【作者】 李峰；

【导师】 姜艳萍；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 项目管理（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 在工程项目过程中,许多不确定因素的存在会导致风险,这些风险以不同严重程度影响着工程项目的顺利实施。因此,对于项目而言,风险管理是非常重要的。适当管理好项目中的风险,才能保证项目的顺行。本文以B钢厂精轧机改造项目为研究对象,在对项目风险理论进行阐述的基础上,按照风险识别、风险评价、风险控制等风险管理模式,运用风险管理科学方法与手段,对整个精轧机设备改造项目进行了风险识别、风险评价以及风险应对。首先,在项目工作分解结构分析的基础上,采用德尔菲法识别出风险因素,并对风险因素进行归纳、分类,建立了 B钢厂精轧机改造项目的初步风险识别清单;然后,采用德尔菲方法得到每个风险因素的发生概率;再使用层次分析法得到了每个风险因素相对于风险的权重,最终得到每个风险因素的综合权重,并依此建立了 B钢厂精轧机改造项目风险因素分级表,最后根据前面风险因素评价的结果制定了相应的应对方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays,engineering project is becoming more and more complex.It takes many uncertain factors to the project.These risks affect the smooth implementation of the project with different severity.Therefore,risk management is very important for projects.It is useful to manage the risks properly in the project to ensure the project’s compliance.The finish mill renovation project in B rolling plant as the research object,the theory of project risk on the basis,according to the risk identification,risk evaluation,risk control and risk management modes,using scientific methods and means,and risk management of the whole finishing mill equipment renovation project of the risk identification,risk assessment and risk response.Based on the WBS of the project,Delphi method is used to identify the risk factors,and then summarize and classify them,and establish a preliminary risk identification checklist for this project.Then,the occurrence probability of each risk factor was obtained by using the Delphi method.The analytic hierarchy process is used to obtain the weight of each risk factor relative to the risk,and finally get the comprehensive weight of each risk factor,and establish a risk factor grading table of the finish mill renovation project in B rolling plant,according to the risk factor grading table made the corresponding responses.更多还原