【作者】 姜涛；

【导师】 吕常智； 王红；

【作者基本信息】 山东科技大学 ， 工程硕士（专业学位）， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 电力是当今经济发展和社会发展的基本需求,经济的快速发展和居民生活水平的提高,使得电力的供应越来越重要。因此对电网进行科学合理的规划刻不容缓。电力市场的需求分析是电网发展规划的重要依据,对电力市场需求进行分析和预测有着非常重要的意义。论文首先根据广饶地区的经济概况、电网现状、全社会用电量和客户历史用电与发展状况,对影响电力市场需求的主要因素和电力市场需求进行了分析;其次,论述了电力市场需求预测原理及特点,分析了电力市场需求预测的经典方法,并对预测方法对广饶地区的适用性进行了分析与选择;然后,对广饶地区电力市场需求进行预测,通过分析历史负荷增长趋势及负荷特性并结合客户历史用电和发展,对全社会用电量进行预测,最终通过分析对比得出预测值;最后,根据广饶地区现有电力供应情况,结合预测值,对广饶地区未来电网的规划给出了建议。论文以电力需求为研究对象,面向广饶地区的经济社会发展现状,结合历史数据和规划数据,对广饶地区未来几年的全社会用电量的电力市场需求进行了分析、预测与验证,基于预测值对广饶地区的电力发展规划提出了有益意见和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Electricity is an essential factor in today’s economic and social development.The rapid development of economy and the improvement of living standards makes the power supply more and more important.This requires a scientific and reasonable power grid planning.And the development planning of power grid is the most important basis of power market demand,so demand for electric power market analysis and forecast has very important.Firstly,according to the economic situation,power grid status,social electricity consumption,historical electricity consumption and development status of customers in Guangrao area,the main factors affecting the demand of power market and the demand of power market are analyzed.Secondly,the principle and characteristics of power market demand forecasting are discussed,the classical methods of power market demand forecasting are analyzed,and the forecasting methods in Guangrao area are also discussed.The applicability is analyzed and selected;then,the electricity market demand in Guangrao area is forecasted,through the analysis of historical load growth trend and load characteristics,combined with the historical power consumption and development of customers,the electricity consumption of the whole society is forecasted,and finally the forecasted value is obtained through analysis and comparison;finally,according to the existing power supply situation in Guangrao area,combined with the forecasted value,the Guangrao area is forecasted.Suggestions for future power grid planning are given.In this thesis,Guangrao area as the research object,by studying the Guangrao regional economic community development situation,combining with historical data and planning data,analyze the future Guangrao region electric power market demand,and draw Guangrao region over the next three years the power consumption of the whole society.This thesis takes the power demand as the research object,faces the economic and social development situation of Guangrao area,combines historical data and planning data,analyses,predicts and validates the power market demand of the whole society in the next few years in Guangrao area,and puts forward beneficial opinions and suggestions for the power development planning of Guangrao area based on the predicted value.更多还原