【作者】 王翔；

【导师】 薛东剑； 廖紫骅；

【作者基本信息】 成都理工大学 ， 测绘工程（专业学位）， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 位于喜马拉雅山脉中部的中国藏西南地区,是我国乃至世界冰碛湖溃决灾害频发的重灾区之一。同时,该地区作为国家“一带一路”战略面向南亚的重要通道之一,各项发展规划正在逐步实施。因此,面对日益严峻的冰碛湖溃决灾害威胁,开展藏西南地区冰碛湖溃决灾害防灾减灾的应用研究势在必行。目前在全球气候变暖的背景下,关于冰碛湖灾害的研究多集中于冰碛湖溃决致灾机制、致灾诱因、冰碛湖溃决评价方法、区域冰碛湖识别及变化监测、冰碛湖溃决灾害链、冰碛湖溃决洪水泥石流流量模拟等方面。但不同的研究方向由于其独特性存在各自为战的局面,使得冰碛湖溃决灾害缺乏一套行之有效的系统性防灾减灾应用体系。本文选取藏西南地区冰碛湖为研究对象,从冰碛湖动态变化遥感监测、冰碛湖溃决灾害易发性评价及冰碛湖溃决洪水泥石流灾害模拟这三个独立的研究方向出发,提出构建“监测-评价-模拟”的冰碛湖溃决灾害防灾减灾体系,实现防灾减灾应用体系在理论和方法上的系统性与独立性统一。基于文献数据,采用遥感解译与文献资料推算分别获取冰碛湖与母冰川的面积信息、相关评价因子及模拟参数。运用空间信息技术、数学模型、水文动力模型,分别开展研究区典型冰碛湖动态变化的监测与分析、冰碛湖溃决评价因子的优化和易发性评价模型的建立及冰碛湖溃决泥石流灾害的数值模拟研究。以期为地区冰碛湖灾害防治提供合理的应用理论与方法体系。本文主要开展如下工作:(1)首先,基于近40年的长时间序列遥感动态监测结果得知,典型冰碛湖整体扩张趋势明显,其面积增长率和扩张速率相对较高,典型冰碛湖的溃决风险不断增大,其中龙巴萨巴、绒辖藏布冰湖、强宗克措、杠西措及吉莱普措尤为突出。而由于母冰川面积和储量较小导致水补给很少的缘故,甚至已无母冰川补给,吓曲措及宗克错的面积变化微弱。通过母冰川影响因素的分析,母冰川的规模和退缩状况是影响典型冰碛湖动态变化的重要因素之一。(2)其次,基于灰色关联度模型与逻辑回归模型的结合,开展冰碛湖溃决评价参数的选取和评价模型的建立。得到冰碛湖两岸及后侧崩滑发育程度、母冰川积雪区平均坡度、母冰川冰舌坡度、母冰川裂隙发育程度及冰碛湖面积5个评价参数,并建立了冰碛湖溃决易发性评价模型,且模型可信度高。结果表明该评价模型在冰啧湖溃决灾害易发性评价方面具有较好的适用性。(3)最后,运用FLO-2D模型对历史溃决典型冰碛湖(次仁玛措冰碛湖)进行溃决泥石流灾害模拟。将模拟区域内溃决灾害模拟结果与现场实际测算数据对比得知,模拟误差较小,这与实际溃决情况吻合度较好。结果表明FLO-2D模型较好的适用于典型冰碛湖溃决泥石流灾害的模拟工作。(4)本文建立了“监测-评价-模拟”的冰碛湖灾害防灾减灾应用流程体系,实现了冰碛湖灾害遥感监测、易发性评价、数值模拟的有机结合。为藏西南区域风险防治与应对提供一种新的应用思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Southwest Tibet of China is located in the middle of Himalayas.It is one of the most serious areas of glacier lake outburst flood in China and even in the world.At the same time,the region is one of the important channels for the country’s “The Belt and Road”strategy to face South Asia,and various development plans are being gradually implemented.Therefore,in the face of the increasingly serious threat of glacier lake outburst flood,it is imperative to carry out the application research of moraine lake outburst disaster prevention and mitigation in southwest Tibet.At present,under the background of global warming,the research on glacier lake outburst flood mainly focuses on the mechanism,cause,evaluation method,regional moraine lake identification and change monitoring,glacier lake outburst flood chain,simulation of cement flow in glacier lake outburst flood and so on.Although these research directions have made great progress in the exploration of certain theories and methods,due to the uniqueness of different research directions in theories and methods,these research directions have different research situations to some extent.However,due to the uniqueness of different research directions,the moraine lake outbreak disaster lacks an effective and systematic application system for disaster prevention and mitigation.Therefore,in this paper,the moraine lake in southwest Tibet is selected as the research object.From the three independent research directions of moraine lake dynamic change remote sensing monitoring,glacier lake outburst flood flood prone evaluation and glacier lake outburst flood debris flow disaster simulation,the author proposes to build a combination of "monitoring-evaluation-simulation" moraine lake outburst disaster prevention and mitigation system to realize the unity of systematicness and independence of the application system of disaster prevention and reduction in theory and method.Based on literature and related data,remote sensing interpretation and literature data calculation were used to obtain the area information,relevant evaluation factors and simulation parameters of moraine lake and mother glacier,respectively.Using spatial information technology,mathematical and hydrodynamic model,the monitoring and analysis of the dynamic changes of typical moraine lakes in the study area,the optimization of the evaluation factors of the moraine lake outburst and the establishment of the susceptibility evaluation model and numerical simulation study on the debris flow disaster of moraine lake are conducted,respectively.In order to provide a reasonable application theory and method system for the prevention and control of glacier lake outburst flood.The main research results of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the long-term remote sensing monitoring in the past 40 years,the overall expansion trend of the typical moraine lake is obvious,its area growth rate and expansion rate are relatively high,and the risk of collapse of the typical moraine lake is increasing,which is highlighted by Longbasaba,Rongxiazangbu,Qiangzongkeco,Gangxico and Jilipuco.Due to the small area and reserves of the mother glacier,there is little recharge,and even there is no replenishment of the mother glacier.The area of scared measures Xiaquco and Zongkeco changes slightly.Through the analysis of the influencing factors of the mother glaciers,the scale and retreat of the mother glaciers is one of the important factors affecting the dynamic change of the typical moraine lake.(2)Based on the combination of the grey correlation model and the logistic regression model,the selection of the evaluation parameters and the establishment of the evaluation model of the Bingyu Lake are carried out.Five evaluation parameters are obtained: the degree of avalanche development on both banks and the back of the lake,the average slope of the mother glacier snow region,the slope of the mother glacier tongue,the degree of crack development of the mother glacier,and the area of the lake.Evaluation model,and the evaluation model is verified by application accuracy.It is shown that the evaluation model can better meet the needs of the assessment of the vulnerability of glacier lake outburst flood.(3)The FLO-2D model is used to simulate the demolition debris flow disaster in the historically typical typical Moraine Lake(Cirenmaco Moraine Lake).After comparing the simulation results of the disaster in the simulation area with the actual measured data in the field,it is concluded that the simulation error is small,and it is in good agreement with the actual defeat situation.The results show that the FLO-2D model is better suitable for the simulation of typical glacier lake outburst flood.(4)This article establishes the "monitoring-evaluation-simulation" application process system of the moraine lake disaster prevention and mitigation,and realizes the organic combination of remote monitoring,vulnerability assessment and numerical simulation of the moraine lake disaster.It provides a new application idea for risk prevention and response in southwestern Tibet.更多还原