【作者】 许敏；

【导师】 洪建国；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 产业经济学， 2019， 硕士

【副题名】基于广深两市的实证研究

【摘要】 住房是一种稀缺的特殊商品,具有消费和投资双重属性。房价上涨过快一直是政府、学界、广大百姓密切关注的问题。在过去的十年中,政府出台了一系列遏制房价涨势的调控措施,如限购政策出台到2014年退出再到重启。2017年我国各级政府转变思路,从供需两侧强化协同发展,出台房地产限售政策,坚持“房住不炒”的战略定位,旨在“稳地价、稳房价、稳预期”,引导价格预期回归理性,使房地产市场整体平稳健康发展。房地产限售政策实施的效果怎样,是否具有稳房价的作用,是本文要回答的问题。理论分析中,论文首先从房地产市场失灵入手,分析政府调控房地产市场的必要性,并引入房地产价格“自我支持理论”,分析限售政策调控房价的作用机理,为本文的实证研究提供理论支持。实证分析中,本文在对限售政策实施前后70个大中城市新建商品住宅和二手住房价格环比增速走势进行描述性分析之后,进一步研究不同级别城市的房价变化并重点观察研究广深两市的住房价格变化。考虑到不同房地产市场之间的差异性,本文将房地产市场分成新建商品房和二手房市场,采用原始价格数据分别做了市场检验,考察政策是否有抑制房价上涨的效果。并在此基础上,采用价格环比指数数据,继续检验政策对不同建筑面积住房价格的作用效果,进一步考察限售政策是否有抑制房价过快上涨的作用。本文选用一线城市中的广深两市各主区2016年5月至2018年7月间新建商品房和二手房市场相关的月度数据,采用PSM-DID估计方法,来进行限售政策对住房价格影响的实证研究。本文的研究结论主要包括三点:第一,住房限售政策可以抑制房价过快上涨;第二,限售政策的实施,短期内具有遏制住房价格上涨的作用,但因政策实施时间还较短,长期影响方向不确定;第三,限售政策在不同市场的作用效果有差异,从实证研究来看,对新建商品房市场作用更明显,尤其是对大中户型住房。大多数城市通过实施限售政策来控制房地产市场的供应,减少住房投机行为,引导房地产市场回到合理的预期。更多还原

【Abstract】 Housing is a scarce special commodity with dual attributes of consumption and investment.Housing price rise too fast has been the government,academia,the general public pay close attention to the problem.In the past decade,the government introduced a series of control measures to curb the rise of housing prices,such as the introduction of the purchase restriction policy in 2014 and the resumption of the withdrawal.In 2017,Chinese governments at all levels changed their thinking,strengthened coordinated development from both sides of supply and demand,issued the real estate sales restriction policy,and adhered to the strategic positioning of"housing not speculation",aiming to "stabilize land price,housing price and expectation",guide price expectation to return to rationality,and make the overall stable and healthy development of the real estate market.How effective the implementation of the real estate restriction policy is,whether it has the effect of stabilizing the housing price,is the question to be answered in this paper.In the theoretical analysis,this paper first starts from the real estate market failure,analysis of the necessity of government regulation of the real estate market,introduces the real estate price "self-support theory",analyzes the mechanism of the restriction policy to regulate the housing price,and provides theoretical support for the empirical research of this paper.In the empirical analysis,after descriptive analysis of the month-on-month growth trend of new commercial housing and second-hand housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities before and after the implementation of the sales restriction policy,this paper further studies the housing price changes in cities of different levels and focuses on observing and studying the housing price changes in GuangZhou and ShenZhen.In view of the differences between different real estate markets,this paper divides the real estate market into the new commercial housing market and the second-hand housing market,and USES the original price data to make market tests respectively to investigate whether the policies have the effect of restraining the rise of housing prices.On this basis,the month-on-month price index data are used to continue to test the effect of policies on housing prices of different floor areas,and further investigate whether the restriction policy has the effect of restraining the excessively rapid rise of housing prices.This paper selects the monthly data related to the new commercial housing and second-hand housing market in the main districts of GuangZhou and ShenZhen,two first-tier cities,from May 2016 to July 2018,and USES the PSM-DID estimation method to conduct an empirical study on the impact of the sales restriction policy on housing price.The research conclusions of this paper mainly include three points:first,the housing restriction policy can restrain the housing price from rising too fast;Secondly,the implementation of the sales restriction policy can curb the housing price rise in the short term.Thirdly,the effect of the sales restriction policy is different in different markets.From the empirical study,the effect of the policy on the new commercial housing market is more obvious,especially on the large and medium-sized housing.Most cities control the supply of the real estate market by implementing the restriction policy,reduce the housing speculation,and guide the real estate market back to a reasonable expectation.更多还原