasts longer than the "inertia" of TFP,and the promotion effect of technological progress is more lasting and far-reaching.However,there is no significant linear or non-linear relationship between the level of Urban Industrial Synergy and the change of urban technical efficiency.Based on the above conclusions,this paper thinks that the coordinated development of industry in Yangtze River Delta region should start from three aspects:the construction of factor mechanism,the division of labor mechanism and the agglomeration mechanism.The first is to optimize the allocation of factors and strive to build the factor mechanism of industrial collaboration.The second is to promote the industrial division of labor,and strive to build a division mechanism of industrial collaboration.The third is to improve the industrial cluster,and focus on building the agglomeration mechanism of industrial collaboration.更多还原