【作者】 刘玲；

【导师】 彭剑波；

【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 应用经济学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 保障措施是一种以限制进口数量、调整进口配额和提高进口关税为实施方式的贸易救济措施。相比于反倾销、反补贴,保障措施实施条件更严苛,其针对正常贸易竞争行为,对所有国家进口产品非歧视性对待,不要求进口水平的绝对降低,对我国实施保障措施的主力军是发展中国家,所涉及的行业都关乎国计民生。虽然,我国遭受保障措施案件数仅为反倾销的1/5,但保障措施案件数年均增长率高于反倾销,中国作为世界第一出口贸易大国,发展中国家对华保障措施对中国出口贸易的影响值得关注。本文基于2000年-2019年18个目标发展中国家分7大行业涉案产品相关数据,研究发展中国家对华实施保障措施对中国出口贸易三元边际的影响。出口贸易不仅可以用贸易总额来衡量,还体现在扩展边际、价格边际和数量边际这三元边际。合理设计保障措施涉案产品出口贸易三元边际的计算方法,借助引力模型对涉案产品的案件效力影响和案件数量影响进行LSDV回归分析。得出如下结论:(1)发展中国家对华贸易逆差及出口行业结构的竞争性是其对华实施保障措施的重要原因;(2)中国对发展中国家涉案产品出口属于“重数量和种类轻价格”的出口模式,注重产品内在品质的“高精尖”行业可以在价格边际、数量边际、扩展边际方面实现多维度发展;(3)保障措施对贸易总额、数量边际和价格边际有抑制作用,但中国对涉案发展中国家进行了贸易报复补偿,保障措施实施后期成本高;(4)保障措施对我国出口贸易扩展边际的抑制作用大于数量边际,对价格边际抑制作用不明显;多数涉案行业对数量边际的增长做出贡献,对价格边际和扩展边际的增长没有贡献。为了中国更好的应对发展中国家实施的保障措施,维护中国出口贸易利益,提出如下对策建议:(1)加快出口产品结构转型升级,完善出口贸易防控机制;(2)熟悉他国保障措施国内立法,做好科学积极应诉准备;(3)平衡与发展中国家贸易利益,推动投资替代出口发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Safeguard measure is a kind of trade remedy measure which is implemented by restricting import quantity,adjusting import quota and raising import tariff.Compared to anti-dumping,countervailing,safeguard measures’ implementation is tougher.It targets normal trade competition practices.It treats imports from all countries without discrimination.No absolute reduction in the level of imports is required The main force of safeguard measures against China is developing countries,and the industries involved are all relevant to the national economy and people’s livelihood.Although the number of safeguard cases in China was only 1/5 of anti-dumping cases,the annual growth rate of safeguard cases was much higher than that of anti-dumping cases.China is the world’s largest export trading country,the impact of developing countries’ safeguard measures on China’s export trade is worth paying attention to.Based on the relevant data of the products involved in 7 industries in 18 target developing countries from 2000 to 2019,this paper studied the impact of developing countries’ safeguard measures on the ternary margin of China’s export trade.Export trade could be measured not only with total trade,but also could be reflected in the expansion of marginal,price marginal and quantity marginal these three marginal.Reasonably designed the calculation method of ternary margin of export trade of products involved in safeguard measures With the help of gravity model,LSDV regression analysis was carried out on the influence of case effectiveness and case number of the products involved in the case.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)Trade deficit and industry competition were important reasons for developing countries to implement safeguard measures against China;(2)China’s export to developing countries of the products involved belonged to the export mode of "valuing quantity and type more than price".Emphasis on the inherent quality of products "sophisticated" industry can achieve multidimensional development in price margin,quantity margin,expansion margin;(3)Safeguard measures have a restraining effect on trade volume,quantity margin and price margin.China has retaliated against the developing countries involved in the case,and the cost of implementing the safeguard measures was high in the later stage;(4)The restraining effect of safeguard measures on the expansion margin of China’s export trade was greater than the quantity margin,and the restraining effect on the price margin was not obvious.Most of the industries involved contribute to the growth of quantity margin,but not to the growth of price margin and spread margin.In order to better deal with the safeguard measures implemented by developing countries and safeguard the interests of China’s export trade,the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward:(1)Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of export product structure,and improve the prevention and control mechanism of export scale;(2)Be familiar with other countries’ domestic legislation on safeguard measures and be prepared to respond to lawsuits;(3)Balance trade interests with developing countries and promote investment to replace export trade development.更多还原