【作者】 韩洁；

【导师】 胡金星；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 产业经济学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 面对房地产市场在过去一段时间过快过热发展的现实,政府部门使用多种政策手段组合出击。而杠杆率作为房地产市场调控的其中一环,在宏观调控力度加大的背景下,杠杆率是否能在对价格的影响中承担有效的作用?不同部门的杠杆率情况又有何表现,是否都对房价有正向的作用?杠杆率对于房价的作用机制到底是怎样的?针对以上几个问题,研究杠杆率的提升对于房地产资产价格的影响具有很强的理论指导作用和现实意义。首先,本文梳理了杠杆率在理论文献中的使用情况、杠杆率作为一种政策工具在理论研究中的有效性相关分析、杠杆率对于经济发展的影响以及杠杆率对于房地产市场的作用机制,建立了杠杆率对房地产市场影响的理论框架;其次,对我国当前房地产市场的现状进行了分析,并对杠杆率指标进行了纵向和横向的比较,关注其趋势性变化以及我国目前的情况在国际社会中所处的位置,同时对房地产市场中杠杆率相关的调控政策进行了梳理;再次,基于前文的研究基础,提出了杠杆率对于房地产市场资产价格影响的数理模型,进一步提出本文需要通过实证验证的主要假设。最后,根据献梳理、模型构建、实证分析的综合结果,提出了相关的政策建议。在实证分析部分,本文以我国30个省(西藏除外)2006-2016年的年度面板数据作为观测样本,借助固定效应模型验证了杠杆率对房地产市场资产价格的促进作用;利用中介效应模型探究了房地产市场预期对于这一作用的中介效应,具体表现为在居民部门杠杆率作用中的部分中介效应,以及在企业部门杠杆率作用中的完全中介效应;使用调节效应模型探究利率对于杠杆率作用的调节作用,但最终未得出显著性的结论。最后,通过分地区的探究以及主要解释变量的替换,进行了稳健性的相关检验。更多还原

【Abstract】 Faced with the reality that the real estate market has overdeveloped over the past period of time,the government has launched a combination of various policy measures to improve.As one of the part of regulatory measures for the real estate market,can leverage ratio play an effective role in the impact on prices? What are the performances of the leverage ratios of different departments,and do they all have a positive effect on housing prices? What is the mechanism of leverage on housing prices? Focus on these questions,it has a strong theoretical guidance and practical significance to study the impact of the leverage ratio on the real estate asset price.First,this paper reviews the leverage mentioned in the theoretical literature,the correlation analysis of leverage as a policy instrument,the impact of leverage on economic development,and the mechanism of leverage on the real estate market.Secondly,this paper analyzes the current situation of China’s real estate market,compares the indicator of leverage ratio vertically and horizontally,pays attention to its trend changes and its position in the international community,and sorts out the regulation and control policies related to leverage in the real estate market.Thirdly,based on the previous research,the mathematical model of leverage ratio on the asset price of real estate market is put forward,and the main hypothesis is further proposed.Finally,the paper summarizes the relevant conclusions and proposes relevant policy recommendations.In the empirical analysis part,this paper takes the annual panel data of 30 provinces(excluding Tibet)in China from 2006 to 2016 as the observation samples,uses the fixed effect model to verify the promotion effect of leverage ratio on the asset price of the real estate market..The results also show some mediating effects in the role of leverage in the residential sector,and the full mediating effect in the role of leverage in the corporate sector through exploring the mediating effect of real estate market expectations on this effect.It’s also found in this paper that the adjustment effect of the interest rate on this effect is not significant.Finally,it conducts a correlation test of robustness through the exploration of sub-regions and the replacement of the main explanatory variables.更多还原