【作者】 王晶；

【导师】 李春玲；

【作者基本信息】 燕山大学 ， 会计学， 2020， 硕士

【副题名】基于管理者认知偏差的分析

【摘要】 投资决策作为企业三大财务决策之一,直接关系企业的价值创造和宏观层面的资源配置,对企业的发展至关重要。但在现实企业中却普遍存在着不同程度的非效率投资现象。本文基于行为金融学中的管理者认知偏差视角,从宏观和微观层面,运用多元回归,分析经济波动、财务业绩持续性对企业非效率投资的影响。本文拓展了行为金融学在投资决策方面的研究,对于加强管理者自我认知,帮助企业管理者规避非效率投资具有重要意义。首先,本文通过梳理近年来关于宏观经济波动、财务业绩持续性与企业非效率投资三者之间相互关系的国内外研究文献,界定了这三者的概念,并阐述了本文的研究背景及理论基础。其次,介绍了我国宏观经济环境的现状、我国企业财务状况及投资现状。再次,以2007-2017年沪深两市A股上市公司为研究样本,运用多元回归分析,实证检验了经济波动对非效率投资产生的影响,财务业绩持续性对企业非效率投资的影响,以及二者对非效率投资的交互作用。研究表明:由于代表性启发式偏差,在经济扩张时期或投资前存在高持续财务业绩的公司有更高水平的投资过度或者更低水平的投资不足。进一步地,经济波动与高财务业绩持续性可以共同促进企业的投资过度,并且可以抑制企业的投资不足。最后,根据本文的研究结论,基于管理者认知偏差视角,从企业内部、第三方机构、监管部门三个层面,提出了加强管理者自我认知,规避企业非效率投资,提高财务业绩的对策与建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one of the three major financial decisions of an enterprise,investment decision is directly related to the value creation of the enterprise and the resource allocation at the macro level,which is crucial to the development of the enterprise.However,the phenomenon of inefficient investment is common in enterprises.Based on the perspective of managers’ cognitive bias in behavioral finance,this paper analyzes the influence of economic fluctuations and financial performance sustainability on the non-efficient investment of enterprises from the macro and micro levels by using multiple regression.This paper expands the research on behavioral finance in investment decision-making,which is of great significance for strengthening managers’ self-cognition and helping managers avoid inefficient investment.First of all,this paper has defined the concepts of macroeconomic volatility,financial performance sustainability and non-efficient investment by combing domestic and foreign research literatures in recent years,and elaborated the research background and theoretical basis of this paper.Secondly,it introduces the status quo of China’s macroeconomic environment,the financial status of China’s enterprises and the status quo of investment.Thirdly,taking the a-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2017 as the research samples,multiple regression analysis was used to empirically test the impact of economic fluctuations on non-efficient investment,the impact of financial performance sustainability on non-efficient investment,and the interaction between the two on non-efficient investment.Research shows that companies in times of economic expansion or with high sustained financial performance before investment have higher levels of overinvestment or lower levels of underinvestment due to representative heuristic bias.Furthermore,economic volatility and high financial performance sustainability can jointly promote the overinvestment of enterprises and restrain the underinvestment of enterprises.Finally,based on the research conclusion of this paper and from the perspective of managers’ cognitive bias,this paper puts forwardcountermeasures and suggestions to strengthen managers’ self-cognition,avoid enterprises’ inefficient investment and improve their financial performance from the perspectives of enterprises’ internal,third-party institutions and regulatory departments.更多还原