【作者】 李伟；

【导师】 李杏；

【作者基本信息】 南京财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放四十周年,中国经济稳居世界第二,产业结构不断优化,以服务业为主的第三产业很好地发挥了“稳定器”的作用,尤其是以知识技术密集为特点的生产性服务业发挥了巨大的作用。然而2018年以来中美经贸摩擦和国际贸易环境的恶化,显著提升了国际间的服务贸易成本。本文基于生产性服务业层面,探究贸易成本对全要素生产率的影响,并提出相关的政策建议以规避贸易成本上升带来的负面影响。本文采用规范分析和实证分析相结合、定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,以2002-2014年18个国家7个生产性服务业的面板数据进行实证检验。本文在生产性服务业层面展开研究,从直接机制和间接机制两个角度厘清了贸易成本影响全要素生产率的路径。其中,直接机制是指贸易成本的降低通过资源再配置效应和行业技术进步效应直接促进全要素生产率的提升。间接机制是指贸易成本的降低增强了一国的比较优势和二元边际,促进了贸易总量的增长,贸易总量的增长通过自我选择效应、学习效应和技术溢出效应间接提升全要素生产率。根据理论机制分析,并结合中国生产性服务业发展的现实情况,提出了两条假设:一是生产性服务业贸易成本对全要素生产率具有负效应;二是中国生产性服务业贸易成本降低时,全要素生产率的提升幅度相对较小。计量实证方面,使用Novy(2013)改进的引力模型测算双边贸易国生产性服务业的贸易成本,并构建了生产性服务业贸易成本影响全要素生产率的计量模型。使用2002-2014年包括中国在内18个国家7个生产性服务业的面板数据,可用于计量回归分析的样本观测值达13000个。回归结果表明:生产性服务业贸易成本抑制了全要素生产率的提高,验证了本文的假设一。基于国际数据的实证分析发现,生产性服务业贸易成本降低1%时,全要素生产率提升约0.07个百分点;基于中国数据的实证分析发现,生产性服务业贸易成本降低1%时,全要素生产率提升约0.05个百分点,验证了本文的假设二。为了更好地促进我国生产性服务业全要素生产率的提升,提出以下政策建议:一是着力降低进入或退出服务业的沉没成本;二是降低服务企业的融资成本;三是消除贸易壁垒,营造开放公平的国际贸易环境;四是重视高技能人才的培养和使用,由于高技能劳动力对服务业生产率的提升具有显著的积极影响,因此应加强人力资本的积累,充分调动高技能人才的积极性。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the 40 th anniversary of the reform and opening up,China’s economy has remained the second largest in the world,and its industrial structure has been constantly optimized.However,since 2018,the economic and trade frictions between China and the United States and the deterioration of the international trade environment have significantly increased the cost of international trade in services.Based on producer services,this paper explores the impact of trade costs on total factor productivity,and puts forward relevant policy Suggestions to avoid the negative impact of rising trade costs.In this paper,normative analysis and empirical analysis are combined,and qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined to conduct an empirical test on panel data of 7 producer services in 18 countries from 2002 to 2014.This paper conducts research at the level of producer service industry,and clarifies the path of trade cost affecting total factor productivity from both direct and indirect mechanisms.First,the direct mechanism means that the reduction in trade costs directly promotes the improvement of total factor productivity through the effects of resource redeployment and industrial technological advancement.Secondly,the indirect mechanism means that the reduction of trade costs enhances the comparative advantage and binary margin of a country,and promotes the growth of total trade volume.The growth of total trade indirectly boosts total factor productivity through self selection effects,learning effects,and technology spillovers.Finally,based on the analysis of theoretical mechanisms and the reality of the development of China’s producer service industry,two hypotheses are proposed: First,the trade cost of the producer service industry has a negative effect on total factor productivity.Second,when the trade cost of China’s producer service industry decreases,the increase of total factor productivity is relatively small.In terms of measurement evidence,the improved gravitational model of Novy(2013)was used to measure the trade cost of the producer service industry,And construct an econometric model of trade costs affecting total factor productivity.Using panel data for seven production services in 18 countries including China in 2002-2014,the sample observations that can be used for quantitative regression analysis reached 13,000.The regression results show that the trade cost of producer service industry inhibits the increase of total factor productivity,which verifies the hypothesis one in this paper.Based on the international data measurement analysis,the total factor productivity increased by about 0.07 percentage points when the trade cost of the producer service industry decreased by 1%.Based on China’s data measurement analysis,it is found that when the trade cost of the producer service industry is reduced by 1%,the total factor productivity is increased by about 0.05%,which verifies the hypothesis 2 of this paper.In order to promote the improvement of the total factor productivity of China’s productive service industry,the following policy recommendations are proposed: First,focus on reducing the sunk cost of entering or exiting the service industry;second,reducing the financing cost of service enterprises;First,focus on reducing the sunk cost of entering or exiting the service industry;second,reducing the financing cost of service enterprises;The fourth is to attach importance to the cultivation and use of highly skilled personnel.Since highly skilled labor has a significant positive impact on the productivity of the service industry,it is necessary to strengthen the accumulation of human capital and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of highly skilled personnel.更多还原