【作者】 李鑫；

【导师】 戴维迪； 马志华；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 计算机技术， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 当前我国城市化建设飞速发展,城市的规模和数量在不断膨胀。对城市风险体系的研究不仅要考虑致灾因子和其暴露性程度,还要考虑城市社会环境中的脆弱性因素。特别是面向人群的公共卫生事件会对社会群体构成很大的风险,迫切需要开展针对公共卫生事件的社会脆弱性相关研究。本文针对城市尺度来评估公共卫生社会脆弱性,以达到在公共卫生事件发生时能够认识规律,并为降灾减害决策提供参考的目的,开展了以下工作。首先,构建了城市尺度公共卫生社会脆弱性本体模型。该本体模型基于城市本体,定义了城市风险本体中的社会脆弱性本体和涉及公共卫生领域的城市相关实体及社会脆弱性相关实体的定义,且明确了这些实体之间的关联关系,该本体模型能较准确地描述城市尺度公共卫生社会脆弱性所涉及到的因素并能够确定相关指标。其次,探讨了城市尺度公共卫生社会脆弱性计算方法。该方法基于城市尺度公共卫生社会脆弱性本体模型选取社会脆弱性指标,对选取的指标筛查和降维处理得到与社会脆弱性指数关联性强的主因子,通过对主因子进行带权运算得出量化的城市公共卫生社会脆弱性指数。最后,利用COVID-19疫情数据对上述城市尺度公共卫生社会脆弱性本体模型和计算方法进行实证。根据COVID-19疫情数据特征和其实际影响情况,计算了中国293个地级城市的公共卫生社会脆弱性指数,该指数主要受公路运输能力,城市化建设和人口密集程度等因素影响,可为城市公共卫生社会脆弱性的管理提供参考依据。综上,论文从评估社会脆弱性的角度来分析公共卫生事件会对城市造成的影响。结合COVID-19疫情实际情况,计算出中国293个地级城市的公共卫生社会脆弱性指数,验证了论文提出的公共卫生社会脆弱性指数可以为城市公共卫生事件管理的相关决策提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays,with the rapid development of urbanization construction,the number of cities is constantly increasing.The study of urban risk system should consider the risky factors,the extent of exposure,and the vulnerability factors in the urban social environment.In particular,population-oriented public health events pose a great risk to social groups.Thus,there is an urgent need to conduct research on social vulnerability of public health events.In this paper,we assess the social vulnerability of public health based on the urban scale,so as to recognize the rule when public health events occur and to provide reference for disaster reduction decisions.The following work is carried out.Firstly,we construct the ontological model of social vulnerability in urban public health.The model based on the city ontology defines the social vulnerability ontology in the city risk ontology,city-related entities involved in the public health field,and social vulnerability-related entities.Meantime,the model clarifies the relationship between these entities.The ontology model can accurately describe the urban scale factors and the related indicators involved in the public health social vulnerability.Secondly,we discuss the calculation method of social vulnerability in urban public health.This method selects social vulnerability indicators based on the urban scale public health social vulnerability ontology model.Then,the method screens and reduces the dimension of the selected indicators to obtain the main factors that are strongly correlated with the social vulnerability index.After that,we acquire the quantified urban public health social vulnerability index through the weighted operation of the main factors.Finally,we use the COVID-19 epidemic data to demonstrate the urban scale public health social vulnerability ontology model and calculation process.According to the features of COVID-19 epidemic data and its actual effect,we calculate the public health social vulnerability index of China’s 293 regional cities.The index is mainly influenced by the urban highway transport capacity,urbanization level and population density.It can provide evidence for the management of the urban public health social vulnerability.In conclusion,this paper analyzes the impact of public health events on cities from the perspective of social vulnerability assessment.Combined with the actual situation of COVID-19 epidemic,we calculate the public health social vulnerability index of in China’s 293 regional cities.Moreover,we verify that the proposed social vulnerability index of public health can provide reference for urban public health event management and decision-making.更多还原