【作者】 李琦；

【导师】 贾涛；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 城市道路交通中排放的二氧化碳是城市温室气体的主要来源之一,对其排放清单的估算与时空分布规律的探索,有利于城市道路交通节能减排措施的定量评估与制定,在可持续城市发展中具有重要的研究价值。论文从微观到宏观,从出租车到整个道路交通,系统地研究武汉市道路交通的二氧化碳排放量。在微观层面,构建适用于武汉市出租车的微观尾气排放模型,可以更加精确的估算武汉市出租车的排放量,进而生成微观尾气排放清单;在宏观层面,利用基于平均燃油消耗率的民用车辆二氧化碳排放模型,建立武汉市民用车辆排放清单,从总体上分析社会经济等因素对道路交通二氧化碳排放水平的影响。具体而言,论文研究工作如下:首先,在排放模型的构建部分,以实测出租车轨迹数据和出租车二氧化碳排放量数据为样本数据,利用BP神经网络模型,建立武汉市出租车的微观二氧化碳排放模型,实现微观层面上出租车二氧化碳排放模型的构建;基于强制性国家燃油标准,利用基于车辆生存函数的车辆年龄分布模型与行驶里程模型,实现宏观层面上基于平均燃油消耗率的民用车辆二氧化碳排放模型的构建。其次,在排放清单的反演部分,以海量出租车轨迹数据为实验数据,利用微观出租车二氧化碳排放模型,生成出租车二氧化碳排放清单;以城市车辆统计年鉴数据为实验数据,利用宏观道路交通二氧化碳排放模型,生成民用车辆二氧化碳排放清单。第三,在排放清单的时空分析部分,通过轨迹点的路网匹配将出租车排放量分配到路网及行政区划上,探索其时空分布规律;通过城市交通流数据,将民用车辆二氧化碳排放量分配到行政区划上,利用地理加权回归分析方法,探索道路交通二氧化碳排放量与区域社会经济水平的关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Carbon dioxide emission from urban road traffic is one of the main sources of urban greenhouse gases.The estimation of its emission inventory and the exploration of its spatial and temporal distribution are conducive to the quantitative assessment and formulation of urban road traffic energy saving and emission reduction measures,which have important research value in sustainable urban development.From micro to macro,from taxis to the whole road traffic,this paper systematically studies the carbon dioxide emissions of road traffic in Wuhan.At the micro level,building a micro-exhaust emission model suitable for Wuhan taxis can more accurately estimate the emission of Wuhan taxis,and then generate a micro-exhaust emission inventory;at the macro level,using the macro-carbon dioxide emission model,the paper establishes the exhaust inventory of Wuhan civil vehicles,and generally analyses the impact of social and economic factors on road traffic carbon dioxide.The impact of emission levels.Specifically,the research work of this paper is as follows:Firstly,in the construction part of the emission model,the micro-carbon dioxide emission model of Wuhan taxi is established by using BP neural network model,taking the measured data of taxi trajectory and the data of carbon dioxide emission of taxi as sample data,so as to realize the construction of the micro-level carbon dioxide emission model of taxi;based on the compulsory national fuel standard,the vehicle survival function is used to construct the micro-level carbon dioxide emission model of taxi.Vehicle age distribution model and driving mileage model are used to build the carbon dioxide emission model of Civil Vehicles Based on average fuel consumption rate at macro level.Secondly,in the inversion part of the emission inventory,taking the massive taxi trajectory data as the experimental data,using the micro-taxi carbon dioxide emission model to generate the taxi carbon dioxide emission inventory;taking the urban vehicle statistical yearbook data as the experimental data,using the macro-road traffic carbon dioxide emission model to generate the civil vehicle carbon dioxide emission inventory.Thirdly,in the part of space-time analysis of emission inventory,the taxi emissions are allocated to the road network and administrative divisions by matching the road network of the track points,and the spatial-temporal distribution law is explored;Based on urban traffic flow data,the carbon dioxide emissions from civil vehicles are allocated to administrative divisions.The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic and regional socio-economic level is explored by using geographically weighted regression analysis method.更多还原