【作者】 赵鹏；

【导师】 孙丽文；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 应用经济学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放四十年来,经济增长过度依赖于碳基能源这一问题始终是中国经济可持续发展的重大阻碍。碳基能源消费所引致的“碳锁定”问题,造成了气候变暖、雾霾天气频发等问题,严重阻碍了中国经济低碳转型的步伐。而作为能源消费的主力,中国工业发展加剧了经济结构的重型化,导致其对化石能源消费的路径依赖,由此造成了大量CO₂排放,加剧了中国工业碳锁定程度。为了抑制碳排放量增加、工业碳锁定问题持续加剧等问题,2013年,国家发改委批准在北京、天津、上海、重庆、湖北、广东以及深圳等地开展碳排放权交易试点,参与这些地区碳排放权交易的主体绝大部分为工业企业,该类企业在过去几十年一直存在高污染现象。碳排放权交易实施以来,试点地区工业碳锁定状况是否存在明显变化,是关乎碳排放权交易实施效果的重要评价标准。因此,本文在探究中国工业部门碳锁定现状及空间溢出效应的基础上,采用实证方法检验中国碳排放权交易实施的有效性,具有重大现实意义。基于以上分析,本文首先梳理了碳锁定和碳排放权交易研究文献,并探究了碳锁定形成机理以及碳排放权交易驱动碳解锁机理,然后从时间和空间角度分别对中国工业碳锁定现状进行分析,并利用空间计量方法检验中国工业碳锁定的空间溢出效应,利用双重差分方法检验碳排放权交易对中国工业碳锁定的影响效应。研究结果表明,沿海地区的工业碳锁定程度要远远高于内陆地区;经济增长会使得工业碳锁定程度逐步加深,验证了中国所处的高能耗环境带来的不利影响,也说明中国经济发展增长与环境的关系未达到EKC曲线拐点;交通运输是导致工业碳锁定进一步加深的重要因素;环境规制、外商投资、创新能力可以抑制工业碳锁定程度的加深;二产比例的变动对工业碳锁定的影响并不显著,但第二产业是造成工业碳锁定的重要推手,二产比例变动对工业碳锁定程度变化缺乏弹性,使得碳锁定问题既不易加深,也不易减轻;碳排放权交易不仅能够降低本地区工业碳锁定程度,而且可以降低其邻近地区工业碳锁定程度,故实施碳排放权交易有利于实现地区工业碳解锁。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,the problem that economic growth is excessively dependent on carbon based energy has always been a major obstacle to the sustainable development of China’s economy.The problem of "carbon lock-in" caused by carbon based energy consumption has resulted in climate warming,frequent haze and other problems,which has seriously hindered the pace of low-carbon transformation of China’s economy.As the main force of energy consumption,China’s industrial development intensifies the heavy-duty economic structure,leading to the path dependence on fossil energy consumption,resulting in a large number of CO2 emissions,and increasing the degree of industrial carbon lock-in.In 2013,the national development and Reform Commission approved carbon emission trading pilots in Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Chongqing,Hubei,Guangdong,Shenzhen and other places in order to curb the increase of carbon emissions and the increasing problem of industrial carbon lock-in.Most of the participants in carbon emission trading in these areas are industrial enterprises,which have been experiencing high pollution in the past decades.Since the implementation of carbon emission trading,whether the industrial carbon lock-in situation in the pilot area has changed significantly is an important evaluation standard related to the implementation effect of carbon emission trading.Therefore,on the basis of exploring the current situation of carbon lock-in in China’s industrial sector,this paper uses empirical methods to test the effectiveness of carbon emission trading in China,which is of great practical significance.Based on the above analysis,this paper first combs the research literature of carbon locking and carbon emission trading,and explores the formation mechanism of carbon locking and the mechanism of carbon unlocking driven by carbon emission trading,then analyzes the current situation of industrial carbon locking in China from the perspective of time and space,and uses the spatial measurement method to empirically test the spatial spillover effect of industrial carbon locking in China,using the double Heavy difference method is used to test the effect of carbon emission trading on industrial carbon lock-in in China.The results show that the degree of industrial carbon lock-in in coastal areas is much higher than that in inland areas;economic growth and transportation are the important factors that lead to the further deepening of industrial carbon lock-in;environmental regulation,foreign investment and innovation ability can inhibit the deepening of industrial carbon lockin,and the change of the proportion of secondary production has no significant impact on industrial carbon lock-in;carbon emission trading not only can It can reduce the degree of industrial carbon lock-in in the region,and can also reduce the degree of industrial carbon lock-in in its adjacent areas,so the implementation of carbon emission trading is conducive to the realization of regional industrial carbon unlocking.更多还原