【作者】 陈琦；

【导师】 杨利红；

【作者基本信息】 西安科技大学 ， 会计学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 经济全球化的浪潮推动着我国资本市场的快速发展,行业竞争愈发激烈,加之近年来全球经济危机的影响,使得公司的外部经营融资环境日趋复杂,内部财务营运压力日益增大。在这种局面下,财务风险预警的重要性逐渐显现出来。一套科学、高效的预警方法,能够使公司提早发现风险并及时作出相应的调整,为其长久的发展提供保障。在众多导致公司财务危机的因素中,现金流短缺是十分常见和重要的一项,无论公司规模的大小,资金链断裂都会直接导致公司陷入寸步难行的境地。保持稳定、合理的现金流量,在某种程度上比获得超额利润更加有利于公司的可持续发展。基于此,本论文从现金流量角度对上市公司的财务风险预警进行研究,旨在为相关研究做出一定的补充。本论文首先剖析了财务风险预警的背景及现状,归纳概括了以前学者的学术收获,简述上市公司构建基于现金流量的财务风险预警模型的理论和现实意义;通过阐述财务风险预警和现金流量的相关概念,分析了风险预警的作用和方法的优缺点,以及现金流量指标相比传统财务指标的优越性,为论文的研究奠定理论基础。其次,选取20 16年上海和深圳A股市场首次被ST的29家公司和等量配对的非ST公司,利用58家样本公司2013年——2015年的现金流量项目的财务数据,构建Logistic财务风险预警模型,并对样本公司2016年和2017年的数据进行实证检验,测试模型的预警效果,为论文的研究提供实证依据。最后,根据实证结果,再结合理论分析,得出以下研究结论:①现金流量指标能够有效地预测公司财务风险;②越靠近被特别处理年份模型的财务风险预警效果越好;③各个现金流量指标对预警结果的影响力不同,并提出相应的建议,以期能为上市公司进行现金流量角度的财务风险预警研究提供借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 The wave of economic globalization promotes the rapid development of China’s capital market,and the increasingly fierce competition in the industry,together with the impact of the global economic crisis in recent years,makes the company’s external operating and financing environment increasingly complex,and the internal financial operating pressure is increasing.In this situation,the importance of financial risk early warning is gradually emerged.A set of scientific and ef:ficient early warning methods can enable companies to identify risks early and m.ake corresponding adjustments in time to provide protection for their long-term development.Cash flow shortage is a very common and important factor in many factors leading to financial crisis.No matter the size of the company,the breakdown of the capital chain will directly lead to the company into a difficult situation.To a certain extent,maintaining stable and reasonable cash flow is more conducive to the sustainable development of the company than obtaining excess profits.Based on this,this paper studies the financial risk early warning of listed companies from the perspective of cash flow,aiming to make some supplements for related research.Firstly,this paper analyses the background and current situation of financial risk early warning,summarizes the academic gains of previous scholars,and sketches the theoretical and practical significance of constructing financial risk early warning model based on cash flow for listed companies.By elaborating the concepts of financial risk early warning and cash flow,this paper analyses the advantages and disadvantages of risk early warning and its methods,as well as the advantages of cash flow indicators over traditional financial indicators,which lays a theoretical foundation for the study of this paper.Secondly,taking 29 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market were first listed by ST in 2016 and equivalent matching of Non-ST listed companies as samples,and using the financial data of cash flow projects of 58 sample companies from 2013 to 2015 to construct Logistic financial risk early warning model.And the data of sample companies in 2016 and 2017 are empirically tested to test the early warning effect of the model.The results provide an empirical basis for the study of the paper.Finally,based on the empirical results and theoretical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:①Cash flow index can effectively predict the financial risk of a company.②The closer to the model of the year specially treated,the better the effect of financial risk early warning is.③The impact of cash flow indicators on early warning results is different.And put forward the corresponding suggestions,in order to provide reference for listed companies to carry out cash flow perspective of financial risk early warning research.更多还原