【作者】 马俊；

【导师】 宋国宝；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 环境工程（专业学位）， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 气候变化对全球海洋鱼类生态系统影响巨大而备受关注,然而对陆地的淡水养殖涉及不多。我国是全球淡水养殖最大的国家,研究气候因素对我国水产养殖的影响具有重要意义。本研究采用1974-2015年的统计数据,849样点企业的投入、产出和损失数据,以及全国1974-2015年800多气象站点的观测数据,采用小波分析和回归分析方法,筛选影响中国淡水鱼类养殖的主要气候因素。量化温度和降水对我国25种淡水养殖鱼类的产量、损失量、投入费用的影响;利用蒙特卡罗模拟淡水鱼类养殖业饲料消耗的水资源消耗。基于鱼类成本收益分析,建立我国淡水鱼养殖业的经济收益模型。研究结果如下:（1）1974-2015年鱼类总产量的小波分析表明,最高气温和最低气温与淡水养殖产量在5-10年、10-20年、和25-32年的时间尺度上具有协同的周期震荡规律,表明温度波动与我国淡水养殖鱼类产量波动周期一致;2003-2015年,25种鱼1-8年不同尺度下产量小波方差和气象参数（最高温、最低温、降水、暖日数、冷日数）波动方差具有较好的的线性回归关系,Adj-R²范围为0.51-0.99,其中有23种鱼类对气温的变化敏感,是鱼类产量波动的主导因素。（2）25种淡水养殖鱼类产量与气温的回归分析表明,年最高气温每升高1℃,中国淡水养殖鱼类产量升高15381 kg ha^-1 yr^-1;其中13种鱼类回归系数为正值,3种鱼类回归系数为负值,回归系数范围-3992-6011 kg ha^-1 yr^-1℃^-1;鳗鲡产量受温度影响最大,鲟鱼的回归系数最小,年最低气温对单位面积产量的影响与最高气温产生影响的回归系数符号一致。（3）相对历史30年平均气候,最低气温偏差值每升高1℃,淡水养殖鱼类饲料消耗的水足迹降低10236[2363,（-14433,-6685）]m³ ha^-1 yr^-1;每公顷淡水养殖鱼类的月投入费用升高763元,其中苗种费用占比为93%。淡水养殖鱼类的总收入会随着气温升高而升高,而最高气温偏差会使中国淡水养殖鱼类总收入亏损,最高气温偏差值每升高1℃,中国淡水养殖鱼类总收入亏损5.30×10¹⁰[1.0×10¹⁰,(-7.0×10¹⁰,-3.7×10¹⁰)]元。研究结果,为养殖产业提供了新的科学视角,并为中国淡水养殖业应对气候变化提供了引导方向,对减少水资源损耗具有重要作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Climate change has a great impact on the global marine fish ecosystem and has attracted much attention.However,freshwater aquaculture on land is rarely involved.China is the largest freshwater aquaculture country in the world.It is important to study the impact of climate factors on aquaculture in China.In this study,we used 1974-2015 statistical data,849sample enterprises’input,output and loss data,as well as the observation data of more than800 meteorological stations in China from 1974 to 2015,and used wavelet analysis and regression analysis to screen the main climatic factors affecting freshwater fish farming in China.Quantifying the effects of temperature and precipitation on the output,loss and input cost of 25 species of freshwater aquaculture fish in China,and using Monte Carlo to simulate the water resource consumption of feed consumption in freshwater aquaculture industry.Based on the cost-benefit analysis of fish,the economic benefit model of freshwater fish farming in China was established.The results are as follows:（1）Wavelet analysis of total fish production from 1974 to 2015 shows that the maximum temperature and minimum temperature have synergistic periodic oscillations with freshwater aquaculture production in 5-10 years,10-20 years and 25-32 years,indicating that the temperature fluctuation is consistent with the fluctuation period of freshwater aquaculture fish production in China;in 2003-2015,the wavelet variance and meteorological parameters of 25species of fish yield at different scales of 1-8 years are the highest maximum.The fluctuation variance of temperature,minimum temperature,precipitation,warm days and cold days has a good linear regression relationship.The range of Adj-R² is 0.51-0.99.Among them,23species of fish are sensitive to the change of temperature,which is the dominant factor of the fluctuation of fish production.（2）The regression analysis of the yield and temperature of 25 species of freshwater aquaculture fish showed that the yield of freshwater aquaculture fish in China increased by15381 kg ha^-1 yr^-1 for each year’s maximum temperature rise of 1℃.The regression coefficients of 13 species of fish were positive and that of 3 species were negative,and the range of regression coefficients was-3992-6011 kg ha^-1 yr^-1.The yield of eel was most affected by temperature,and the regression coefficient of sturgeon of sturgeon fish was the smallest.The regression coefficient symbols of the effect of minimum temperature on yield per unit area are consistent with those of maximum temperature.（3）Compared with the average climate in the past 30 years,the water footprint of feed consumption of freshwater cultured fish decreased by 10236[2363,（-14433,-6685）]m³ ha^-1yr^-1 with the lowest temperature deviation increasing by 1℃,and the monthly input cost of freshwater cultured fish increased by 763 yuan per hectare,of which the proportion of seedling cost was 93%.The total income of freshwater aquaculture fish will increase with the increase of temperature,and the maximum temperature deviation will make the total income of freshwater aquaculture fish loss in China.For each increase of the maximum temperature deviation value by 1℃,the total income of freshwater aquaculture fish in China will lose5.30×10¹⁰[1.0×10¹⁰,(-7.0×10¹⁰,-3.7×10¹⁰)]RMB.The research results provide a new scientific perspective for aquaculture industry,and provide a guiding direction for China’s freshwater aquaculture industry to cope with climate change,and play an important role in reducing water resources loss.更多还原