【作者】 王宇；

【导师】 赵杨；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 区域经济学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 中国经济自改革开放后持续保持高速增长,表现为GDP增速高且增长持续时间长,被世界誉为“增长奇迹”。土地财政自2004年作为一个专有名词出现后,有关于它对中国社会和经济的诟病不绝于耳,比如它可能导致财政金融风险、房价泡沫、增加贫富差距等弊端,但是土地财政在中国经济和制度的发展中批而不倒,在于它有着推动中国经济增长的内在逻辑。由于地方经济发展的财政需要,地方政府的土地财政规模不断扩大,这引起了学术界的广泛关注,但目前对于土地财政对经济增长的影响研究依然没有明确的结论。因此在我国经济发展进入新常态的背景下,对土地财政进行研究依然对我国未来的经济发展有重要意义。就目前各地区的土地财政现状而言,地方政府的平均财政收入50%以上来自于土地出让金收入,可见地方政府对土地财政的依赖较深。本文对土地财政对中国经济高速增长起着怎样的作用,东、中、西部土地财政规模存在怎样的差异且对经济增长产生怎样的影响进行了相关探讨。本文在前人研究的基础上,选取2005-2017年中国262个地级市形成面板数据,对土地财政对经济增长的影响进行考察,不仅考察了土地财政对经济增长的线性关系,还加入了土地财政的二次项,探究其非线性关系;并将262个地级市分为东中西三个区域,以此考察土地财政的区域差异性。基于本文的理论和实证分析得出以下结论:地区土地财政对经济增长有显著的促进作用;同时地区土地财政与地区经济增长存在非线性的关系,两者之间的曲线呈现倒“U”型。这种倒“U”型的关系说明了在某一土地财政规模下,对经济增长影响可能为正向也可能为负向的;东中西部三大区域的土地财政均有利于经济增长,中西部的土地财政对经济增长的推动作用大于东部地区,西部地区的回归结果并没有出现倒“U”型的曲线特征,说明西部地区的土地存量比较充足,还存在开发利用空间。为使我国经济实现区域经济均衡增长,要明确土地财政对经济增长的作用机制、清晰认识土地财政的利与弊,并且准确把握土地财政对地区经济增长的影响。更要从我国实际经济发展阶段出发,土地财政对投资和经济增长有一定的刺激作用,且投资倾向会对地区的产业结构的调整有着重要贡献,同样经济增长反过来也作用于投资,从而影响土地财政政策的发挥和应用。尽管中国土地财政在部分地区已经逐渐稳定,理性规划土地财政的规模和模式并利用其溢出效应规划地区的产业布局也会对经济增长有一定的促进作用,因此本文的实证结果对我国未来土地财政的应用和转型有一定的借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has maintained rapid growth,which is characterized by high GDP growth rate and long growth period,and is known as the "growth miracle" by the world.Land finance since 2004 as a proper noun,about its criticism of Chinese society and economy,such as it may lead to financial risks,the housing bubble,and increase the gap between rich and poor,but the land finance in the development of Chinese economy and the system to fail,is that it has the internal logic to promote the growth of Chinese economy.Due to the financial needs of local economic development,the scale of land finance of local governments has been expanding,which has attracted wide attention from the academic circle.However,at present,the influence of land finance on economic growth has failed to reach a consistent conclusion on the theoretical or empirical level.Therefore,under the background of China’s economic development entering the new normal,land finance is of great significance to China’s future economic development and reform.In terms of the current situation of land finance in various regions,more than 50% of the average fiscal revenue of local governments comes from the revenue of land transfer fees,which shows that local governments have a deep dependence on land finance.This paper discusses the role of land finance in China’s rapid economic growth,the difference of the scale of land finance in the east,the middle and the west,and the influence of land finance on economic growth.On the basis of previous studies,this paper selects the formation panel data of 262prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2017 to investigate the impact of land finance on economic growth.It not only investigates the linear relationship between land finance and economic growth,but also adds the quadratic term of land finance to explore its nonlinear relationship.The 262 prefecture-level cities are divided into three regions,the east,the west and the west,to investigate the regional differences of land finance.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis of this paper,the following conclusions are drawn: regional land finance has a significant promoting effect on economic growth;At the same time,there is a nonlinear relationship between regional land finance and regional economic growth,and the curve between them shows an inverted "U" shape.This inverted U-shaped relationship shows that under a certain scale of land finance,the influence on economic growth may be positive or negative.The land finance in the eastern,central and western regions is all conducive to economic growth.The land finance in the central and western regions plays a greater role in promoting economic growth than that in the eastern region.The regression results in the western region do not show the inverted "U" curve characteristic,indicating that the land stock in the western region is relatively sufficient and there is still room for development and utilization.In order to realize the balanced growth of regional economy,it is necessary to make clear the mechanism of land finance on economic growth,clearly understand the advantages and disadvantages of land finance,and accurately grasp the impact of land finance on regional economic growth.Moreover,from the perspective of China’s actual economic development stage,land finance can stimulate investment and economic growth to a certain extent,and investment tendency will make an important contribution to the adjustment of regional industrial structure.In the same way,economic growth in turn also acts on investment,thus affecting the play and application of land finance policies.Despite China’s land finance in some areas have stable gradually,the promoting effect on economic growth tends to fade,rational planning of land use scale and mode of finance and its spillover effect planning area industry layout will be to have a certain role in promoting economic growth,so is the empirical results obtained in this paper the application of the future of our country land finance and transformation have certain reference significance.更多还原