【作者】 李博；

【导师】 王勇；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 面对目前全球气候持续变暖的现实背景,缓解气温持续上升问题已然成为世界各国达成的共识。为此,世界各国均纷纷提出了自己的节能减排目标,并积极采取节能减排措施。2017年,作为发展中国家的中国释放的二氧化碳排放量的世界占比约为27%,已经远超位居其后的美国(15%)和欧盟(10%),高居世界碳排放总量排名第一位。为解决中国碳排放的问题,在2009年,中国政府提出了到2020年中国碳强度同比2005年下降40%-45%的目标,并于2014年提出了到2030年二氧化碳排放达到峰值且将努力早日达峰,非化石能源占一次能源消费比重提高到20%左右的承诺。建筑业作为中国存在严重的高能耗、高碳排和低能效问题的国家支柱产业,经济增长方式仍是以肆意消耗能源为代价的粗放型增长,建筑业已然成为中国节能减排的重点研究对象。在维持建筑业经济平稳提升的条件下,有效控制中国建筑业的碳排放,推动建筑业可持续发展,实现行业碳减排承诺目标,对中国能否顺利实现2030年碳排放达峰目标影响重大。本文旨在探究不同情景下中国建筑业实现碳排放达峰的情况,在保证行业经济增长的前提下,以节能减排措施为切入点,为中国建筑业碳排放达峰提供一些合理的可行性参考建议。本文在可持续发展理论、绿色经济理论、循环经济理论的理论基础上,利用排放系数法计算中国建筑业碳排放量,并基于因素分解和达峰预测的两个角度,分别对中国建筑业碳排放达峰可行性进行实证研究。首先,利用广义迪氏指数分解法(GDIM)对中国建筑业2001-2017年的碳排放进行因素分解,量化各影响因素的贡献率;其次,构建了基准情景、低碳节能情景、技术突破情景,对中国建筑业2018-2045年在三种情景下的碳排放达峰情况进行了预测。结果显示:第一,2001-2017年中国建筑业碳排放量随GDP变化的趋势大体相同,即随着国民收入水平的不断提高,中国建筑业碳排放量也随之增加。第二,在经济规模因素方面,GDP对中国建筑业碳排放量的累计贡献率最高,劳动生产率和产出碳强度对建筑业碳排放起到抑制作用;在能源消耗因素方面,能源消耗量对碳排放的贡献率始终为正,且持逐年递增的态势,而能源消耗强度和能源消耗碳强度对未来碳排放具有很大的减排潜力;在劳动人口规模因素方面,建筑业劳动人口数量、建筑业劳动人口人均碳排放量、各产业总劳动人口数量、建筑业劳动人口占比对建筑业碳排放呈现促进作用。第三,预测结果显示,基准情景下,中国建筑业将会于2045年实现碳排放达峰,峰值为5093.539万吨;低碳节能情景下,建筑业碳排放达峰的时间为2030年,峰值为3168.558万吨;技术突破情景下,建筑业碳排放达峰的时间最早(2020年),且峰值最低(2900.84万吨)。以上分析可知,在现行政策下,中国建筑业尚且不能完全实现中国2030年碳排放达峰目标,尽快完善中国建筑业的节能减排制度与措施的工作迫在眉睫。与现有研究相比,本文从研究视角、研究方法、研究因素选择上进行了以下创新:(1)基于因素分解和峰值预测的两个视角进行中国建筑业碳排放的研究。根据不同情景下已分解的各影响因素变化速率的设定,对中国建筑业2018-2045年的碳排放趋势进行预测,进而推算出建筑业碳排放量峰值和达峰时间,可以为中国国家层面的2030年碳排放达峰目标的顺利实现提供参考;(2)首次采用GDIM模型对建筑业2001年到2017年的碳排放进行因素分解。GDIM模型不仅能够克服现有指数分解模型的缺陷,还能研究潜在影响因素对碳排放量的影响,且分解结果能够对不同因素之间的关联性进行有效区分,因此避免了出现重复计算的情况,能够更加准确全面地把握各因素对建筑业碳排放量变动的真实影响;(3)引入了劳动生产率这一影响因素,考察劳动生产率对建筑业碳排放演变的影响,为建筑业碳排放影响因素的研究提供了新的视角。现有研究中缺乏对中国建筑业碳排放达峰问题的研究,基于此研究缺口,本文试图对中国建筑业2030年碳排放达峰的可行性进行探究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Facing the current background of continuous global warming,it has become a consensus reached by all countries in the world to alleviate the problem of continuous temperature rise.For this reason,countries all over the world have put forward their own energy-saving and emission-reduction targets,and actively take energy-saving and emission-reduction measures.In 2017,China,as a developing country,accounted for approximately 27%of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions,far surpassing the United States(15%)and the European Union(10%),which ranks high in the world’s total carbon emissions ranking.The first one.In order to solve the problem of China’s carbon emissions,in 2009,the Chinese government set a goal of reducing China’s carbon intensity by 40%-45%compared to 2005 by 2020,and in 2014 proposed that carbon dioxide emissions reach its peak by 2030 and will work hard.Promise to reach the peak as soon as possible and increase the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption to about 20%.The construction industry is a national pillar industry with serious problems of high energy consumption,high carbon emissions and low energy efficiency.The economic growth mode is still extensive growth at the cost of wanton consumption of energy.The construction industry has become a key research object for energy conservation and emission reduction in China..Under the conditions of maintaining the steady economic growth of the construction industry,effectively controlling the carbon emissions of China’s construction industry,promoting the sustainable development of the construction industry,and achieving the industry’s carbon emission reduction commitments will have a major impact on whether China can successfully achieve the 2030 carbon emission peak target.This article aims to explore the peaking of carbon emissions in China’s construction industry under different scenarios.Under the premise of ensuring industry economic growth,with energy-saving and emission reduction measures as a starting point,it provides some reasonable feasibility for peaking carbon emissions in China’s construction industry.Refer to suggestions.Based on the theory of sustainable development,green economy,and circular economy,this paper uses the emission coefficient method to calculate the carbon emissions of China’s construction industry.Conduct empirical research on the feasibility of peak emissions.First,use the Generalized Di Index Decomposition Method(GDIM)to decompose the carbon emissions of China’s construction industry from 2001 to 2017 to quantify the contribution rate of each influencing factor;secondly,construct a benchmark scenario,a low-carbon energy-saving scenario,and a technological breakthrough scenario,Predicts the peak carbon emissions of China’s construction industry from 2018 to 2045 under three scenarios.The results show that:First,the carbon emission of China’s construction industry changes with GDP from 2001 to 2017.The trend is roughly the same,that is,as the national income level continues to increase,the carbon emission of China’s construction industry also increases.Second,in terms of economic scale,GDP has the highest cumulative contribution rate to carbon emissions in China’s construction industry.Labor productivity and output carbon intensity have a depressing effect on carbon emissions in the construction industry;in terms of energy consumption factors,energy consumption has The contribution rate of carbon emissions is always positive,and it is increasing year by year.Energy consumption intensity and energy consumption carbon intensity have great potential for reducing carbon emissions in the future;in terms of the size of the workforce,the number of workers in the construction industry Per capita carbon emissions of the construction industry’s labor population,the total labor population of various industries,and the proportion of the construction industry’s labor population have promoted carbon emissions in the construction industry.Third,the forecast results show that under the baseline scenario,China’s construction industry will reach its peak carbon emissions in 2045,with a peak of 50,935,39 million tons;under the low-carbon energy-saving scenario,the peak time for the construction industry’s carbon emissions is 2030,the peak It is 31,685,580 tons;under the technological breakthrough scenario,the construction industry’s carbon emissions peak time is the earliest(2020),and the peak is the lowest(29,084 million tons).The above analysis shows that under the current policies,China’s construction industry has not yet fully achieved China’s 2030 carbon emission peak target,and it is urgent to improve China’s construction industry’s energy conservation and emission reduction system and measures as soon as possible.Compared with existing research,this article has made the following innovations from the perspectives of research perspectives,research methods,and selection of research factors:(1)Research on China’s construction industry carbon emissions based on two perspectives of factor decomposition and peak prediction.According to the setting of the rate of change of the decomposed influencing factors under different scenarios,the carbon emission trend of China’s construction industry from 2018 to 2045 is predicted,and the peak and peak time of the construction industry’s carbon emissions can be calculated at the national level.To provide a reference for the smooth realization of the carbon emission peak target of 2030;(2)For the first time,the GDIM model was used to factorize the carbon emissions of the construction industry from 2001 to 2017.The GDIM model can not only overcome the shortcomings of the existing index decomposition model,but also study the impact of potential influencing factors on carbon emissions,and the decomposition result can effectively distinguish the correlation between different factors,thus avoiding double counting.,To be able to more accurately and comprehensively grasp the true impact of various factors on the changes in carbon emissions of the construction industry;(3)Introduce the influencing factor of labor productivity to examine the impact of labor productivity on the evolution of carbon emissions in the construction industry,which is The study of factors provides a new perspective.There is a lack of existing research on the issue of peaking carbon emissions in China’s construction industry.Based on this research gap,this article attempts to explore the feasibility of peaking carbon emissions in China’s construction industry in 2030.更多还原